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Thread: Arbitration Updates

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    Arbitration Updates

    From MLB Trade Rumors...

    Unfortunate Type A Free Agents
    By Tim Dierkes [August 17, 2011 at 7:55am CST]

    Teams want their star free agents to be classified as Type As. For example, the Mets know there is no chance of Jose Reyes accepting an arbitration offer, nor will the loss of a draft pick have a big effect on his market. So, they can definitely expect two draft picks of some kind if he leaves. But for other, lesser free agents, Type A status is a problem for the team. For these guys it's understood by both sides that the loss of a pick will hurt their market, making the player more likely to accept an arbitration offer from their old team. If the team wants the picks but has no interest in retaining the player, offering arbitration is dangerous.

    Looking at our latest Elias Rankings projections, the following non-star impending free agents are currently classified as Type A:
    Ramon Hernandez, Reds: I think the Reds are safe here and Hernandez would decline an arbitration offer in search of multiyear security and a guaranteed deal.
    Brandon Phillips, Reds: If the Reds decide to decline Phillips' $12MM club option, snag some picks, and move on, they'd have to consider the possibility of Phillips accepting arbitration and actually getting more than $12MM. I think the risk of the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins accepting arbitration is lower.
    No way the Reds mess with BPhil... there's too much risk. They'll almost certainly pick up the option. Perhaps they'll explore a trade once the option is picked, but no way do they decline and offer arb.

    Ramon remains a sticky situation. I still can't believe a trade wasn't consummated at the deadline. The writer above feels certain Ramon will decline and seek a multi-year deal. I simply wonder if there's a market for that for him at this stage. DevMes has shown he's ready for the next step, so this business decision could impact the Reds' most important prospect's development.

    How much could Ramon fetch in arb, if he accepts?
    What if he's owed more than he can produce, knowing he had a fine year this year? Is he due for a decline?

    Add this to the off-season intrigue. Certain to be one of the more interesting off-seasons in a while. Which, I realize, isn't saying much.
    Last edited by I(heart)Freel; 08-17-2011 at 10:31 AM.
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    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    Renewing Phillips is a no brainer. I'll be shocked and upset if that doesn't happen.

    I just wonder if the Reds and Hernandez agent have some type of back room deal that Ramon will decline arbitration and go FA? Thus the Reds get their compensation and he can seek a multi year deal elsewhere.
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    If the Reds declined Philips option (they won't), 100% chance they would offer him arbitration, as teams would line up to offer Phillips a multi-year deal.

    I'd say there is 0% chance that Hernendez would be offered arbitration. I doubt anyone would offer Hernendez a multi-year deal, and who would sign him for 1 year and forfeit their first round pick? Hernandez best pay day would be in arbitration.

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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    The knowledge that Mesoraco will be getting PT along with Hannigan is an interesting facet to Ramon's arbitration decision. It may tip the scales and cause him to decline.
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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    I am not so sure about Ramon.
    As I recall, he was very unhappy in Baltimore when we traded for him.
    He seems happy now.
    Maybe Walt and Ramon both want him to come back next year.
    If Alonso is trade bait, Ramon could be the backup 1b, C, and bat off the bench.

    Ramon has already made a lot of money in his career. Maybe he has other priorities than trying to snag a multiyear deal.. I'm not sure many teams would line up to give him a multiyear deal anyhow at his age. (How many backup catchers at his age get big multiyear deals).
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I am not so sure about Ramon.
    As I recall, he was very unhappy in Baltimore when we traded for him.
    He seems happy now.
    Maybe Walt and Ramon both want him to come back next year.
    If Alonso is trade bait, Ramon could be the backup 1b, C, and bat off the bench.

    Ramon has already made a lot of money in his career. Maybe he has other priorities than trying to snag a multiyear deal.. I'm not sure many teams would line up to give him a multiyear deal anyhow at his age. (How many backup catchers at his age get big multiyear deals).
    He is not a backup catcher. Nor would he be next year on most teams, other than the Reds, Braves, Twins, Orioles, Indians, and a few others.

