Which Dragon Will Be The Mightiest?

[dougdirt]

The other guys are "toolsy" players with great upside. But how often have we seen those tools never amount to a whole package. Right now, Torreyes has it all put together. Defense, offense...both stellar.

To play devils advocate: About as often as we have seen undersized guys hit well in the lower level of the minors and not continue it at the higher levels.

[Brutus]

I think Duran will be Wily Mo redux

[redsof72]

Trying to project low-A players is a tough call. How do you try to project Yorman? How do you predict whether Hamilton will hit? Tucker is probably a guaranteed major leaguer and the only one on the list that you could say that about.

If you take Tucker out just for conversation sake, and just look at all-around baseball skills on July 7, 2011, Torreyes is so far ahead of the other three guys that there is no comparison whatsoever. If you just judge him on what he is right now, and he is the youngest of the four, he, at 5'7", 145 lbs., and 18 years old, is a man among boys when compared to the other three in terms of baseball skills.

Notice that the team instantly started winning when Torreyes got there. Home run tonight. I certainly am not one to say whether a player of that size can play in the bigs. He will need to get stronger, for sure.

Duran is a tough call. He has awesome power and seems to be getting better. I like the kid. But if you have seen him play left field, how do you project that? With his 6'7" frame, he struggles to catch any ball if his feet are not stationary at the time the ball arrives. He just does not have the coordination. If he has to reach out with his glove while on the move, you can usually forget it. Hard to say how much he can improve on that. He might be able to be a RH Adam Dunn if he really, really improves and everyone would take that in a heartbeat.

Lets look at Yorman. Lets assume his make-up completely changes, because if you do not make that assumption, he has no chance whatsoever of ever seeing a day in the big leagues. So lets make that assumption for the sake of this exercise. Ok, speed is good, but he has very, very poor range in the outfield and rarely do you see him even run full speed to try to catch a ball. They tried playing him in center to start the year and it was a disaster and now he is in right. Power potential is good, but right now you don't see it much in games. Athleticism is good, but you very rarely see him do anything on the field that makes you stand up and say, "that's a prospect." Bat speed is good and can hit the ball like a bullet, but batting average has stayed in the .230's with a lot of strikeouts. Arm strength in the outfield is good, but it takes a backseat to below average overall defensive skills. Hard to really project this player, because you see all the tools, but you don't see any of them manifesting into anything on the field that help his team win a game. Having said all that, I still think there is a chance he starts hitting in the second half. If he does, everyone will be happy. He is young, but not as young as Torreyes, who is a far better player.

I will say this. I have talked to many, many scouts at Dayton games this season and there is no doubt which player they like the most: Hamilton. By far.

[thatcoolguy_22]

Lets look at Yorman. Lets assume his make-up completely changes, because if you do not make that assumption, he has no chance whatsoever of ever seeing a day in the big leagues. So lets make that assumption for the sake of this exercise. Ok, speed is good, but he has very, very poor range in the outfield and rarely do you see him even run full speed to try to catch a ball. They tried playing him in center to start the year and it was a disaster and now he is in right. Power potential is good, but right now you don't see it much in games. Athleticism is good, but you very rarely see him do anything on the field that makes you stand up and say, "that's a prospect." Bat speed is good and can hit the ball like a bullet, but batting average has stayed in the .230's with a lot of strikeouts. Arm strength in the outfield is good, but it takes a backseat to below average overall defensive skills. Hard to really project this player, because you see all the tools, but you don't see any of them manifesting into anything on the field that help his team win a game. Having said all that, I still think there is a chance he starts hitting in the second half. If he does, everyone will be happy. He is young, but not as young as Torreyes, who is a far better player.

I should have read this before voting. I'll be rooting for the little guy now.

[bellhead]

Trying to project low-A players is a tough call. How do you try to project Yorman? How do you predict whether Hamilton will hit? Tucker is probably a guaranteed major leaguer and the only one on the list that you could say that about.

If you take Tucker out just for conversation sake, and just look at all-around baseball skills on July 7, 2011, Torreyes is so far ahead of the other three guys that there is no comparison whatsoever. If you just judge him on what he is right now, and he is the youngest of the four, he, at 5'7", 145 lbs., and 18 years old, is a man among boys when compared to the other three in terms of baseball skills.

