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Thread: Votto Trade Value

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Votto Trade Value

    It is safe to say that the fan base is about 50-50 on this notion and with that said he is due to make around 9+ Million next year w/ 17 Million in 2013. With the Yonder Alonso talk w/ 1st being the only option for him (Yet 4 starts in LF at the Major League level doesn't sway me..). Many have suggested the Reds deal their MVP; All-Star 1st Baseman. So I ask.. What could Joey net the Reds?
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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    The easiest way to determine the value is to compare this trade with the Adrian Gonzalez trade last offseason. I would think as Votto would have greater value as he has two more years under contract this offseason while Gonzalez had one more year under contract. Votto is also younger IIRC.

    Boston gave up the Nos. 1, 3 and 6 prospects on the BA Red Sox prospect list in righthander Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Reymond Fuentes.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb...ory?id=5890951
    The Red Sox will ship minor leaguers -- outfielder Reymond Fuentes, right-handed pitcher Casey Kelly and first baseman Anthony Rizzo -- and a player to be named later to San Diego in exchange for Gonzalez.
    The player to be named later was Eric Patterson. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...nt_id=16332932

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...0/2611045.html
    Kelly was the Red Sox' best prospect, while Rizzo was the top offensive player and Fuentes was the best athlete in the Boston system. They'll all earn the same superlatives with their new organization. Matt Eddy is still fine-tuning our Padres list, but I suspect Kelly will rank No. 1, Rizzo will check in at No. 3 behind him and righthander Simon Castro, and Fuentes could make a push for No. 4 but probably will settle a little bit lower. It's possible that all three will fall in the exact same positions that they did on our Red Sox list.

    As for the Top 100, Kelly is a lock and should fit in the 20-40 range. Rizzo probably will make it somewhere toward the bottom, but it's too early for Fuentes.

    Another analogous trade would be Teixeira to the Braves from Texas.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?...mlb&id=4040418
    Though he didn't stay with the Braves a full year, Texas will open the 2009 season on Monday with three players from the deal who will be starters: catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Elvis Andrus and left-hander Matt Harrison.

    And that's not all the Rangers got for a player who obviously didn't want to stay in Texas and is with his third team since leaving.

    Hard-throwing 20-year-old starter Neftali Feliz could be close to his major league debut and Beau Jones is a left-handed reliever in the minors. None of quintet is older than 23.
    Votto was ranked by Fangraphs recently as the 7th most valuable asset in baseball. Jiminez was 25th, Jay Bruce 22nd.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...de-value-10-1/
    #7 – Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati: +18.5

    There’s no question that Votto is a premier player in baseball, and if the Reds could have gotten him locked up sooner, he’d be several spots higher on this list. But with just two years and $27 million left on his deal after 2011, it’s tough to put him any higher than this. Breakouts like Votto are exactly why teams are becoming so aggressive in trying to get their young stars locked up early, because the Reds are now facing the reality that they might lose him in a few years. His next contract is going to be nutty, and it might not come from the Reds.
    In the 2010 ranking Fangraphs did not rank Gonzalez saying this:
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-introduction/
    Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego – There’s nothing wrong with Gonzalez’s skillset, but he’s a case where contracts come into play. He’s a bargain for 2011 at just $4.5 million in salary, but then he’s a free agent and he’s looking for a huge, huge paycheck. The Padres could get a lot for one year of Gonzalez, but I don’t think any of the teams who have guys on this list would swap them for the time that is left on his contract.
    They ranked Votto 8th last year saying this:
    While people talk about what Adrian Gonzalez would command in a trade, imagine if he was just 26 years of age and had three more seasons before he became a free agent. You don’t have to wonder what that would look like – just look at Votto, who is basically the same player, just with a much better contract situation. He’s a beast of a hitter, a true middle-of-the-order slugger who can pound the baseball but doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone. Given the going rate of power hitters, Votto’s should be a huge bargain through 2013. I can’t imagine any scenario where the Reds would trade him at this point.
    Last edited by klw; 08-19-2011 at 03:02 PM. Reason: Add more stuff

