The ninth inning is too important to gamble it away with Volquez, Arredondo, Bailey. Reds need a real closer. In fact, while there are other needs, I think the Reds will focus heavily this winter on the closer/set up man combo.
My guess is either Coco will sign again relatively cheaply or the Reds will acquire a veteran closer from the outside. I think they will groom Boxberger as the closer down the line.
I also think the Reds will acquire a set up man to replace Masset. I dont see Nick in that role next year.
While the Reds need a high level starter and LF, I'm more confident that this front office will make acquisitions for the bullpen. Relievers are just easier to come by.
As for Aroldis, I see him being stretched out over the winter. Don't be shocked if he spends the first half of 2012 as a long man in the pen getting ready to start. I don't see Chapman at AAA, too big a salary.