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Thread: But...but...but...

  1. #1
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    But...but...but...

    I thought pitching was the problem.

    I guess maybe it is.....why can't they hold the Pirates down to -1? This is ridiculous.

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  3. #2
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    Re: But...but...but...

    cant there be more than 1 problem?

  4. #3
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by R_Webb18 View Post
    cant there be more than 1 problem?
    Oh, I think we're full of problems. But post-Volquez, starting pitching is the best part of this team (admittedly, not saying much).

  5. #4
    Member ervinsm84's Avatar
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    Re: But...but...but...

    sick sample size of games

    try reading this thread from ORG.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=90895

    or check out one of this sites own bloggers
    http://basecloggers.tumblr.com/post/7765029767/lovelob

    Best quote about the men LOB

    The team that left the most men on base in a season in the history of baseball was the 1976 Reds with 1326.
    Last edited by ervinsm84; 07-20-2011 at 03:39 AM.
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US

  6. #5
    Member wlf WV's Avatar
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    Re: But...but...but...

    '76 reds were 66-38 at the end of July.
    May the Lord bless

  7. #6
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by wlf WV View Post
    '76 reds were 66-38 at the end of July.

    o rly?

    The whole point is using LOB as a pure counting stat is a pretty inept way to evaluate how good or bad a teams offense really is.
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US

  8. #7
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by ervinsm84 View Post
    o rly?

    The whole point is using LOB as a pure counting stat is a pretty inept way to evaluate how good or bad a teams offense really is.
    If you leave 10 on base and score 10 runs then sure it's great, but we have not been scoring any runs lately so using runners LOB is appropriate right now.

  9. #8
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by bshall2105 View Post
    If you leave 10 on base and score 10 runs then sure it's great, but we have not been scoring any runs lately so using runners LOB is appropriate right now.
    Lets look a little deeper than the past 4 games. As mentioned in the ORG thread by member AtomicDumpling

    The Reds actually lead the National League in having the best percentage of their baserunners come around to score a run at 31%. In other words, when a Reds hitter gets on base he has a 31% chance of scoring.

    The lowest percentage in the NL is 27% (Padres and Dodgers), so you can see there really is not much difference between the best and the worst in terms of scoring your baserunners. This magnifies the importance of getting more baserunners and diminishes the importance of the "clutch factor" -- if you want to score more runs you must get more runners on base because you are not going to be significantly more effective than the other team at getting those runners around the bases.

    RS% -- Run Scoring Percentage
    Percentage of times a baserunner eventually scores a run.
    (R - HR) / (H + HBP + BB - HR)

    The baserunning formula only applies to baserunners that are on base for subsequent batters, which means a hitter that hits a home run is not counted in the formula, but any runners that were on base at the time of the homer would count. So another way to improve your runs scored (in addition to getting more runners on base as mentioned above) is to hit more home runs.

    also here are the splits for the REDS and MLB average based on game score situations
    Last edited by ervinsm84; 07-20-2011 at 07:02 AM.
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US

  10. #9
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by ervinsm84 View Post
    sick sample size of games

    try reading this thread from ORG.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=90895

    or check out one of this sites own bloggers
    http://basecloggers.tumblr.com/post/7765029767/lovelob

    Best quote about the men LOB

    The team that left the most men on base in a season in the history of baseball was the 1976 Reds with 1326.
    That is because they had more runners reach base than any team in the history of baseball.

    Please.

  11. #10
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by FireDusty View Post
    That is because they had more runners reach base than any team in the history of baseball.

    Please.
    which is why we should look at the conversion rate of baserunners who score, not a pure counting stat like total LOB. No one would judge a QB on who had the most incomplete passes as being a bad qb if hes throwing 50 times a game and completing 40 for an 80% comp rate but he had 10 incomplete passes so hes worse than the guy who was 14/23 61% comp % but only 9 incomplete attempts.

    And yes the reds lead the NL in conversion of baserunners, see above posts.
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US

  12. #11
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    Re: But...but...but...