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    It is safe to say that the fan base is about 50-50 on this notion and with that said he is due to make around 9+ Million next year w/ 17 Million in 2013. With the Yonder Alonso talk w/ 1st being the only option for him (Yet 4 starts in LF at the Major League level doesn't sway me..). Many have suggested the Reds deal their MVP; All-Star 1st Baseman. So I ask.. What could Joey net the Reds?
    I would say the RZ fan base may be 50-50 on the notion but the entire Reds fan base? I would say the entire Reds fan base would be about 80-20 don't trade Votto. Fans love their superstars, and rightfully so.

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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Great analysis by KLW, most interesting read. But I suspect if we do trade Votto, the return we'll be seeking will be different than Gonzalez or Teixeira fetched.

    We are under the gun to win now, so a boatload of prospects wouldn't satisfy that need. Also, our farm system is relatively flush right now. It's at the ML level where we have a few gaps.

    What might we want in lieu of prospects? The missing pieces to give us a leg-up to compete in 2012, 2013 and, hopefully, beyond. We have debated many times about those missing pieces and all know what they are -- LF, SS, and a TOR starting pitcher.

    So, let's say the Toronto Blue Jays struck up a conversation with Jocketty this winter or next winter about taking Joey off our hands. That's a reasonable potential destination for our MVP, seeing as how it's his hometown and he could immediately energize not only the team but their fan base.

    If I'm Jocketty, I would only entertain the trade discussions if the potential return clearly filled our most pressing needs. Here are three possible scenarios:

    1. Straight-up deal -- our superstar for yours, Votto for OF-3B Bautista.
    2. Two-fer deal -- We get two top-notch ML talents for Votto. Maybe neither equals him individually but together they bring us exceptional value in areas where we are clearly lacking. Players on the Blue Jays that might fit those descriptions: SS Escobar, SP Romero, SP Morrow, OF Lind.
    3. Finally, I could see a potential for a hybrid, three-fer deal -- namely, one of the above players along with a couple of complementary Blue Jays prospects. Say Escobar was the linchpin, then the prospects might consist of an OF (Gose) and a SP. But if Romero was the linchpin, maybe he's flanked by an OF (Gose) and a SS (Hechavarria).

    I figure the casual fans would only get jazzed about option no. 1, and would cry foul if we accepted any return less than Bautista. But I actually prefer the other two alternatives -- they give us more bang for the buck, a more balanced team, and in the case of option no. 3, a big helping of cake while letting us eat it, too.
    Last edited by Guacarock; 08-19-2011 at 04:33 PM.

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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    So, let's say the Toronto Blue Jays struck up a conversation with Jocketty this winter or next winter about taking Joey off our hands. That's a reasonable potential destination for our MVP, seeing as how it's his hometown and he could immediately energize not only the team but their fan base.

    If I'm Jocketty, I would only entertain the trade discussions if the potential return clearly filled our most pressing needs. Here are three possible scenarios:

    1. Straight-up deal -- our superstar for yours, Votto for OF-3B Bautista.
    2. Two-fer deal -- We get two top-notch ML talents for Votto. Maybe neither equals him individually but together they bring us exceptional value in areas where we are clearly lacking. Players on the Blue Jays that might fit those descriptions: SS Escobar, SP Romero, SP Morrow, OF Lind.
    3. Finally, I could see a potential for a hybrid, three-fer deal -- namely, one of the above players along with a couple of complementary Blue Jays prospects. Say Escobar was the linchpin, then the prospects might consist of an OF (Gose) and a SP. But if Romero was the linchpin, maybe he's flanked by an OF (Gose) and a SS (Hechavarria).

    I figure the casual fans would only get jazzed about option no. 1, and would cry foul if we accepted any return less than Bautista. But I actually prefer the other two alternatives -- they give us more bang for the buck, a more balanced team, and in the case of option no. 3, a big helping of cake while letting us eat it, too.
    Outstanding post.

