Brandon Phillips back batting first

[Guacarock]

Here's the story:

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...k_cin&c_id=cin

What's your take?

Is Brandon better positioned leading off for us than hitting cleanup?

Can this move put us back on a tear, like in 2010, when the Reds went 43-29 with Phillips leading off?

Is he a temporary fix or our answer to set the tables?

What's going on here, is Brandon priming the pump for his contract extension talks or stepping forward as a leader to solve a real team problem?

Did he need to step forward on his own? Could anyone in charge ask him to do so first?

Interesting development, and anything that's this interesting this late in the Dog Days is worth kicking around.

[dougdirt]

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

[The Operator]

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

Agreed. He is miscast anywhere in the top and/or heart of the order. He certainly brings some things to the table but lead off and middle of the order skills aren't it.

[mth123]

Agreed. He is miscast anywhere in the top and/or heart of the order. He certainly brings some things to the table but lead off and middle of the order skills aren't it.

This statement applies to the entire roster not named Bruce or Votto. Besides those two, Phillips, a part time catcher (Ramon), a part time OF (Heisey), a couple positionless kids getting cups of coffee (Frazier and Alonso), a bench jockey (Cairo), a departed Jonny Gomes and 3 pitchers are the only players above the relatively low standard of league average. There really isn't much that Dusty can do to fix the line-up. I criticize his line-ups as much as everyone, but he simply doesn't have the right players to fit together to create a real cohesive unit.

Once again, this curious move is on Walt.

[jojo]

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

Yes.

[osuceltic]

This team has a 3-hole hitter and a bunch of 6/7/8 hitters. And a 9-hole hitter when Janish plays.

They don't have a leadoff hitter. Or a 2-hole hitter. Or a cleanup hitter.

I will say that Brandon Phillips is the least of the problems. He hits wherever the team asks him to hit and offers to help when he thinks he can help. Not his fault the team couldn't fill those other spots in the lineup. Someone has to do it.

[CySeymour]

So then with the current roster, who should be leading off?

[Redsfan320]

So then with the current roster, who should be leading off?

Eesh... I'll go with Sapp for now, let him try to work things out.

320

[RedsManRick]

Name		BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	 Fld	Bsr	WAR
Joey Votto	16%	17%	.207	.366	.321	.434	.528	.414	161	 6.2   -2.9	5.6
Ramon Hernandez  7%	12%	.176	.304	.296	.355	.472	.355	121	-1.0   -2.5	1.9
Jay Bruce	11%	23%	.240	.313	.274	.351	.514	.366	129	 1.2	1.4	3.4
Ryan Hanigan	12%	11%	.094	.264	.249	.344	.343	.309	90	-1.0	0.8	1.2
Miguel Cairo	 7%	11%	.163	.275	.270	.335	.434	.329	104	 7.4	1.0	1.9
Fred Lewis	10%	18%	.101	.290	.247	.333	.348	.295	80	 1.9	0.1	0.3
DatDudeBP	 6%	12%	.133	.299	.282	.329	.415	.321	98	 9.9	2.5	3.4
Drew Stubbs	 9%	30%	.137	.343	.249	.323	.387	.324	100	-4.6	5.3	2.4
Chris Heisey	 6%	25%	.203	.282	.249	.307	.452	.330	104	-0.7	1.4	1.0
Edgar Renteria	 8%	19%	.100	.292	.245	.306	.345	.294	79	-1.3	1.5	0.6
Scott Rolen	 4%	13%	.155	.262	.242	.279	.397	.295	80	 7.3	0.5	1.3
Paul Janish	 5%	12%	.052	.254	.225	.271	.277	.244	45	 1.7	0.7    -0.2

Given our current lineup, if Sappelt is in the lineup, its him. Yeah, he's struggled a bit so far. But it's VERY early. I'd like to see how he handles consistent playing time. His overall game is far-and-away the best fit for the leadoff spot.

If Heisey is in LF, I'd like to see Stubbs there. If you have a guy who strikes out a lot, how do you minimize the damage? You bat him where he's not going to have guys on base as often.

At this point the only major difference bewteen Phillips and Stubbs as hitters is that BP hits singles where Stubbs takes a walk. The overall value is quite comparable. But if you're looking at the 5-7 spots, do you want a walk or a homer.

Don't get me wrong, in the long run I like Stubbs batting 6th -- a guy who can drive in some runs while manufacturing some himself. But for now...

And one other thing, why has it taken Dusty so long to move Hernandez out of the 7/8 spot? He's been the 3rd most productive hitter on the team and it hasn't really been close. If you want to split Votto and Bruce, I'd be doing it with Hernandez.

[Sea Ray]

Phillips isn't a lead off hitter. Phillips isn't a clean up hitter. Phillips is a 6th or 7th hitter.

He shouldn't bat leadoff because his OBP isn't that good.
He shouldn't bat clean up because, well, lets be honest, he isn't that good of a hitter.

So it sounds like you don't think he's worth the $12mill for next year?

[dougdirt]

So it sounds like you don't think he's worth the $12mill for next year?

