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Thread: What If Pujols...

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    What If Pujols...

    Pure Hypothetical so lay off the "this would never happen" replies.

    I know this would never happen, but...

    What if, because of his down year, coming off an injury, the clog of 1B at all the big market teams, and St. Louis deciding to rebuild, Pujols can't get any legitimate offers in the offseason?

    What would you be willing to offer Pujols, in years and total $$$, to be a Red?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    A blank check and a dedication to play 3B.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    A blank check and a dedication to play 3B.
    Other than the several starts at 3B this season - to try and pump more offense into the Cards lineup - he hasn't played 3B since 2002 (to make room for Rolen). And then there's that elbow.

    The guy's a GG 1bman. I think one would be playing with fire to move him from 1B to 3B on a regular basis.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    I would give Pujols a 51% ownership stake in the Reds. I would also let him be Player-Manager and General Manager. And then I would rename the stadium after him. I would not go so far as to rename the team the Cincinnati Pujols -- that would be ridiculous.

    But seriously, the contract he gets will probably give him enough money to buy the Reds if he wants to.

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    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    I'd love to have Albert Pujols.

    In my lifetime the Reds have had just one player that compares to Pujols.

    Johnny Bench arguably the best catcher in baseball history.

    Albert Pujols arguably the best first baseman in baseball history.

    Sadly in the reality of MLB today clubs like the Reds could never afford to keep and pay a player like Pujols and remain competitive.

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Johnny Bench arguably the best catcher in baseball history.
    There's an argument to be made that he wasn't?
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    There's an argument to be made that he wasn't?
    I have been gone for several weeks now do to real life issues but this thread caught my eye. I think an argument can be made for Ivan Rodriguez. Not only is his batting average better than Bench, Rodriguez is arguably the best defensive catcher in the history of the game. They played in different eras so the whole "who is better" argument is hard to determine. I also think that Gary Carter is overlooked as well.


    As far as Pujols goes, Puffy is right to bring up some of those issues but I think you also have to weigh what has happened to offense on a whole in the past five years. Offense, baseball wide, continues to decline and it begs the question, is Pujols declining or is it just pitching continuing to become a dominant factor in the game. This could be the first year in a long time where the NL leader in home runs doesn't achieve a 40 home run season. Granted, home runs are not the end all when discussing the decline in offense league wide but it certainly is a stat of note. Also, I think what you have to take into account is that Pujols had a horrible two months at the beginning of the season but since June, he has hit to about his norm. I don't think one down year (or two bad months) is an indication that a player is starting to decline.

    Also, I think one factor in Pujols not walking as much is that there is a lot of protection behind him with Holliday and Berkman, which is something he hasn't had since the 04 season. Pitchers are pitching to him more this season rather than intentionally walking him or pitching around him than in other years. I also think that Pujols would thrive even more in a hitters park like GABP so even if he is "declining", adjusting for ballpark he might do well.

    Puffy you also make the mistake in comparing him with Griffey. Not only is Griffey not as good as a player as Pujols is (even if you take out all Griffey's years after the age of 30), you cannot take one set of injuries on a given player and apply them to another player as if it is almost the rule. Pujols does not play the highly athletic position of outfield like Griffey did nor does he have even half of the injury history of Griffey. In Pujols career, he has only spent three 15 day stints on the DL, including this year. Griffey had a couple of injuries, including a major injury in 95, before he even turned 30. Even taking this year into account, Pujols has yet to play in less than 140 games in his career, where as with Griffey, he failed to even reach that mark several times. Is Pujols worth 30 million? No. However I still think you will get good to great production with him for another five years especially if he went to a hitters ballpark like GABP, Fenway, or Yankee Stadium.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 08-23-2011 at 12:40 AM.
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I have been gone for several weeks now do to real life issues but this thread caught my eye. I think an argument can be made for Ivan Rodriguez. Not only is his batting average better than Bench, Rodriguez is arguably the best defensive catcher in the history of the game. They played in different eras so the whole "who is better" argument is hard to determine. I also think that Gary Carter is overlooked as well.

    What's this batting average you speak off? You are basing offensive ability based on this? FWIW, Bench had a superior OBA .

    Are you basing defensive abilty on fielding average too?

    And Gary Carter is overlooked in the arguments of best catcher ever for a reason.
    Last edited by PuffyPig; 08-23-2011 at 12:30 PM.

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    Re: What If Pujols...

