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Thread: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

  1. #16
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    I'd be more comfortable with Cozart at SS on Opening Day than the likes of Renteria, OCab, or AGON. I don't know if he will be as good offensively over a full season as he was in his short time before injury in 2011 but I'd rather take my chances with him than another thirty-something SS with little to no range defensively.
    I am fairly certain he won't be as good, but an OPS in the .675 to .725 range is a reasonable expectation and that is a far cry more than anyone should have ever expected from Paul Janish coming into 2011. My expectations for Janish were below .600 with .625 being the top in an every day role. Janish fooled everyone with his decent success in limited time last year and it seems many, including our celebrated GM, assumed that was something he could sustain with every day play. Seems silly when one of the knocks on him his entire career is that he wears down when he's out there all the time. There was a lot of reason to call for help from the outside coming into 2011.

    This year, Cozart will be coming into the season having shown more pop, more speed and better overall hitting as a minor leaguer (especially in the upper minors) than Janish ever did. Couple that with Janish in a limited role for a game here and there or for a short stretch while Cozart is dinged up and there is reason to expect better production all around. These guys will not be world beaters. There is no reason to expect Tulo, Hanley, Rollins or Reyes style production, but at this point there are holes to fill on this team that will not be addressed by doing anything at SS. Whatever type of trading capital and dollars are to be expended should go toward a proven starter with enough juice to be a pitcher a team would feel good about starting a play-off game (even if its not game 1) and somebody to hit 4th or 5th unless some miracle allows Alonso to be that guy with Votto and Bruce. The defense at SS will be more than adequate and the offense will be acceptable.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Fairly comfortable. Sure would have liked to have seen him for two months instead of the eleven games he got into. Very hard to make a really good judgement on 11 games. I think this injury insured that Jocketty will go out and get a veteran SS for next season as a backup.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    In the little I saw of Cozart I was impressed. To me he seems like an ideal 2 hole hitter. A guy with a little bit of pop and good with the bat. He is a guy who wasn't overpowered during his first run around in the big leagues. He impressed me with this bat, defense, and poise.

    I think he could be a good long term solution to the Reds SS position. He isn't a guy who will wow you like Reyes, Tulo, or Hanley but he is a guy who will provide some value but won't hurt you in either the field or at the plate.

  5. #19
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    Fairly comfortable. Sure would have liked to have seen him for two months instead of the eleven games he got into. Very hard to make a really good judgement on 11 games. I think this injury insured that Jocketty will go out and get a veteran SS for next season as a backup.
    Not a lot of options out there for SS. Reyes (too expensive). Furcal (too injured, too old?), plus several that are likely to stay put (Rollins, Scutaro). You probably keep Janish as an inexpensive backup. He's proven more than willing to fill in at 2B and 3B, too.
    Cozart and Janish is kind of scary, but the options are slim. Maybe Renteria again? (ouch).
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Not a lot of options out there for SS. Reyes (too expensive). Furcal (too injured, too old?), plus several that are likely to stay put (Rollins, Scutaro). You probably keep Janish as an inexpensive backup. He's proven more than willing to fill in at 2B and 3B, too.
    Cozart and Janish is kind of scary, but the options are slim. Maybe Renteria again? (ouch).
    Could be Cabrera again too?
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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    Could be Cabrera again too?
    Chemistry on the cheap!
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    In the little I saw of Cozart I was impressed. To me he seems like an ideal 2 hole hitter.
    I don't know about #2.

    He doesn't walk much, or get on base. He hasn't walked in the majors yet.

    He strikes out quite a bit. His speed looks good.

    He's likely to hit about .250-.260 and will struggle to have his OBA stay above .300. He should be good for 10-12 HR's per season too.

    I'd say he's a guy you bury at #8 and hope he doesn't hurt you too much. I certainly wouldn't want him getting the 2nd most AB's on the team.

  9. #23
    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Here are your FA SS options for next year, thanks to MLBTR.