Notice that the team instantly started winning when Torreyes got there. Home run tonight. I certainly am not one to say whether a player of that size can play in the bigs. He will need to get stronger, for sure.

Duran is a tough call. He has awesome power and seems to be getting better. I like the kid. But if you have seen him play left field, how do you project that? With his 6'7" frame, he struggles to catch any ball if his feet are not stationary at the time the ball arrives. He just does not have the coordination. If he has to reach out with his glove while on the move, you can usually forget it. Hard to say how much he can improve on that. He might be able to be a RH Adam Dunn if he really, really improves and everyone would take that in a heartbeat.

Lets look at Yorman. Lets assume his make-up completely changes, because if you do not make that assumption, he has no chance whatsoever of ever seeing a day in the big leagues. So lets make that assumption for the sake of this exercise. Ok, speed is good, but he has very, very poor range in the outfield and rarely do you see him even run full speed to try to catch a ball. They tried playing him in center to start the year and it was a disaster and now he is in right. Power potential is good, but right now you don't see it much in games. Athleticism is good, but you very rarely see him do anything on the field that makes you stand up and say, "that's a prospect." Bat speed is good and can hit the ball like a bullet, but batting average has stayed in the .230's with a lot of strikeouts. Arm strength in the outfield is good, but it takes a backseat to below average overall defensive skills. Hard to really project this player, because you see all the tools, but you don't see any of them manifesting into anything on the field that help his team win a game. Having said all that, I still think there is a chance he starts hitting in the second half. If he does, everyone will be happy. He is young, but not as young as Torreyes, who is a far better player.

I will say this. I have talked to many, many scouts at Dayton games this season and there is no doubt which player they like the most: Hamilton. By far.

If we could only give Torreyess Hamilton's body...

[lollipopcurve]

I will say this. I have talked to many, many scouts at Dayton games this season and there is no doubt which player they like the most: Hamilton. By far.

Why do you think this is so, 72? What part substance, and what part hype? Bottom line, a guy has to be able to hit to have an impact, and I have my doubts about Hamilton's hit tool.

[dougdirt]

I will say this. I have talked to many, many scouts at Dayton games this season and there is no doubt which player they like the most: Hamilton. By far.

One thing that I will forever maintain..... scouts overrate the importance of speed by a fairly large margin over any other "tool" someone has. I like Billy Hamilton, but if he were merely fast instead of one of the fastest players in the game, scouts wouldn't view him as the same type of guy they do now IMO. Speed is a complimentary tool, not one you can build your game around. You still need to hit the ball and field the ball. I have very little question that Hamilton will be a plus defender whether he stays at shortstop (meaning he gets more consistent with his throws and decisions) or moves to second base (where his throws won't be as much of an issue). However, whether or not he ever hits is a decently sized question mark right now. Speed is never going to change that.

[mace]

72--just curious: You mentioned talking to a lot of scouts, and them singling out Hamilton. Did those scouts have a chance to see Torreyes, or were most of those conversations prior to his arrival?

[redsof72]

There is going to be some skepticism about Torreyes because of his size and he will have to prove himself at every level. If he gets to a level and struggles, some people are going to be saying, "I told you that would happen." Torreyes is not just short like Joe Morgan, he is small.

The home run that Torreyes hit last night will make a mark on some of the scouts. I will say this about Torreyes: If you take the Torreyes of 2011, with the physical build of a jockey, and the Juan Duran of 2011, who can hit a ball as far as anyone in pro ball, and give them both 500 at-bats over a full season in the same league, it would be interesting to see how their home run totals would compare. It might be closer than you think. That is not a knock on Duran. It might be something in the range of 12-8. Who knows.

Hamilton...I don't think the scouts are influenced much by hype. They see rare athleticism and the ability to do things on the field that few players can do, on offense and defense. No question he has to improve his hitting dramatically. The speed will only get him so far. But when they see him field ground balls 10 feet on the other side of second base or go from first to third on a ground out to the second baseman, they just smile and shake their heads.