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    As far as Pujols goes, Puffy is right to bring up some of those issues but I think you also have to weigh what has happened to offense on a whole in the past five years. Offense, baseball wide, continues to decline and it begs the question, is Pujols declining or is it just pitching continuing to become a dominant factor in the game. This could be the first year in a long time where the NL leader in home runs doesn't achieve a 40 home run season. Granted, home runs are not the end all when discussing the decline in offense league wide but it certainly is a stat of note. Also, I think what you have to take into account is that Pujols had a horrible two months at the beginning of the season but since June, he has hit to about his norm. I don't think one down year (or two bad months) is an indication that a player is starting to decline.

    Also, I think one factor in Pujols not walking as much is that there is a lot of protection behind him with Holliday and Berkman, which is something he hasn't had since the 04 season. Pitchers are pitching to him more this season rather than intentionally walking him or pitching around him than in other years. I also think that Pujols would thrive even more in a hitters park like GABP so even if he is "declining", adjusting for ballpark he might do well.
    Firstly, I get it that offense has declined, but Pujols has gone from the very top every year in WAR to about 30th in the majors. That's a ranking stat, so decline in offense won't affect it.

    Secondly, you would think that if pitchers are pitching to Pujols more, giving him better pitches to hit as they don't want to walk him, his walks would decline and his hitting would improve.

    Instead, his walks are cut in half, and his hitting has also declined.

    The first indication of a hitting decline is that pitchers are pitching to you more often. We saw it with Griffey, and when he couldn't produce more offensive when they pitched to him, it was very telling.

    When you watch the Cards play these days, pitchers are pitching to Pujols and pitching around Berkman.

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    Re: What If Pujols...

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post


    Also, I think one factor in Pujols not walking as much is that there is a lot of protection behind him with Holliday and Berkman, which is something he hasn't had since the 04 season. Pitchers are pitching to him more this season rather than intentionally walking him or pitching around him than in other years.
    Good theory, but unsupported by facts.

    Pujols is seeing 45.6% strikes this year, DOWN from a career average of 48.6%.

    Pujols is swinging at 29.4% of pitches outside the zone, UP from a carer average of 21.0%.

    Pujols is making contact with pitches outside the zone at a 79.7% rate, UP from a career average of 68.4%.

    So, pitchers are actually pitching to him less?

    Why?

    Becuase he's swinging at more pitches outside the zone, and making more contact with pitches outside the zone.

    Why give Pujols more strikes when he's expanding the zone and getting weaker ciontact on those pitches he swings at?

    WHy is Pujols swinging at pitches that's aren't strikes? Well, in Griffey's case, as your reflexes slow, you have to make a choice to swing a bit earlier than in the past, so you aren't recognixing strikes and balls as well as before.

    Pitchers won't throw you strikes if you swing at balls. And Pujols is finding that out the hard way.

    Now Pujols is still a grreat hitter and he will get his share of hits and HR's. But if he continues to swing at pitches out of the zone, his days of being #1 are likely over.

    Pitchers aren't pitching to him more this year. They are pitching to him less. But Pujols is doing the rest on his own.

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    Re: What If Pujols...

    I'd bring Pujols in, put him at 1B, send Votto to Toronto for Bautista, then deal Alonso for whatever I could get.

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    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    The money we'd have to pay a Pujols would severely hamstring this organization in multiple other areas.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    Re: What If Pujols...

    Pujols whas the majors 30rd best WAR this year.

    His lack of walks is very telling, as his OBA has dropped about 100 points this year. And his walks have decreased rapidly as the season as worn on.

    The first sign of Griffey regressing was his decreasing walks, as he had to start cheating by swinging earlier at pitches. Pujols is doing the same thing. He remains a big injury risk.

    It will cost a fortune in money and years to sign Pujols. Let someone else make the mistake of signing who was the majors best player based on what he has does in the past.

    He's still a very good player, but not likely at the top of the list anymore. Assuming so will cost some team dearly. I hope it's the Cards.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Pujols whas the majors 30rd best WAR this year.

    His lack of walks is very telling, as his OBA has dropped about 100 points this year. And his walks have decreased rapidly as the season as worn on.

    The first sign of Griffey regressing was his decreasing walks, as he had to start cheating by swinging earlier at pitches. Pujols is doing the same thing. He remains a big injury risk.

    It will cost a fortune in money and years to sign Pujols. Let someone else make the mistake of signing who was the majors best player based on what he has does in the past.

    He's still a very good player, but not likely at the top of the list anymore. Assuming so will cost some team dearly. I hope it's the Cards.
    Excellent analysis. I concur.
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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: What If Pujols...

    This just in...

    Mike is back from hiatus. He says Pujols isn't declining and objects to Bench being called the greatest catcher ever.

    We missed you Mike.


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