    "Lies, damn lies, and statistics." Statistics can educate me about things I don't know about. But they can never convince me to disbelieve what I am seeing with my own two eyes. I'll go with my eyes every time. And in a sample size of the entire season AFTER the first two weeks, I have seen this offense fail over and over and over again -- actually, freakishly consistently and predictably -- in clutch and RISP situations.

  13. #12
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    I thought pitching was the problem.

    I guess maybe it is.....why can't they hold the Pirates down to -1? This is ridiculous.
    It depends on the time period you're talking about. Pitching WAS the problem and that is how we got in a hole in the first place this year. The reason we haven't turned it around once we finally starting getting pitching the last few weeks is, of course, the offense.

    Neither is particularly relevant though to the front office. What they need to decide is which, if either, needs to be improved if they're going to expect it to be playoff worthy going forward. My instinct is that the offense will be fine moving forward, but its certainly debatable given the way things have been going.
    RALLY CAPS!

  14. #13
    Member ervinsm84's Avatar
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    "Lies, damn lies, and statistics." Statistics can educate me about things I don't know about. But they can never convince me to disbelieve what I am seeing with my own two eyes. I'll go with my eyes every time. And in a sample size of the entire season AFTER the first two weeks, I have seen this offense fail over and over and over again -- actually, freakishly consistently and predictably -- in clutch and RISP situations.

    So more or less, no matter what piece of evidence is provided to counter your view of the team, your view of the team is more representative of what the truth really is than a bunch of "numbers"

    The first line you quote pretty much sums up your stance on statistics in that you dont buy into them, and no matter how much they contradict what you believe, youll always believe your eyes.

    Do you think your eyes watching every single game, without actively counting or using statistics could tell the difference between a 275 ba hitter and a 295 ba hitter over the course of, ill even use a whole 162 game season with 500 ABS.

    500 ABs for a major league season

    500 x .275 = 137.5
    500x .295= 147.5


    Thats a total of 10 hits over the course of 162 game season with ~500 ABS and the difference works out to 1 extra hit every ~16 games. Then we need to add in that the hits wont be evenly distributed as 1 extra hit per 16 games bc guys end up with short term surges and declines in hit totals over the course of the year.

    Maybe youre the one special guy who has this ability, but Id have a hard time believing anyone could pick this out from only watching the games unless they were counting them by hand.
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US

  15. #14
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by ervinsm84 View Post
    So more or less, no matter what piece of evidence is provided to counter your view of the team, your view of the team is more representative of what the truth really is than a bunch of "numbers"

    The first line you quote pretty much sums up your stance on statistics in that you dont buy into them, and no matter how much they contradict what you believe, youll always believe your eyes.

    Do you think your eyes watching every single game, without actively counting or using statistics could tell the difference between a 275 ba hitter and a 295 ba hitter over the course of, ill even use a whole 162 game season with 500 ABS.

    500 ABs for a major league season

    500 x .275 = 137.5
    500x .295= 147.5


    Thats a total of 10 hits over the course of 162 game season with ~500 ABS and the difference works out to 1 extra hit every ~16 games. Then we need to add in that the hits wont be evenly distributed as 1 extra hit per 16 games bc guys end up with short term surges and declines in hit totals over the course of the year.

    Maybe youre the one special guy who has this ability, but Id have a hard time believing anyone could pick this out from only watching the games unless they were counting them by hand.
    Well, since your signature is in a bright, large, bold, pink font, it must be something very important.
    "Why's he keep callin' me meat? I'm the guy drivin' a Porsche." - Calvin LaLoosh

    Moneyball = Mulder, Hudson, Zito

  16. #15
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    Re: But...but...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by ervinsm84 View Post
    So more or less, no matter what piece of evidence is provided to counter your view of the team, your view of the team is more representative of what the truth really is than a bunch of "numbers"

    The first line you quote pretty much sums up your stance on statistics in that you dont buy into them, and no matter how much they contradict what you believe, youll always believe your eyes.
    Not exactly, I do rely on statistics to a certain extent, but if they flatly contradict what I am seeing myself, they carry less weight than if they support what I am seeing, sure. That just seems natural and logical to me.


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