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Thread: Streaky offense

  1. #1
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Streaky offense

    Here is a chart of 3 teams along with the MLB average for percentage of games with X runs scored. All of MLB is the blue line. The X-axis is runs and the Y-axis is percentage of games played with that many runs scored. So, for example, the yellow team has scored 4 runs in over 20% of it's games played.



    So, which team looks "streakiest?" Which team is least "streaky?"
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  3. #2
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    Re: Streaky offense

    The Red line looks to be the team that has benefitted the most from a few high run explosions, 5% of their games have been 11 runs, 3% have been 13 runs. They've also had 28% of their games with 3 runs or fewer. Compared to 18% for yellow and 24% for Green.

    I'm adding up rough guesstimates so forgive me if my numbers are a little off.
    The yellow and green lines look to be less streaky, but it appears as though the green team is the "better" offense overall with higher percentages of 5,7,8 and 9 run games while the yellow line has higher percentages of 4 and 6 run games.

    SO who's who?
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  4. #3
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Streaky offense

    The yellow IS more inconsistent. The ideal consistency should follow the bell curve (like the blue). That there isn't a gradual distribution shows it's not terribly consistent.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    The Red line looks to be the team that has benefitted the most from a few high run explosions, 5% of their games have been 11 runs, 3% have been 13 runs. They've also had 28% of their games with 3 runs or fewer. Compared to 18% for yellow and 24% for Green.
    Good points. Some notes:

    Red: in 36% of their games, they've scored 6 or more runs
    Yellow: has the highest percentage of games scoring exactly 4 runs
    Green: 40% of their scoring is in 5 to 7-run games

    I'm adding up rough guesstimates so forgive me if my numbers are a little off.
    The yellow and green lines look to be less streaky, but it appears as though the green team is the "better" offense overall with higher percentages of 5,7,8 and 9 run games while the yellow line has higher percentages of 4 and 6 run games.

    SO who's who?
    I shall reveal, LATER!
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    The yellow IS more inconsistent. The ideal consistency should follow the bell curve (like the blue). That there isn't a gradual distribution shows it's not terribly consistent.
    I find your definition of "consistent" funny. Consistent, to me, means scoring the same number of runs each time, a small standard deviation - not how closely you mirror a right skewed distribution.

    A team that scores it's average amount of runs every game will fair better than one that scores the same average but has some low scoring some high scoring games. So for me, if you're looking at a team that scores 4.5 runs a game, I'd want 81 4-run games and 81 5-run games. Those giant outbursts are usually a waste.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I find your definition of "consistent" funny. Consistent, to me, means scoring the same number of runs each time, a small standard deviation - not how closely you mirror a right skewed distribution.

    A team that scores it's average amount of runs every game will fair better than one that scores the same average but has some low scoring some high scoring games. So for me, if you're looking at a team that scores 4.5 runs a game, I'd want 81 4-run games and 81 5-run games. Those giant outbursts are usually a waste.
    So, is the chart a good way to look at it?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  8. #7
    Dyslexic Taquitos Quatitos's Avatar
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    The yellow IS more inconsistent. The ideal consistency should follow the bell curve (like the blue). That there isn't a gradual distribution shows it's not terribly consistent.
    Personally I would think the yellow is the most consistent since it had the lowest percentage of 1-3 run games. So if you are consistantly scoring 4+ runs you have a good chance of winning a lot of games with decent pitching.

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    Re: Streaky offense

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    So, is the chart a good way to look at it?
    I think it is, but let's say you change the chart from each run as a data point to a more general approach. Break it up by 0-3 runs, 4-6 runs, 7-9 runs, and 10+ runs.

    I'd be interested in seeing what that looks like.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I find your definition of "consistent" funny. Consistent, to me, means scoring the same number of runs each time, a small standard deviation - not how closely you mirror a right skewed distribution.

    A team that scores it's average amount of runs every game will fair better than one that scores the same average but has some low scoring some high scoring games. So for me, if you're looking at a team that scores 4.5 runs a game, I'd want 81 4-run games and 81 5-run games. Those giant outbursts are usually a waste.
    For example, the Giants offense is consistent. Is that a good thing?
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I find your definition of "consistent" funny. Consistent, to me, means scoring the same number of runs each time, a small standard deviation - not how closely you mirror a right skewed distribution.

    A team that scores it's average amount of runs every game will fair better than one that scores the same average but has some low scoring some high scoring games. So for me, if you're looking at a team that scores 4.5 runs a game, I'd want 81 4-run games and 81 5-run games. Those giant outbursts are usually a waste.
    I admit I didn't phrase it properly, but that notwithstanding, I'm surprised you thought that was my ideal of "consistent" since I've been one of the more outspoken persons on this forum this year about consistency and distribution of runs.

    Of course scoring 4 & 5 or 5 & 6 runs every game would be ideal. I was more relating it to this chart and comparing the lines to one another than referring to the ideal factory condition a team should have in a scoring model.

    In a practical sense, you'd want the distribution to follow more of the bell curve shape of the league average (provided, of course, you can't score 4 & 5 every game of the season).
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    For example, the Giants offense is consistent. Is that a good thing?
    Exactly. Consistency is far, far, secondary to overall performance. I'll take an inconsistent 4.5 r/g over a consistent 3.5 any day.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    I admit I didn't phrase it properly, but that notwithstanding, I'm surprised you thought that was my ideal of "consistent" since I've been one of the more outspoken persons on this forum this year about consistency and distribution of runs.

    Of course scoring 4 & 5 or 5 & 6 runs every game would be ideal. I was more relating it to this chart and comparing the lines to one another than referring to the ideal factory condition a team should have in a scoring model.

    In a practical sense, you'd want the distribution to follow more of the bell curve shape of the league average (provided, of course, you can't score 4 & 5 every game of the season).
    I guess I still don't agree. The league average curve is just that. Even though you can't score 4 & 5 every single night, I'd still prefer to have a higher concentration around the mean than league average.

    Nate, the chart is interesting, but somewhat hard to interpret. I'd be interested to see it as a cumulative percentage -- percent of games in which at least X number of runs were scored. That way, the point to point comparisons would be more intuitive.

    I think the easier way to talk about it is using some basic parameters -- mean, mode, standard deviation. But I think the chart I just described would help visualize those things.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #13
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Offensive consistency seems like the opposite of Pythag. We might have have to call it Cylon.

  15. #14
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    Re: Streaky offense



    OK, how about this. Same teams, I removed the MLB average. Does any one of these teams stick out as looking inconsistent?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Streaky offense

    Given the data in your chart, it would seem Red has the least variation, in a dead heat with yellow. That basically looks like the data from the Reds, Cards, and Brewers respectively -- except you added one run to every game (not sure why). The variation is the same either way. Here's the data with the extra run removed.

    Code:
    	Games	Runs	Runs/G	StDev												
    Red	84	298	4.7	2.94												
    Yellow	84	395	4.7	2.96												
    Green	83	357	4.3	3.33												
    										
    % of Games with at least X runs scored
    	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
    Red	4%	11%	29%	40%	54%	61%	71%	82%	89%	92%	96%	98%	100%	100%	100%	100%
    Yellow	7%	13%	18%	39%	51%	68%	79%	85%	87%	94%	95%	98%	99%	99%	99%	100%
    Green	8%	18%	25%	41%	58%	66%	82%	89%	93%	96%	96%	99%	99%	99%	100%	100%
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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