To prevent thread drift, a new topic!
It means his future ERA is likely to trend towards his current FIP (moreso than his current ERA.) FIP correlates higher to future ERA than ERA does.Both stats I feel don't accurately measure the worth of a given player. I feel they can be useful tools just like batting average or OBP can be a useful tool but shouldn't be the end all in a conversation. Just because a pitcher has a high FIP and a low ERA doesn't mean he is a worthless pitcher or will regress to some sort of mean.
Further, how does "worthless" enter into the conversation? FIP, xFIP and other DIPS try to measure pitching performance more accurately than ERA. A pitcher can still be good with a higher FIP than ERA. Lo and verily, many are.
Well there's going out on a limb.There are plenty of examples where the FIP and ERA do not match up
It's expected that current FIP and ERA don't match.
Last year among qualified SP, the range of differences between FIP and ERA was -1.28 to +1.16. 2010 Jason Hammel (for example) finished thusly:
2010 Clay Bucholz (at the other end of the spectrum):
As you see, their 2010 FIPs are closer to their 2011 ERA than their 2010 ERA. FIP is a more accurate representation of pitching performance than ERA which is a measure of pitching (both yours and sometimes someone else's), defense and luck/nature/kismet.
How is "great year" being measured? By ERA? That's a non-starter. By FIP? If a pitcher has a "great year" with FIP and his FIP is higher than his ERA, please believe he's really had a "great year."but at the end of the year a pitcher will have an excellent year. It just isn't or shouldn't be a rule, like many here are making it out to be, that if a pitcher has a low ERA and a higher FIP that he will somehow not have a great year in the end.
The point I'm making is that FIP more accurately measures pitching performance than ERA because it takes away the majority of elements outside the pitcher's control.
The other point I'm making is that current FIP more accurately predicts future ERA than current ERA.