Good article by Carolyn Costa on ESPN yesterday about Arroyo's struggles.
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...yo-this-season
The primary explanation: he's not locating well, especially when he's ahead in the count and should be putting guys away. He's forcing guys to swing and then giving them meatballs...
Here's an image showing where Arroyo is throwing his fastballs & changeups (2/3 of his pitches) in 2011 (left) vs. 2010 (right).
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
They cleared him physically but I still am waiting for the day that he reveals that his back continues to plague him. I think this is more likely to cause location issues than the mono. Hopefully he turned the corner last night.
I saw a guy that struck out 3 guys in 8 innings while facing a minor league lineup full of guys who don't hit HR. He allowed an awful lot of contact, something which would hurt him a lot more against real major league hitters. There were a number of times he gave a guy something fat and the hitter simply wasn't able to capitalize.Originally Posted by klw
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
3 runs in 7 IP against that team is not good. The Stros are terrible right now. Put a real major league team out there and Arroyo likely gives up his usual 5 or 6 runs in 5 innings.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
This is what I was going to say. At no time Monday night did Arroyo hint at even being close to turning any corner. He left his pitches right where they have been all season, they only difference is that the Double A team missed a few of them.
And they still beat the Reds.
Hey Sparky! Indian Hill English teachers taught me everything I know!
Mono does not go away without rest. It is hard to believe he has had enough rest during the season for it to have cleared up.
Assuming that he did contract Mono this spring, there is a good chance it is still causing him issues.
On the plus side, the homers are basically the only difference between how he's pitched this year and the past few. Well, that and fewer walks (though that could be because he's getting more of the plate...). On the down side, his ERA last year was a BABIP-induced mirage. If he can keep the HRs under control, he should continue to be just fine as a back of the rotation innings eater, a classic #4 starter.
Code:Year IP K% BB% HR/9 BABIP GB:FB HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP FIP- 2006 240.2 18.6 6.5 1.2 .270 0.94 10.5 3.29 4.15 4.20 90 2007 210.2 16.9 6.8 1.2 .309 0.81 9.6 4.23 4.57 4.59 98 2008 200.0 18.7 7.8 1.3 .314 1.16 13.1 4.77 4.50 4.07 102 2009 220.1 13.8 7.0 1.3 .265 1.22 11.9 3.84 4.78 4.50 110 2010 215.2 13.8 6.7 1.2 .239 1.08 10.5 3.88 4.61 4.42 112 2011 135.1 13.0 5.5 2.0 .289 1.03 16.2 5.45 5.53 4.26 142
I could see a rotation of Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, Chapman. That would alternate between types, put guys roughly in their order of expected effectiveness (perhaps flipping Leake and Bailey), and keep Chapman in the 5th spot where his innings could be monitored and where'd he start with some favorable matchups. I don't think Volquez starts another game for the Reds. If he's back, it's as a reliever. I could even see them using him in relief in September as an audition for taking over the closer role.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-03-2011 at 10:34 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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