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Thread: My Picks vs. Reds Picks

  1. #1
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    My Picks vs. Reds Picks

    No more Monday-morning QB. I wanted to look back on Reds drafts vs. who I liked at the time. The rules are eligible players had to either be available when the Reds picked, or were taken just a couple picks before the Reds choice (ie Strasburg and other Top 3 picks were not an option). Some of it's pretty, some of it's pretty ugly, but here goes:

    2004
    I wanted: Jered Weaver, Homer Bailey, Stephen Drew (in that order)
    Reds Draft: Homer Bailey

    I was one of the few posters at the time that defended drafting a HS pitcher this high, as for those that remember, this was at the peak of Moneyball and drafting a HS arm in the Top 10 was seen as a cardinal sin. Admittedly, I preferred Weaver who came with a much higher price tag, but I was fine with Bailey or Stephen Drew. This was one of the few years where everyone I liked turned out well.

    2005
    I wanted:Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce
    Reds Draft: Jay Bruce

    I was fine with drafting Bruce, but the guy I really wanted was Maybin. Thankfully in hindsight, he went off the board two picks before us.

    2006
    I wanted: Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum
    Reds Draft: Drew Stubbs

    While many (correctly) pined for Lincecum, the guys I really wanted came off the board just before the Reds picked. I really liked Andrew Miller in particular, who appeared to be close to a sure thing. The Stubbs vs. Lincecum call for me was ho-hum. I much preferred Miller and Kershaw.

    2007
    I wanted: Rick Porcello, Matt Dominguez, Jason Heyward
    Reds Draft: Devin Mesoraco

    I wasn't thrilled about this pick, even though Dominguez and Heyward were both taken immediately before the Reds drafted. Ditto for Wieters, who was never too realistic. Heyward really broke my heart as I thought we had him. I liked Dominguez even better, and had him pegged as a future star 3B. I guess there is still time for that, although Mesoraco has obviously blossomed. Porcello, who was clearly the best (and most expensive) arm in this draft, started off great but has since regressed. Looks like a good call by the Reds.

    2008
    I wanted: Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Justin Smoak, Gordon Beckham, Yonder Alonso
    Reds Draft: Yonder Alonso

    Like many Redszoners and draft pundits alike, I never understood drafting Alonso over Smoak and Beckham. Smoak seemed like a better all-around 1B prospect, and Beckham seemed to fit a need (although he proved that he couldn't stick at SS). While both Smoak and Beckham started off with a bigger spark than Alonso, both have regressed and it remains to be seen which of the three will be the best player. Posey is clearly the gem of this draft, and while I liked him, I liked Matusz's arm even more.

    2009
    I wanted : Grant Green, Tyler Matzek, Aaron Crow
    Reds Draft: Mike Leake

    So far, this looks like another instance of the Reds being right and me being wrong. Green has since moved to CF, and Matzek has struggled in the low minors. Crow has been converted to the bullpen, while Leake has enjoyed the most big league success of any player in this draft so far. Mike Trout, who has emerged as the best prospect (not including Strasburg), was not on my radar- although the Angels' other first round pick Tyler Skaggs, who was later dealt for Dan Haren and has become quite a good prospect, was.

    2010
    I wanted: Drew Pomeranz, Josh Sale, Yasmani Grandal
    Reds Draft: Yasmani Grandal

    I was content with this pick, especially when it looked like Mesoraco would be a bust. So far Grandal has yet to disappoint. Pomeranz was off the board by the time we picked, but he has already returned value to the Indians in the form of Ubaldo Jimenez. Pomeranz looks like a future ace-in-the-making. Probably too early to tell on Josh Sale.

    2011
    I wanted: Josh Bell, Daniel Norris, Robert Stephenson
    Reds Draft: Robert Stephenson

    Bell had signability issues, although he was clearly my preference. Norris and Stephenson were the two best HS arms on the board at the time, and both signed for the same amount. Only time will tell who is better, and while I was rooting for Norris, I'm content with the Reds choice of Stephenson over what else was out there.

    Overall, it looks like the Reds have done a pretty good job with their first round selections in the post-JimBo era. I still wish they would go for more high-priced, high-ceiling guys after the first round, but it's hard to argue with their success in the first round over the last 8 years. I'd be curious if others were willing to identify who they really wanted at the time.
    Last edited by Benihana; 08-17-2011 at 06:56 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: My Picks vs. Reds Picks

    For those of you who are wondering (and I know you're all sitting on the edge of your seats) I liked Scott Kazmir over Gruler in 2002, and Lastings Milledge and Jeffrey Allison over Wagner in 2003 (although I did like Wagner).

