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Thread: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

  1. #1
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    2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    In baseball, it's very easy to have knee jerk reactions. It's easy to get frustrated. It's even easy to remind yourself that it's a long season and that there is plenty of time left. Then you look at the standings, and you see that the Reds have 3 teams in front of them, inculding a surprising Pirates team. You may also see that the Brewers look like they are going to beat the Cubs today, which would put the Reds back 6.5 games. Personally, I think this late in the season, that's insurmountable. I felt pretty uneasy being back 4 and 5 games, but 6.5?

    Simply put, the 2011 Reds are done. It's an unfortunate reality. You can't get swept at home in a 4 game series when you're already in 4th place in the division. The Reds for the entire series played attrocious. Errors galore, impatient ABs with free swinging, poor pitching. You name the area, the Reds were terrible. And even in today's game, where most things clicked outside of the pitching, Hernandez made no effort to block the ball that Ondrusek threw in the dirt, leading to a run that was a difference maker. Even the Mets commentators were astounded that he botched the play so badly. But really, Ramon's mistake was just a microcosm of this season. The Reds simply are underachieving and can't put it together and time has realistically run out.

    This is not 2003 or 2004. The Reds have a pitching staff that I think most people outside of Reds Country could name many names for, even some of their relievers. You could maybe even make the case that some of the backup players now are better than some of the regulars back then.

    Who is to blame? It probably falls a little bit on everyone from the top down. I really don't know how you assign the blame and I don't think it's fair to single out any 1 person when a team like the Reds have so many problems. The fact is, the Reds just aren't a very good team, despite having a lot of talent.

    So, my advide to the Reds is start planning for next year. See if you can get a decent return for Hernandez and bring Mesoraco up immediately. DFA Fred Lewis and bring up Sappelt. Make sure that he and Alonso as well as Heisey get looks out there in LF. Trade off Cairo and let Frazier play everyday at 3B or somewhere in the field. Trade Cordero and bring up Boxberger. Figure out what you're going to do about the pitching. Package up at least 1 pitcher and some of the prospects and get a pitcher of real value back that is locked up for 2 to 3 more seasons. Maybe you even consider packaging up more prospects to get a LF RH thumper and another shutdown reliever.

    Let's just hope that the right moves are made and that 2012 will be more exciting than 2011. There's no reason the Reds should be anything less than a contender.
    Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 07-28-2011 at 06:00 PM.

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  3. #2
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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Obviously, the Reds need to plan for next year.

    But does that mean going young?

    It could be argued that too much reliance on young prospects caused the demise of 2011. Guys like Rolen were hurt, Rhodes and Cabrera let go.

    Other than Votto, who is fabulous, which young player has been so strong this year so as to lead the team to success? Cueto has been good. Beyond him?

    Yes, plan for next year, but what is the design?

    I have said for a long time that the Reds need a pitcher and a hitter. I mean proven people.

    Because if next year is about Frazier, and Alonso, and Mesoraco, and more Bailey, and a kid closer, then I suspect we'll be worse off.

    I agree that some guys like Razor and Renteria really don't need to be here anymore. To replace them short term, sure, those kids who remain after the deadline can be promoted, why not.

    But let's not again rely on "internal improvement" for next year. Let's add a couple of serious ballplayers.

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    I'm not suggesting the Reds rely solely on the kids. But I think we need to see what these kids have so we can better assess their value and if they should be traded or they should be used to plug in holes. It's much more difficult to do that when they are sitting down in AAA.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Obviously, the Reds need to plan for next year.

    But does that mean going young?

    It could be argued that too much reliance on young prospects caused the demise of 2011. Guys like Rolen were hurt, Rhodes and Cabrera let go.

    Other than Votto, who is fabulous, which young player has been so strong this year so as to lead the team to success? Cueto has been good. Beyond him?

    Yes, plan for next year, but what is the design?

    I have said for a long time that the Reds need a pitcher and a hitter. I mean proven people.

    Because if next year is about Frazier, and Alonso, and Mesoraco, and more Bailey, and a kid closer, then I suspect we'll be worse off.

    I agree that some guys like Razor and Renteria really don't need to be here anymore. To replace them short term, sure, those kids who remain after the deadline can be promoted, why not.

    But let's not again rely on "internal improvement" for next year. Let's add a couple of serious ballplayers.
    The Reds problems this year have been the vets. Arroyo. Volquez. Janish. Renteria. Gomes. Rolen.

    Guys who haven't hurt the team: Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Phillips, Hernandez, Hanigan, Lewis, Cairo.

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The Reds problems this year have been the vets. Arroyo. Volquez. Janish. Renteria. Gomes. Rolen.

    Guys who haven't hurt the team: Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Phillips, Hernandez, Hanigan, Lewis, Cairo.
    I would say that the lack of any sort of improvement from these two players, in particular, has played a major role in this disappointing season. In Stubbs' case, perhaps it's gross misuse of him in the batting order, but I don't see how you can say his failures haven't hurt this team.

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    I would say that the lack of any sort of improvement from these two players, in particular, has played a major role in this disappointing season. In Stubbs' case, perhaps it's gross misuse of him in the batting order, but I don't see how you can say his failures haven't hurt this team.
    Actually, I'm more disappointed in Bruce than I am in Stubbs. Take away his month of May, and Bruce has been underwheming.