Tough to say. I would offer him the money to keep him, even though I am not sure he will be worth it. My reasoning is this: If we overpay but still get solid overall production, I can eat a little bit of money there. But if we let him walk and can't land the right guy in free agency to replace him, we don't have anyone in the system to step in right now and take his spot and we are very likely to take a large step backwards there. Give him the money for 2012 and see how things play out on the farm or via trade for a replacement. I would NOT extend him though. Wouldn't even think about it.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Name		BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP*	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	 Fld	Bsr	WAR
Joey Votto	16%	17%	.207	.366	.321	.434	.528	.414	161	 6.2   -2.9	5.6
Ramon Hernandez  7%	12%	.176	.304	.296	.355	.472	.355	121	-1.0   -2.5	1.9
Jay Bruce	11%	23%	.240	.313	.274	.351	.514	.366	129	 1.2	1.4	3.4
Ryan Hanigan	12%	11%	.094	.264	.249	.344	.343	.309	90	-1.0	0.8	1.2
Miguel Cairo	 7%	11%	.163	.275	.270	.335	.434	.329	104	 7.4	1.0	1.9
Fred Lewis	10%	18%	.101	.290	.247	.333	.348	.295	80	 1.9	0.1	0.3
DatDudeBP	 6%	12%	.133	.299	.282	.329	.415	.321	98	 9.9	2.5	3.4
Drew Stubbs	 9%	30%	.137	.343	.249	.323	.387	.324	100	-4.6	5.3	2.4
Chris Heisey	 6%	25%	.203	.282	.249	.307	.452	.330	104	-0.7	1.4	1.0
Edgar Renteria	 8%	19%	.100	.292	.245	.306	.345	.294	79	-1.3	1.5	0.6
Scott Rolen	 4%	13%	.155	.262	.242	.279	.397	.295	80	 7.3	0.5	1.3
Paul Janish	 5%	12%	.052	.254	.225	.271	.277	.244	45	 1.7	0.7    -0.2

Given our current lineup, if Sappelt is in the lineup, its him. Yeah, he's struggled a bit so far. But it's VERY early. I'd like to see how he handles consistent playing time. His overall game is far-and-away the best fit for the leadoff spot.

If Heisey is in LF, I'd like to see Stubbs there. If you have a guy who strikes out a lot, how do you minimize the damage? You bat him where he's not going to have guys on base as often.

At this point the only major difference bewteen Phillips and Stubbs as hitters is that BP hits singles where Stubbs takes a walk. The overall value is quite comparable. But if you're looking at the 5-7 spots, do you want a walk or a homer.

Don't get me wrong, in the long run I like Stubbs batting 6th -- a guy who can drive in some runs while manufacturing some himself. But for now...

And one other thing, why has it taken Dusty so long to move Hernandez out of the 7/8 spot? He's been the 3rd most productive hitter on the team and it hasn't really been close. If you want to split Votto and Bruce, I'd be doing it with Hernandez.

Agree on all points. Great post!

[IslandRed]

I think we can all agree the Reds aren't playing meaningful games right now, so this isn't a time where I'm going to sweat lineup optimization. Just like the important thing is to get Alonso some at-bats even if it means suffering some bad defense, we should get Sappelt some at-bats and not sweat where in the lineup they're coming.

Long term, Sappelt is better suited to lead off than Phillips, but the guy is struggling in his initial exposure to the show. It's not going to hurt him right now to take a deep breath and watch some other guy take the game's first swings.

Also agree fully that our lineup has too many right-handed 6/7 types. It won't hurt if we can reconfigure it a bit over the winter.

[Kc61]

Sappelt isn't the long term answer at lead off. Sappelt may be the long term answer at fourth or fifth outfielder. And Heisey has a big edge over Sappelt as a back up because Heisey has MUCH more power. (Sappelt does make a lot of contact, true.)

Phillips is not an ideal lead off hitter, but it's either him or Stubbs on this team IMO.

And my hope is not that the Reds acquire a truer lead off man. To me, that's secondary. My hope is that they acquire a clean up man to hit between the two lefty sluggers.

Solidify that middle of the order and good things will happen. So I'll take:

Phillips
Cozart
Votto
LF with power
Bruce
Rolen
Stubbs
Hanigan/Mesoraco
Pitcher

-or-

Stubbs
Phillips
Votto
LF with power
Bruce
Rolen
Hanigan/Mes
Cozart
Pitcher

And when Rolen is out, Francisco, Frazier, or Cairo fills in.

I can live with either lineup for next year.

[Sea Ray]

Tough to say. I would offer him the money to keep him, even though I am not sure he will be worth it. My reasoning is this: If we overpay but still get solid overall production, I can eat a little bit of money there. But if we let him walk and can't land the right guy in free agency to replace him, we don't have anyone in the system to step in right now and take his spot and we are very likely to take a large step backwards there. Give him the money for 2012 and see how things play out on the farm or via trade for a replacement. I would NOT extend him though. Wouldn't even think about it.

I agree with that reasoning