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Thread: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

  1. #31
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Arredondo is a dark horse for the closer slot.

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  3. #32
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Arredondo is a dark horse for the closer slot.
    Volquez is mine.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Volquez is mine.
    That's interesting....with that Bugs Bunny changeup when everybody is expecting gas that could be scary, or it could be Ryan Franklin-esque.

    As long as it's not Masset.

  5. #34
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Volquez is mine.
    For me, Volquez is a lottery ticket. I don't give it away until the numbers are revealed (but would be happy to deal it for a decent return), but I don't spend the money before I know I have a winner. I hope the Reds go with a closer who has more certainty. I certainly don't move forward on an assumption that Volquez can do it or even pitch on back to back days. Its not as easy as everyone wants to make it seem. Some guys just can't do it. IMO, Homer Bailey, for example, would have a problem pitching on consecutive days. Don't count on Volquez for anything. In 2011, the Reds spent the Volquez lottery winnngs (by counting on him as the "Ace") before they knew the winning numbers and it was a large part of the season going south.

    I think Chapman might be the "best" choice considering cost and other priorities (I don't think he'll be much help in the rotation w/o a full season in AAA starting, so moving him now will just waste him IMO), but I hope the Reds have more than one guy that they can and are willing to use in the 9th. We really don't know if Chapman can pitch frequently enough to be a sole closer on a good team that may need him 3 or 4 nights in a row. If he is, the other guys make a deep pen, but if he's not, the Reds could undermine the season without some other alternatives.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    That's a valid reason. "Wasting" him in the closer role because he might be Randy Johnson is not. (Even Randy Johnson wasn't Randy Johnson until he was 29.)
    Funny. So Chapman at 23 years of age with the CEILING of Randy freakin' Johnson should be wasted as a closer? And because Randy Johnson took till he was 29 to become someone you liked then Chapman will take that long? Hopefully the Reds aren't quite so short-sighted with such a great talent! Oh, and by the way, Randy Johnson pitched 220 innings with a 3.65 ERA at age 26; that might be OK compared to what we are running out there, don't you think?

    Bum

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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Funny. So Chapman at 23 years of age with the CEILING of Randy freakin' Johnson should be wasted as a closer? And because Randy Johnson took till he was 29 to become someone you liked then Chapman will take that long? Hopefully the Reds aren't quite so short-sighted with such a great talent! Oh, and by the way, Randy Johnson pitched 220 innings with a 3.65 ERA at age 26; that might be OK compared to what we are running out there, don't you think?

    Bum
    He wouldn't be wasted as a closer. Championship teams have great closers. Go check.

    Dominant starters take longer to develop, especially left-handed ones.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  8. #37
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    He wouldn't be wasted as a closer. Championship teams have great closers. Go check.

    Dominant starters take longer to develop, especially left-handed ones.
    Championship teams with great closers that are 23 years old? Dominant starters don't always take longer to develop and being left handed has nothing to do with it. Some pitchers with tremendous "stuff," like Chapman, take a little longer to get their control completely in order. That doesn't mean a team should just give up and make them a 60 inning pitcher and not take the time necessary to develop the player. At this point in his career, he would be wasted as a closer. He has so much more talent than that.

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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Championship teams with great closers that are 23 years old? Dominant starters don't always take longer to develop and being left handed has nothing to do with it. Some pitchers with tremendous "stuff," like Chapman, take a little longer to get their control completely in order. That doesn't mean a team should just give up and make them a 60 inning pitcher and not take the time necessary to develop the player. At this point in his career, he would be wasted as a closer. He has so much more talent than that.

    Bum

    I think one of the main questions, when it comes to Chapman's role next year, will be: are the Reds willing basically to do without him as a big league asset for a year?

    If he is to start, he will have to be stretched out over ST and the early past of the season. This won't happen in Cincy, so he will start the season in Louisville. Once he gets to the point where he can give you five maybe six innings on a regular basis, you will have to look at his contol. Will multiple inning cure or exasperate his control issues?

    Even in the best of circumstances, you're probably looking at him joining the Reds sometime in June with about 50-60 innings already under his belt. I can't see them pitching him much more than about 120-130 inning next year - 150 at the most - (considering his worklaod the past couple of years). That means they probably shut him down sometime in mid-August or so. It will probably be 2014 before he's ready for 200 innings.

    I;d do it (especially if they can go out and land someone like Shields over the winter), but I'm not sure the Reds will. I think they'll take the route of least resistance - ;eave him in the pen and let him work his way into the closer's route.

  10. #39
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    No one was going to pay Arroyo either. I don't disagree with you that they shouldn't pick it up, I just imagine that they will. If Dusty is still around, I think it is almost a guarantee that they pick it up.

    Bum
    I disagree. Westbrook was not nearly as durable, yet the Cardinals signed him quick.

    Arroyo has been disappointing this year, but prior to that, he was a very solid bet.

    The Reds aren't going to sign Cordero next year.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I disagree. Westbrook was not nearly as durable, yet the Cardinals signed him quick.

    Arroyo has been disappointing this year, but prior to that, he was a very solid bet.

    The Reds aren't going to sign Cordero next year.
    Westbrook is making $8M this year and $8.5M next year not $35M over 3 years...regardless of deferrals, that is what he is being paid. And, I have liked Arroyo, I just think that contract didn't make much sense with the market that was out there.

    Honestly, I don't think the Reds should pick up Cordero's option, but they will. He doesn't have to be signed.

    Bum

  12. #41
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    as much as I'd love to see him start since Dusty isn't starting him now and I doubt he goes to the Arizona fall league I'd say his chance to start is basically nada. Even if they doubled his innings he'd be lucky to make it to the AS break. I really don't know the Reds plans, but I'd think he'd get a good look at closing. This team doesn't really have anyone - maybe Arredondo.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  13. #42
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Volquez is mine.
    He'd be my first choice too, at least to try. I would love it if the Reds were that creative. I'm not sure that they are.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds1 View Post
    as much as I'd love to see him start since Dusty isn't starting him now and I doubt he goes to the Arizona fall league I'd say his chance to start is basically nada. Even if they doubled his innings he'd be lucky to make it to the AS break. I really don't know the Reds plans, but I'd think he'd get a good look at closing. This team doesn't really have anyone - maybe Arredondo.
    He did throw 118 innings his last season in Cuba, and 108 combined last year (I'm rounding partial innings here), so going to 140-150 wouldn't be too much of a stretch. I fear that he is just going to rot in the pen forever. It would be a crime if that arm didn't at least get a chance to start. Could be a true difference maker.

  15. #44
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    He wouldn't be wasted as a closer. Championship teams have great closers. Go check.

    Dominant starters take longer to develop, especially left-handed ones.
    They also have great starters. Which is easier to find?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #45
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?

    The thing I worry about with Volquez is his temperament and ability to perfrom under pressure.

    But him as a closer is intriguing and maybe a way to resurrect his career.

    Pay attention to the open sky


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