    Personally, I like the Bautista option best. But the other two are reasonable.

    There's no doubt Toronto would LOVE to have Votto. Their GM is a transaction machine, and it's likely he ingratiates himself to ownership if he brings home the favorite son. A lot for Jocketty to tie into there, I think.
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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    The trade I've been pushing since before the deadline is votto for Lind plus another player. Im intrigued by the idea of bringing rasmus to cinci too.
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    Mr. Underhill signalhome's Avatar
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    The trade I've been pushing since before the deadline is votto for Lind plus another player. Im intrigued by the idea of bringing rasmus to cinci too.
    I'll pass on Lind.

    Code:
    Year	G	PA	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Fld	Bsr	WAR
    2006	18	65	22	2	8	8	0	7.7 %	18.5 %	.233	.435	.367	.415	.600	.432	162	-0.1	-1.5	0.4
    2007	89	311	69	11	34	46	1	5.1 %	20.9 %	.162	.269	.238	.278	.400	.291	72	6.3	0.9	0.4
    2008	88	349	92	9	48	40	2	4.6 %	16.9 %	.156	.317	.282	.316	.439	.325	96	-6.1	0.9	0.1
    2009	151	654	179	35	93	114	1	8.9 %	16.8 %	.257	.323	.305	.370	.562	.394	140	-9.8	1.9	3.7
    2010	150	613	135	23	57	72	0	6.2 %	23.5 %	.188	.277	.237	.287	.425	.309	89	-2.8	-4.3	-0.7
    2011	98	427	104	22	49	72	1	6.1 %	18.0 %	.199	.273	.265	.309	.464	.331	108	-1.7	-0.4	1.0
    
    Total   594     2419    601     102     289     352     5       6.6 %   19.3 %  .201    .298    .270    .320    .472    .339    107     -14.2   -2.4    4.9
    Aside from 2009, Lind has been pretty bad. A 107 wRC+ for a 1B just isn't going to cut it (especially for someone that can't field), even in this weakened offensive environment.

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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Trade Votto to the Nationals for Strasburg, Harper, and Espinosa.
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    The trade I've been pushing since before the deadline is votto for Lind plus another player. Im intrigued by the idea of bringing rasmus to cinci too.
    I really hope that the fan base wouldn't settle for something like this. Walt Jocketty cannot sell the best player this franchise has had since Barry Larkin for the likes of Adam Lind and riff raff. And while Rasmus is intriguing, he absolutely cannot in any way shape or form be the main piece we get back for the National League MVP.

    I'd initiate talks with the Dodgers for Matt Kemp. I think Votto for Kemp would be reasonable.

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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Here's what I would prefer be the Votto Plan for the next 14-18 months:

    Use trade assets to get a thumper for left field to protect Joey in the lineup for 2012. Could even be a one-year guy. Truly go all-in for the Central next year. Hope that you make a splash and win some games, make the post-season and sell lots of seats. Then go back to Joey *next* off-season and talk contract extension. One hopes the good buzz and fun season could get him to bite. Something fair, but not franchise-restrictive. Deferred money etc. If he doesn't go for it, explore a Votto trade that off-season. Can use the money earmarked for him to sign the thumper to a deal, and get other pieces back for Votto.

    Note: If the plan bombs next season and 2012 is lost too, then entertain trades at mid-season for both the one-year thumper and Joey.
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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    The easiest way to determine the value is to compare this trade with the Adrian Gonzalez trade last offseason. I would think as Votto would have greater value as he has two more years under contract this offseason while Gonzalez had one more year under contract. Votto is also younger IIRC.