It might be interesting to see how Torreyes' presence effects Yorman. You see Yorman do bad things, and people say, "remember how young he is" and Yorman hears that. Then Torreyes comes in, and he is even younger than Yorman, and he doesn't do any of those things. In fact, he plays hard every pitch of every game, and he carries himself as a professional. And so now, that excuse about the age isn't valid anymore. Maybe that gets Yorman going.

[lollipopcurve]

It might be interesting to see how Torreyes' presence effects Yorman. You see Yorman do bad things, and people say, "remember how young he is" and Yorman hears that. Then Torreyes comes in, and he is even younger than Yorman, and he doesn't do any of those things. In fact, he plays hard every pitch of every game, and he carries himself as a professional. And so now, that excuse about the age isn't valid anymore. Maybe that gets Yorman going.

I am not surprised by this observation. I felt there was a good chance Torreyes would open the season in Dayton, and this was one of the reasons. They're pretty much exactly the same age, both from Venezuela. That stuff really matters for these very young international kids. If I'm not mistaken, Yorman has played better since Torreyes arrived.

Hamilton...I don't think the scouts are influenced much by hype. They see rare athleticism and the ability to do things on the field that few players can do, on offense and defense. No question he has to improve his hitting dramatically. The speed will only get him so far. But when they see him field ground balls 10 feet on the other side of second base or go from first to third on a ground out to the second baseman, they just smile and shake their heads.

Yeah. I don't discount the value of athleticism. I guess my hope is that the Reds don't rush him. Let him pile up those LH at bats. As long as he's able to make consistent contact by the time he's in AAA, he's likely a formidable prospect.

The home run that Torreyes hit last night will make a mark on some of the scouts. I will say this about Torreyes: If you take the Torreyes of 2011, with the physical build of a jockey, and the Juan Duran of 2011, who can hit a ball as far as anyone in pro ball, and give them both 500 at-bats over a full season in the same league, it would be interesting to see how their home run totals would compare. It might be closer than you think. That is not a knock on Duran.

Power depends on -- among several things -- bat speed, leverage, strength in the hands and wrists. Stuff that guys any size can have. This comparison of Duran and Torreyes is instructive, I think.

[FireDusty]

The thing about Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran is that they are both teen agers playing in low A. I could see both of them in aa by late next year, which puts them in Louisville by maybe 2013.

Impressive.

[mth123]

I'm late weighing in on this, but I've finally decided on Torryes. I love the superlatives I hear about his defense. The bar is set a lot lower on the offensive side if you don't have to carry a corner spot. He has the hit tool to go with his speed and defense. I recall the Reds having another 2B who was about his size who was pretty darned good. When he becomes an adult he'll probably get a little bigger.

[Benihana]

Duran is a tough call. He has awesome power and seems to be getting better. I like the kid. But if you have seen him play left field, how do you project that? With his 6'7" frame, he struggles to catch any ball if his feet are not stationary at the time the ball arrives. He just does not have the coordination. If he has to reach out with his glove while on the move, you can usually forget it. Hard to say how much he can improve on that. He might be able to be a RH Adam Dunn if he really, really improves and everyone would take that in a heartbeat.

I've always wondered if Duran's future is as a 1B.

And for whatever it's worth, I agree with DD's observation about scouts overvaluing speed and undervaluing the ability to hit. It is the baseball equivalent of the scouting combine workout warrior.

[_Sir_Charles_]

To play devils advocate: About as often as we have seen undersized guys hit well in the lower level of the minors and not continue it at the higher levels.

What are you thinking doug? Going around making valid & logical points? Knock it off...it totally negates my argument. Sheesh! :O)

[mth123]

I've always wondered if Duran's future is as a 1B.

And for whatever it's worth, I agree with DD's observation about scouts overvaluing speed and undervaluing the ability to hit. It is the baseball equivalent of the scouting combine workout warrior.

You've hit on some things that brought me to Torreyes. Yorman seems to have outgrown CF making the bar a lot higher on his offense. Duran looks like he's outgrowing the OF completely making the bar even higher for him. Hamilton is a speed guy and that doesn't do much for me unless he has other skills and his defense has been questioned while his hitting has disappointed. Barnhardt is a dark horse for me, but Torreyes seems more "spectacular" as compared with Baranhardt's plugging away. So Torreyes it is. I do think we have a lot of interesting guys who will be moving up together,