    And just for the hell of it, I'll throw out a couple names that I like VERY EARLY for the 2012 Draft:

    Nick Williams and Trey Williams, both HSers, OF and 3B respectively.
    Also, former Reds draftee Devin Marrero is expected to go in the Top 10.

    (And I repeat, it's VERY early)
    Last edited by Benihana; 08-17-2011 at 07:09 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: My Picks vs. Reds Picks

    We'll never know now, but you do wonder if had Gruler stayed healthy, would we be talking about how the Reds made the correct choice in that draft as well? Kazmir has had some so-so years, but I certainly don't think the Reds have missed the boat on him.

    Gruler had that prototypical power pitcher build that the Atlanta Braves always drafted and developed with success: a tall right hander - usually right out of high school, but with a few college guys here and there - with a mid 90's fastball and a decent curveball.

    I thought Johnny Bench's statement that he had a curve ball like Tom Seaver was kind of over the top, but Gruler still was one of the top five pitchers ranked in that draft. Most folks around these parts were mad because the Reds passed on Kazmir (as did half of the other teams in baseball, because like Josh Bell, they really expected him not to sign), and never really gave Gruler a fair shot.

    Of course, his injury situation really was the kicker. But hindsight is 20-20.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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    Re: My Picks vs. Reds Picks

    Gruler went down because of complete shoulder blow up, correct? rotator cuff and all? why i ask is sometimes after a long rest and time to heal- a pitcher can come back.....just saying.

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    Re: My Picks vs. Reds Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Gruler went down because of complete shoulder blow up, correct? rotator cuff and all? why i ask is sometimes after a long rest and time to heal- a pitcher can come back.....just saying.
    He's moved off to business ventures in Scottsdale.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...=.jsp&c_id=mlb

    Watch the video, it's awesome. I might call him about the TPS report processing. LOL.

    http://protegebranding.com/
    Last edited by powersackers; 08-20-2011 at 03:36 PM.

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    Re: My Picks vs. Reds Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    For those of you who are wondering (and I know you're all sitting on the edge of your seats) I liked Scott Kazmir over Gruler in 2002, and Lastings Milledge and Jeffrey Allison over Wagner in 2003 (although I did like Wagner).

    And just for the hell of it, I'll throw out a couple names that I like VERY EARLY for the 2012 Draft:

    Nick Williams and Trey Williams, both HSers, OF and 3B respectively.
    Also, former Reds draftee Devin Marrero is expected to go in the Top 10.

    (And I repeat, it's VERY early)
    This thread is great. I'm a big fan of people admitting they were wrong when they were. There's no question the Reds have done very well in the 1st round for a while now. All have been major league caliber. I know some were down on Stubbs and many were really down on Mesoraco. I thought Mez might have been the worst 1st round draft pick the Reds had made in years at the time. Mez might be the most underrated 1st round draft choice (at the time of the draft) for the Reds that I can remember.

    I remember really wanting Gordon Beckham. He's still young and he's been impressive in the field, but his offensive numbers aren't anything to write home about and I'm not sure he will be. Time will tell. Alonso's bat is legitimate, it's just his defense that is suspect. But I think he could be average at 1B. I think his value has been diminished by the fact that he can only play 1B and he is blocked by 1 of the best 1B in baseball.

    Leake has been an awesome surprise too. We all knew he had the pitches and the control, but for it to have come together so quickly is wowing. He's probably going to be worth 2 WAR by the end of the season in his sophmore year, which is great. No one can say the league hasn't seen him pitch now either.

    It makes you wonder how much the Reds would have had to pony up to get Marrero? Would $1M have done it? I feel like it would have.

    I agree with your assessment too. I'd like to see the Reds taking more risks with high ceiling/high draft choices and ponying up too and they have continued to get better. Don't get me wrong, the BCast regime has ponied up MUCH better than the Lindner regime has by a longshot. However, if the team has decided they aren't going to spend as much on free agents, then I think even more resources should be pumped into the draft. I know these resources can be infinite, but I'm sure they could be higher!


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