    Boston gave up the Nos. 1, 3 and 6 prospects on the BA Red Sox prospect list in righthander Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Reymond Fuentes.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb...ory?id=5890951

    The player to be named later was Eric Patterson. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...nt_id=16332932

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...0/2611045.html



    Another analogous trade would be Teixeira to the Braves from Texas.
    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?...mlb&id=4040418


    Votto was ranked by Fangraphs recently as the 7th most valuable asset in baseball. Jiminez was 25th, Jay Bruce 22nd.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...de-value-10-1/


    In the 2010 ranking Fangraphs did not rank Gonzalez saying this:
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-introduction/
    They ranked Votto 8th last year saying this:
    Quote Originally Posted by Guacarock View Post
    Great analysis by KLW, most interesting read. But I suspect if we do trade Votto, the return we'll be seeking will be different than Gonzalez or Teixeira fetched.

    We are under the gun to win now, so a boatload of prospects wouldn't satisfy that need. Also, our farm system is relatively flush right now. It's at the ML level where we have a few gaps.

    What might we want in lieu of prospects? The missing pieces to give us a leg-up to compete in 2012, 2013 and, hopefully, beyond. We have debated many times about those missing pieces and all know what they are -- LF, SS, and a TOR starting pitcher.

    So, let's say the Toronto Blue Jays struck up a conversation with Jocketty this winter or next winter about taking Joey off our hands. That's a reasonable potential destination for our MVP, seeing as how it's his hometown and he could immediately energize not only the team but their fan base.

    If I'm Jocketty, I would only entertain the trade discussions if the potential return clearly filled our most pressing needs. Here are three possible scenarios:

    1. Straight-up deal -- our superstar for yours, Votto for OF-3B Bautista.
    2. Two-fer deal -- We get two top-notch ML talents for Votto. Maybe neither equals him individually but together they bring us exceptional value in areas where we are clearly lacking. Players on the Blue Jays that might fit those descriptions: SS Escobar, SP Romero, SP Morrow, OF Lind.
    3. Finally, I could see a potential for a hybrid, three-fer deal -- namely, one of the above players along with a couple of complementary Blue Jays prospects. Say Escobar was the linchpin, then the prospects might consist of an OF (Gose) and a SP. But if Romero was the linchpin, maybe he's flanked by an OF (Gose) and a SS (Hechavarria).

    I figure the casual fans would only get jazzed about option no. 1, and would cry foul if we accepted any return less than Bautista. But I actually prefer the other two alternatives -- they give us more bang for the buck, a more balanced team, and in the case of option no. 3, a big helping of cake while letting us eat it, too.
    excellent posts guys.

    lets assume that the Reds move Votto this offseason & use Alonso at 1B. We would have left Mes/Hanigan, Alonso, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Bruce, Stubbs along with Cueto, Leake, Bailey, Arroyo, Chapman, Bray, Lecure, Ondrusek & Masset. what would be missing for the club to really compete?

    1) power hitting left fielder. a really big bopper.
    2) production from 3B
    3) TOR starter(s)

    who would be the key guys to go in deals to get these guys? Votto, Grandal, Sappelt. Bailey if the rotation was upgraded. maybe Frazier or Francisco. while this is doable it would require a lot of groundwork & creativity. it would mean at least 2 trades & one of those could easily be a 3-4 team deal (Votto for star prospects then flip prospects for other needs). to me this would be a very atypical trade for the current Reds management to make.
    .

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Some ideas:

    1. Toronto: Votto and Bailey for Romero and Rasmus?
    2, LAD: Votto for Kemp?
    3. Cleveland: Votto for Choo and Masterson?
    4. Baltimore: Votto for Markakis and Guthrie?
    5. Washington: Votto, Volquez and Frazier for Zimmerman and Zimmerman?

    Not thrilled abut dealing Joey. I'd keep him as long as possible and try to win while he's here. To that end, I'd look at TB and dangle Alonso and Grandal for Shields plus. Maybe throw in more to get something else. If dealing Joey becomes the only way, then a deal like those above would be the only pallatable type IMO. No interest in a 1 for 3 or 4 deal. The Reds already are overloaded with role players and kids. They need more top end players not to deal one of the few on hand for an assortment of lottery tickets and stopgaps.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Some ideas:

    1. Toronto: Votto and Bailey for Romero and Rasmus?
    2, LAD: Votto for Kemp?
    3. Cleveland: Votto for Choo and Masterson?
    4. Baltimore: Votto for Markakis and Guthrie?
    5. Washington: Votto, Volquez and Frazier for Zimmerman and Zimmerman?