    Clint Barmes (33)
    Yuniesky Betancourt (30) - $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout
    Orlando Cabrera (37)
    Jamey Carroll (37)
    Ronny Cedeno (29) - $3MM club option with a $200K buyout
    Craig Counsell (41)
    Rafael Furcal (34) - $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout
    Alex Gonzalez (34)
    Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)
    Omar Infante (30)
    Cesar Izturis (32)
    Julio Lugo (36)
    John McDonald (37)
    Augie Ojeda (37)
    Nick Punto (34)
    Edgar Renteria (35)
    Jose Reyes (29)
    Jimmy Rollins (33)
    Ramon Santiago (32)
    Marco Scutaro (36) - $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout
    Miguel Tejada (38)
    Jack Wilson (34)

    320
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  10. #24
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by Orenda View Post
    I think he will make sense for a time. I'd project 260/310/410 for him with a solid glove, but it wouldn't surprise me if he OPS'd 750 or higher. That won't blow people away but you can spend more and do much worse at shortstop. They should free up resources for other areas imo
    This is pretty much how I feel. Bat him 7th and he is going to be an asset. If he starts to outperform that line, which I think he could but I wouldn't exactly count on it either, then you can move him up in the lineup.

  11. #25
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I don't know about #2.

    He doesn't walk much, or get on base. He hasn't walked in the majors yet.

    He strikes out quite a bit. His speed looks good.

    He's likely to hit about .250-.260 and will struggle to have his OBA stay above .300. He should be good for 10-12 HR's per season too.

    I'd say he's a guy you bury at #8 and hope he doesn't hurt you too much. I certainly wouldn't want him getting the 2nd most AB's on the team.
    He doesn't strike out quite a bit. Not sure where you got that idea from.

    He doesn't walk much though, which is why he shouldn't be batting higher than 6th-7th though. I think you are underestimating his power. He is a 15-20 HR guy.

  12. #26
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Worries me a smidge that he had no BBs in 38 PAs, but his walk rate was decent in the minors so I guess its just a blip on the curve.

    My discomfort is less with him than Janish coming into this season. But I would say I'm comfortable.

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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He doesn't strike out quite a bit. Not sure where you got that idea from.

    He doesn't walk much though, which is why he shouldn't be batting higher than 6th-7th though. I think you are underestimating his power. He is a 15-20 HR guy.
    His K-rate everywhere he's been as been about 16-17%, which equates to >100 for a full season. And more than Janish has generally done at any level. More than 100 is quite a bit. Perhaps watching Stubbs and Dunn has moved our levels of what striking out a lot means.

    HR's; I see him more as a 10-15 guy, but you are correct, he might be good for more.

    I see him hitting 8th for a team with a decent offense. His low OBA certainly doesn't play any higher.

  14. #28
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Worries me a smidge that he had no BBs in 38 PAs, but his walk rate was decent in the minors so I guess its just a blip on the curve.

    My discomfort is less with him than Janish coming into this season. But I would say I'm comfortable.
    It didn't really bother me. Pitchers may be attacking him because he is a rookie and there really isn't a book on him. If he is getting a lot of pitches over the fat part of the plate then I would want him swinging away. If he proves power or to be a good hitter then they will begin to nibble more and it will lead to more walks.

  15. #29
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    I like Cozart. But with Rolen questionable, I think you have to sign a vet infielder this winter.
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  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    His K-rate everywhere he's been as been about 16-17%, which equates to >100 for a full season. And more than Janish has generally done at any level. More than 100 is quite a bit. Perhaps watching Stubbs and Dunn has moved our levels of what striking out a lot means.

    HR's; I see him more as a 10-15 guy, but you are correct, he might be good for more.

    I see him hitting 8th for a team with a decent offense. His low OBA certainly doesn't play any higher.
    It was under 15% in AAA this year, but lets just assume its 16-17%.... That puts him in line with Fred Lewis and Joey Votto.


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