    Besides, I'm not sure you can blame any one part of this team. When the offense is good, the pitching is bad. When the pitching is lights out, the offense can't score runs. When the starting pitching is quality, the bullpen caves. When the starting pitching gives up 8 runs in two innings, the bullpen puts up zeros the rest of the game.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The Reds problems this year have been the vets. Arroyo. Volquez. Janish. Renteria. Gomes. Rolen.

    Guys who haven't hurt the team: Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Phillips, Hernandez, Hanigan, Lewis, Cairo.
    Whatever happened this year, the answer is not running a tryout camp next year for 25 inexperienced guys.

    It's time for the Reds to get a couple of proven players. A hitter and a pitcher.

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    We are should be and hopefully will be "BUYERS" at the trade deadline. I put "Buyers" in quotes because we should be buying for next year. Looking at potential Aces who are under contract like Ubaldo. Looking to acquire a middle of the order hitter who is under contract for next season or further, maybe make a run at Hanley Ramirez, who can fill the SS void, and possibly move to 3rd or 2nd down the road.

    Get up prospects like Mez, Sappelt, Box, etc. Trade guys like Ramon because you have Mez. Hang onto someone like Cordero unless you get salary relief and a prospect who may be worthwhile. You are not entirely giving up on the season because this team does have the pieces to make an extended winning stretch.

    You hang onto a guy like Cairo who ill be vital to the teams success next season. You look at the trade value of a wildcard like Stubbs, maybe his trade value is way above his on the field value due to his skillset (light tower power, lightning fast). It is very feasible a team may considerably over pay for him.

    And lastly, CHAPMAN AS A STARTER. Send him down or start getting him stretched out in long relief, but make it a goal to get him a couple of starts by the end of the season under a fairly strict pitch count. This guy could be that dominant starter we need to anchor the rotation starting next season, or he may not, but we have to find out sooner than later.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    The Cardinals just traded one of their best hitters for some average rental arms.

    Weeks looks like he's out for the season.

    The Reds just got swept by the Mets in a four game series at home.

    The Pirates are the Pirates.

    I still think the Reds can win the division, but only because someone has to.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post

    I still think the Reds can win the division, but only because someone has to.
    Keep dreaming. If everyone goes 2-3 games over .500 the rest of the way, the Reds have to go 17-18 over .500 the rest of the way.

  12. #11
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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Really, really disappointing year. I could have seen a drop off for sure, but I did not expect to be playing meaningless games in late July-- this level of ineptitude has surprised me.

    I'm not cashing in m chips on the core of this team or the organization as a whole; I like the strides we've made. But honestly, right now, it's hard to get excited about spring training 2012, when I'm just accepting that baseball season 2001 is over on July 28th.

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    But honestly, right now, it's hard to get excited about spring training 2012, when I'm just accepting that baseball season 2001 is over on July 28th.
    Sure seems like 2001, doesn't it?

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Cardinals just traded one of their best hitters for some average rental arms.

    Weeks looks like he's out for the season.

    The Reds just got swept by the Mets in a four game series at home.

    The Pirates are the Pirates.

    I still think the Reds can win the division, but only because someone has to.
    You are either the most optimistic human alive or a very delusional sports fan. I will keep my opinion on which one to myself

    But if I were to humor you, there is one way and one way only I see us getting back in this thing... A fluke 2-3 weeks.

    No way can the Reds sustain the pace we'd need for two full months.... But what if we got crazy hot for 10-15 games? Go nuts and sweep the Cubs and Stros next week... Something like that. Pile up 10 wins in 12 games or something and we'd probably be within 2-3 of the lead again and then you could at least make it interesting.

    But that ain't gonna happen brotha

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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    You are either the most optimistic human alive or a very delusional sports fan. I will keep my opinion on which one to myself

    But if I were to humor you, there is one way and one way only I see us getting back in this thing... A fluke 2-3 weeks.

    No way can the Reds sustain the pace we'd need for two full months.... But what if we got crazy hot for 10-15 games? Go nuts and sweep the Cubs and Stros next week... Something like that. Pile up 10 wins in 12 games or something and we'd probably be within 2-3 of the lead again and then you could at least make it interesting.

    But that ain't gonna happen brotha
    I was more trying to make fun of how pathetic the whole division is than being optimistic about the Reds chances.

    However, the 2009 Reds had two separate 10-2 runs at the end of the season.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #15
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    Re: 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.

    2012:
    C Mes/Hanigan
    1B Votto
    2B Phillips (option picked up)
    SS Cozart - he'll be back sooner than later so we can get a bit of an extended look at him
    3B Rolen when/if healthy but the Reds need another guy who can play here. ************Lets play Frazier over Cairo & see what we have.
    LF MAJOR NEED for 2012 - a middle of the order thumper
    CF Stubbs
    RF Bruce

    SP MAJOR NEED for 2012 - an ace
    SP Cueto
    SP Bailey (injury risk)
    SP Leake
    SP Chapman (on an innings limit)
    SP Arroyo

    RP Bray
    RP Masset
    RP Ondrusek
    RP Lecure

    2012 needs:
    ace (really two aces but thats more fantasy that reality)
    thumper
    possibly SS (depending on how Cozart looks this year)
    possibly 3B (depending on how Frazier looks this year)
    probably one if not two good bullpen arms

    who goes to get all that?
    Wood
    Volquez
    Grandal
    Alonso
    Heisey
    Sappelt
    Hamilton if it gets us the ace or thumper
    .


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