    Not thrilled abut dealing Joey. I'd keep him as long as possible and try to win while he's here. To that end, I'd look at TB and dangle Alonso and Grandal for Shields plus. Maybe throw in more to get something else. If dealing Joey becomes the only way, then a deal like those above would be the only pallatable type IMO. No interest in a 1 for 3 or 4 deal. The Reds already are overloaded with role players and kids. They need more top end players not to deal one of the few on hand for an assortment of lottery tickets and stopgaps.
    1. No way!
    2. Not possible, isn't Kemp a FA after this season?
    3. Like Choo but he and Masterson aren't enough IMO.
    4. No way!
    5. This has some merit to it but I doubt Washington would have interest. Zimmerman (3B) is one of the few I would consider dealing Votto for. But even Zimmermans bat isn't quite as good. Z's defense at 3B though is sick. And he is a very similar individual to Votto character wise.
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Some ideas:

    1. Toronto: Votto and Bailey for Romero and Rasmus?
    2, LAD: Votto for Kemp?
    3. Cleveland: Votto for Choo and Masterson?
    4. Baltimore: Votto for Markakis and Guthrie?
    5. Washington: Votto, Volquez and Frazier for Zimmerman and Zimmerman?

    Not thrilled abut dealing Joey. I'd keep him as long as possible and try to win while he's here. To that end, I'd look at TB and dangle Alonso and Grandal for Shields plus. Maybe throw in more to get something else. If dealing Joey becomes the only way, then a deal like those above would be the only pallatable type IMO. No interest in a 1 for 3 or 4 deal. The Reds already are overloaded with role players and kids. They need more top end players not to deal one of the few on hand for an assortment of lottery tickets and stopgaps.
    1. Pass. Though Votto for Bautista is worthy of heavy consideration.
    2. Yes
    3. Pass
    4. Pass
    5. Possibly, but if we're throwing in two extra players, they should too
    Last edited by Reds/Flyers Fan; 08-19-2011 at 11:18 PM.

  16. #15
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Votto Trade Value

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    1. Pass. Though Votto for Bautista is worthy of heavy consideration.
    2. Yes
    3. Pass
    4. Pass
    5. Possibly, but if we're throwing in two extra players, they should too
    Votto for Bautista is a no brainer. Not sure the Jays would do that though. If I were the Jays GM I'd ask for Leake to be thrown in. Romero is an ace and Bailey is a guy with shoulder problems. The upgrade to the rotation would be enormous and Romero is signed through 2015. Rasmus in the OF picture with Bruce and Stubbs might be pretty good. If I was the TOR GM, I wouldn't make that trade given Votto's current contract situation and Bailey's 3 DL stints and inconsistency.

    Votto for Kemp is a win now move. Kemp is a FA after 2012. I probably wouldn't do it if I was the Reds.

    Votto, Volquez and Frazier for Zimmerman and Zimmerman is another deal I'd do. Zimmerman would give the Reds the best 3B in the NL who could hit in the middle of the order with Bruce and Alonso. I wouldn't deal Zimmeroman for Votto straight up if I was the Nats GM because of the positional/defensive differences. Jordan Zimmerman would be a solid number two starter. You wouldn't deal Volquez and Frazier for him? The Nats would be the team to pass on this deal.

    Votto for Choo and Masterson is probably the deal I like most here. Masterson would also be a huge rotation upgrade and Choo has had a bad year, but that was injury related and he should return to the .880+ OPS guy he was in 2009 and 2010. The Reds would have control for a while. I doubt that CLE would do that though.

    I'd pass on Votto for Markakis and Guthrie myself. Not nearly enough.

    This just shows how hard it will be to get value for Votto unless the Reds want to take a bunch of kids and start the rebuilding all over again. Its why I'd just keep him as long as possible and deal Alonso for help.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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