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Thread: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Baserunning is part of the offensive package... Is 30 HR's more impressive than 90+ sb's? I've heard more than 1 story of how disruptive Hamilton is by being on first base alone... I haven't heard anything about how a pitcher reacts after allowing Soto to clear the bases...
    30 HR's is more impressive than a sub .700 OPS, I know that no amount of base running is going to make up the difference.

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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Not that it does or doesn't make up the difference, but I felt the need to share something that I do for players who accumulate a significant amount of stolen bases (20+). Since OPS doesn't give ANY value for SB's (good or bad), I sometimes feel the need to do a little adjusting.

    OBP is Hits + Walks / Total Plate Appearances

    and

    SLG is Total Bases / At Bats

    So, making a "Steals Adjusted (SA) OPS" should be fairly simple.

    SAOBP is Hits + Walks - Caught Stealing

    and

    SASLG is Total Bases + Stolen Bases - Caught Stealing / At Bats

    This adjustment penalizes a player for a CS by taking away from BOTH his OBP AND his SLG and rewards a player's SLG for each SB.

    And why shouldn't we rewards a player's SLG for a SB? As OPS currently stands, if player 1 hits a double and then stays on second base but player 2 hits a single and then proceeds to steal both 2nd and 3rd, player 1 has the higher OPS...this just isn't a logical evaluation.

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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Billy Hamilton "Steals Adjusted OPS"

    Actual OBP: .335, SAOBP: .299
    Actual SLG: .354, SASLG: .493
    Actual OPS: .689, SAOPS: .792

  5. #34
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    I really don't know,but this thread has brightened my view of Reds baseball this year.

    I do enjoy this forum. Thanks all you guys that keep us MiLB illiterates in the know.
    Last edited by wlf WV; 09-02-2011 at 10:02 PM.

  6. #35
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by TylerScottDavis View Post
    Billy Hamilton "Steals Adjusted OPS"

    Actual OBP: .335, SAOBP: .299
    Actual SLG: .354, SASLG: .493
    Actual OPS: .689, SAOPS: .792
    It doesn't work that way. His steals don't just add slugging on a 1-1 basis. His steals don't advance other runners.

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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It doesn't work that way. His steals don't just add slugging on a 1-1 basis. His steals don't advance other runners.
    It's not perfect, but it's something and I think it's better than totally ignoring the value of a stolen base.

    Many base-hits don't advance other runners (probably the vast majority don't), yet they all count the same towards a player's SLG and OPS.

    There's also the example I gave above, in which the base-stealer is left with the lower OPS despite achieving better results, so it can work both ways.

    I don't know much about the other offensive metrics out there, but OPS in its current form leaves speed dependent players severely undervalued.

  8. #37
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by TylerScottDavis View Post
    It's not perfect, but it's something and I think it's better than totally ignoring the value of a stolen base.

    Many base-hits don't advance other runners (probably the vast majority don't), yet they all count the same towards a player's SLG and OPS.

    There's also the example I gave above, in which the base-stealer is left with the lower OPS despite achieving better results, so it can work both ways.

    I don't know much about the other offensive metrics out there, but OPS in its current form leaves speed dependent players severely undervalued.
    Every base hit advances a runner unless the runner is an idiot. A single is always going to advance another runner at least one base. If not, then its a fielders choice and a hit it is not.

    And a single doesn't count the same as a double in OPS or SLG. Just like a double doesn't count the same as a triple or a HR. They are all different.

    While steals aren't ignored, even a ton of them, they are absolutely a secondary skillset to hitting the ball or walking.

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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post

    While steals aren't ignored, even a ton of them, they are absolutely a secondary skillset to hitting the ball or walking.
    Because the effect a guy like Hamilton has on the game when he reaches first base isn't quantifiable by current sabermetric statistics?

    I'm pretty sure that OPS doesn't register how the pace of the game changes when a blazer like Hamilton gets on base. It doesn't register how a pitcher is probably more likely to rush his delivery and miss his spots. I'm also pretty sure it doesn't register how defensive shifts to hold him close to the bag open up holes in the infield for the guy in the box. I'm again pretty sure that it doesn't calculate how it allows him to turn a single into a double or triple by moving himself over without the help of another hitter...

    Finally, the notion that doubles and triples are more statistically effective at moving other runners is absurd. OPS doesn't calculate whether another hitter is on base. If another batter hits 20 doubles with nobody on base, nobody advances an extra base on the hit. Likewise, with Hamilton being a lead-off hitter, the chances that the 8/9 guys in the line-up have hit their way into scoring position prior to his AB are pretty slim...
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Every base hit advances a runner unless the runner is an idiot. A single is always going to advance another runner at least one base. If not, then its a fielders choice and a hit it is not.

