It's probably a certainty that the Reds pick up Phillips' option. Not because of his bat.... because of his glove.Originally Posted by dougdirt
It's probably a certainty that the Reds pick up Phillips' option. Not because of his bat.... because of his glove.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I agree completely, but that is also why I wouldn't extend him. His value comes from his glove and he is going to be on the wrong side of 30 for his entire new contract that someone is going to give him. Pick up the option for 2012 and be searching for a replacement starting yesterday.
His stats over the last 4 years would seem to say, stick Brandon in the 2 spot and leave him there.
2011
2010Code:By Batting Order AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Batting #1 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .200 .200 .200 .400 Batting #2 236 38 69 16 0 5 25 13 3 29 4 2 .292 .336 .424 .760 Batting #4 216 25 58 10 1 5 37 16 3 28 3 6 .269 .321 .394 .715
Code:By Batting Order AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Batting #1 315 41 79 11 5 8 33 18 5 42 5 4 .251 .302 .394 .696 Batting #2 180 35 55 15 0 5 9 15 2 22 7 4 .306 .364 .472 .836 Batting #3 34 7 14 1 0 1 4 4 0 4 3 0 .412 .474 .529 1.003 Batting #4 88 11 21 5 0 3 10 7 0 13 1 3 .239 .295 .398 .693
Here are 2008-2010
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits...andon-phillipsCode:By Batting Order AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Batting #1 315 41 79 11 5 8 33 18 5 42 5 4 .251 .302 .394 .696 Batting #2 190 35 56 15 0 5 9 15 2 23 7 4 .295 .351 .453 .804 Batting #3 234 34 63 12 3 5 30 20 2 27 13 4 .269 .327 .410 .737 Batting #4 1012 140 274 48 9 39 159 73 9 156 38 18 .271 .322 .452 .774
Last edited by klw; 08-18-2011 at 04:20 PM.
Phillips is probably the best option for leadoff we have.
He doesn't have the greatest OBP, but his power helps to make up for it.
If the Reds want to play Sappelt too, it really doesn't matter IMO if Sappelt bats 1 or 2.
I admire Phillips a lot. No one can accuse him of not caring.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
He's nearly ideal for the No. 2-hole. Good contact rate, good speed. Gets on base a sufficient amount.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I don't really know. His numbers in the two spot would be ideal if he were able to repeat them there. I just don't know if he would be able to and I am not sure his overall numbers say "ideal #2 hitter".
I've always liked BP in the #2 spot as well.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Agreed. No one else is stepping up...glad to see he is.
-Matt
3 for 4 tonight with a walk on top of that. He's motivated!
I like Phillips hitting 1 or 2 better than in the middle of the lineup, 2nd wouldn't bother me because it would keep Renteria and Janish behind the run producers. I think hitting Bruce 3rd and Votto could be an option as well, Votto will protect Bruce more than Bruce or anybody else has been able to protect Votto. Also if you can find a high OBP leadoff guy to go along with Bruce 3rd with his on-base ability, Joey Votto would be looking at a lot of run producing opportunities. Just Saying
Based on what's available right now, I don't mind Phillips leading off. I'd however bat Bruce 2nd and Votto 3rd. IMO, Votto's not getting pitched to because he has no one to protect him in the lineup, but rather because he's forever coming up with the bases empty and 2 outs. Same reason I like Bruce in the 2 spot. I hate predefined roles. The second hitter's job shouldn't be to bunt or hit behind a runner (handles the bat well!), but rather get on base for your 3 hitter who (there's that role again!) is presumably the best hitter on the team.
Now, if the Reds were somehow able to find a leadoff hitter in the offseason, I'd move Brandon down to 5th or 6th (or even 7th) depending on what 3B looks like.
What about his numbers suggest a lack of being repeatable? I'd say his numbers have been remarkably consistent the last three seasons.
His OBP has been nearly identical, so too has his contact rates; his batting average nearly the same; his slugging has dropped a small bit, but for being a 2-hitter, that's not as important.
If anything, I think Phillips has been extremely consistent. I feel as if we know more about what we'll get out of him than any player on the Reds outside of Paul Janish and Joey Votto on extreme ends of the spectrum.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
This. Brandon "it felt wrong not to swing" Phillips simply does not have the plate discipline.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
I'm with you on this one. There is a difference between a reasonable compromise for the Reds given the context of their roster (i.e. were there better options or not) and an "ideal" option.
Here's a statistical look at Phillips compared to his peers based upon average production across batting order over his career ranked by wOBA (a great metric for summarizing the overall offensive skill set of a hitter):
This comparison suggests that over his career, Phillips best fit the profile of an average #7 hitter given his poor on base skills and low walk rate. Over 600 PAs (roughly his average number per year), he's been .5 WAR below an average major league #2 hitter (i.e. .5 WAR/season below an average #2 hitter).Code:Order BA OPB SLG OPS wOBA BABIP K% BB% ISO Batting 3rd 0.283 0.362 0.475 0.836 0.364 0.307 15.9 10.4 0.192 Batting 4th 0.278 0.358 0.483 0.841 0.363 0.301 17.2 10.5 0.205 Batting 5th 0.269 0.340 0.449 0.790 0.346 0.299 17.7 9.1 0.181 Batting 6th 0.264 0.331 0.432 0.763 0.336 0.298 18.0 8.3 0.167 Batting 1st 0.275 0.340 0.406 0.746 0.335 0.309 14.5 8.1 0.131 Batting 2nd 0.275 0.336 0.412 0.748 0.334 0.307 14.6 7.7 0.136 Phillips 0.269 0.318 0.428 0.746 0.324 0.289 14.2 5.9 0.159 Batting 7th 0.257 0.320 0.404 0.724 0.321 0.292 17.8 7.8 0.147 Batting 8th 0.249 0.316 0.378 0.694 0.306 0.288 18.0 8.2 0.129 Batting 9th 0.213 0.267 0.307 0.575 0.256 0.272 23.3 6.0 0.094
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Although, the last 3 years have Phillips as a .332 wOBA
2015 Rotation: Under Construction
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