    I would ABSOLUTELY offer Ramon arbitration. It is the ONLY way Walt could possibly justify not trading him last month. I would hope that he declines and we take the picks. However if he accepts, you can trade Hanigan, use Ramon as a veteran presence and valuable backup next year, and let him walk in 2013 when Grandal is ready. With Hanigan's contract, he certainly has some trade value.
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I would ABSOLUTELY offer Ramon arbitration.

    Then be prepared to have him play for the Reds for more money that you care.

    No team will sacrifice its first round pick to sign a short term deal with Hernandez.

    Hernandez may not want to come back to the Reds, but he may have no choice if we offer him arbitration, as he might become unsignable to another team.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Then be prepared to have him play for the Reds for more money that you care.

    No team will sacrifice its first round pick to sign a short term deal with Hernandez.

    Hernandez may not want to come back to the Reds, but he may have no choice if we offer him arbitration, as he might become unsignable to another team.
    Tim Dierkes disagrees.

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    Go Reds Go! UKFlounder's Avatar
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    But you could trade Ramon if he accepted. Other teams might give up a minor leaguer instead of a 1st round pick and the return might not be great, but it's not like him accepting arbitration voids all other transaction possibilities.

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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    No team will sacrifice its first round pick to sign a short term deal with Hernandez.
    Half the teams in baseball have their 1st round pick protected. Also, teams that themselves will be getting extra picks aren't going to be as worried about losing their own picks.

    Hernandez is a valuable player. Catchers who can hit are in very short supply. There will be plenty of interest in him, IMO.
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by UKFlounder View Post
    But you could trade Ramon if he accepted. Other teams might give up a minor leaguer instead of a 1st round pick and the return might not be great, but it's not like him accepting arbitration voids all other transaction possibilities.
    Exactly right. If the worst case scenario is you have to pay Ramon a fair market salary if he accepts arbitration it is not so bad. He is an excellent catcher to have. If the Reds get "stuck" with him after arbitration I am sure Jocketty could find a team happy to trade for him. Many teams could use a good catcher and his value will increase once he no longer costs a team their first round pick to acquire him. I would offer him arbitration. If he declines then great -- the Reds get an extra 1st round or supplemental draft pick. If he accepts then great -- the Reds keep a good catcher or trade him for a prospect or a pitcher. Either way we get something. If we don't offer arbitration we get nothing.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 08-17-2011 at 04:08 PM.

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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Then be prepared to have him play for the Reds for more money that you care.

    No team will sacrifice its first round pick to sign a short term deal with Hernandez.

    Hernandez may not want to come back to the Reds, but he may have no choice if we offer him arbitration, as he might become unsignable to another team.
    What the others said. MLBTR (for whatever its worth) firmly disagrees with you that he would accept. Half the teams wouldn't have to sacrifice their first round pick to sign him. There is certainly at least a chance.

    And if he does accept, I'm fine having him. He is a veteran presence that could help tutor Mesoraco, and maintain continuity with some of the pitching staff- particularly the spanish speaking guys. Assuming Cordero will not return, it might be nice to have Spanish-speaking veteran leadership in the clubhouse. Especially with Rolen and Arroyo being huge question marks. Not to mention you could get value by trading Hanigan.
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    I'd offer arbitration to both Phillips and Hernandez.

    If Phillips declines, I'd sign a free agent SS/2B (Marco Scutaro, for example) for half his contract and look for a big bopper in LF or a TOR FA or trade target.

    If Hernandez accepts, you can always deal either he or Hanigan for useful spare parts. (Or prospects.)
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    If Hernandez accepts arbitration I don't think he can be traded before June...
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    Re: Arbitration Updates

    I could have sworn, and 1 of the arb experts can confirm/deny this, that if you offer arb and the player accepts it, you can't just trade them right away. It's a good faith thing. Maybe Brutus claimed that?


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