    And a single doesn't count the same as a double in OPS or SLG. Just like a double doesn't count the same as a triple or a HR. They are all different.

    While steals aren't ignored, even a ton of them, they are absolutely a secondary skillset to hitting the ball or walking.
    He meant that the majority of hits occur when no one is on base, therefore no one can advance.

    In 2011, 57% of the Reds hits have come with no one on base.

    And a single is not always going to advance a runner one base.

    Example:a runner on 2nd, hitter hits a ground ball into the hole at short. Runner stays at 2nd as the ball is hit in front of him and he might be an easy out at 3rd. Runner beats out the throw to first, and gets correctly credited with a hit. You see this happen once in a while.

    Example #2: Runner on 2nd , less than 2 outs, batter hit a short pop to LF. It drops in, but the LF grabs it quickly and runner on 2nd cannot advance. Again, it's a hit, not a fielders choice.

    Your statement of "a runner has to advance for it to be called a single" is only true when there is a runner on first.

    Incidentally, sometimes a runner only advances one base on a double. Example, runner on 2nd, less than 2 outs, Hitter hits a flare down the left field line which drops in. The speedy batter gets easily to 2nd and correctly has a double, but the baserunner can only advance one base to 3rd.

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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Because the effect a guy like Hamilton has on the game when he reaches first base isn't quantifiable by current sabermetric statistics?

    I'm pretty sure that OPS doesn't register how the pace of the game changes when a blazer like Hamilton gets on base. It doesn't register how a pitcher is probably more likely to rush his delivery and miss his spots. I'm also pretty sure it doesn't register how defensive shifts to hold him close to the bag open up holes in the infield for the guy in the box. I'm again pretty sure that it doesn't calculate how it allows him to turn a single into a double or triple by moving himself over without the help of another hitter...

    Finally, the notion that doubles and triples are more statistically effective at moving other runners is absurd. OPS doesn't calculate whether another hitter is on base. If another batter hits 20 doubles with nobody on base, nobody advances an extra base on the hit. Likewise, with Hamilton being a lead-off hitter, the chances that the 8/9 guys in the line-up have hit their way into scoring position prior to his AB are pretty slim...
    Whether or not a runner is one base for a guy to move over is not that batter problem. It always is a theoretical runner.

    You could attempt to measure it by doing a proportion test of say OPS of hitters when Billy is on base vs when he is not. I personally do not want to dig up those stats but you are more than welcome.
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  12. #41
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbachunk View Post
    Whether or not a runner is one base for a guy to move over is not that batter problem. It always is a theoretical runner.

    You could attempt to measure it by doing a proportion test of say OPS of hitters when Billy is on base vs when he is not. I personally do not want to dig up those stats but you are more than welcome.
    I can't say what is influenced by Hamilton here, but given that Hamilton bats 1 and Torreyes bats 2 and Torreyes he only been around for the second half (plus two games) and Hamilton has been pretty solid in the second half, here are the splits of Torreyes with runners on and without runners on:

    Code:
    Entire Season	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
    Bases Empty	158	2	1	3	5.4%	7.8%	.354	.400	.437	.837
    Runners On	116	7	4	0	4.1%	4.1%	.371	.408	.500	.908
    The two lines are pretty similar with the lone difference being the power advantage when the bases have someone on them.

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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Code:
    Entire Season	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
    Bases Empty	158	2	1	3	5.4%	7.8%	.354	.400	.437	.837
    Runners On	116	7	4	0	4.1%	4.1%	.371	.408	.500	.908
    The two lines are pretty similar with the lone difference being the power advantage when the bases have someone on them.
    The difference between the two OPSes is the same as the difference between Justin Upton's and Jhonny Peralta's.

    The difference in slugging is Jay Bruce to Starlin Castro or Kelly Johnson.
    Last edited by Scrap Irony; 09-04-2011 at 05:27 PM.
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  14. #43
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    The difference between the two OPSes is the same as the difference between Justin Upton's and Jhonny Peralta's.

    The difference in slugging is Jay Bruce to Starlin Castro or Kelly Johnson.
    Yes, but the sample size isn't even two hundred at bats either. And the difference really comes from the power. I am not sure we can draw much there with what we have. I mean all of his HR's have come with no one on base, but his doubles and triples totals are much higher with someone on base. Does any of it have to do with someone being on base or not being on base or is it simply a random effect going on in a small sample size? We aren't really going to be able to answer that.

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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    I get the small sample size , but you brought the seasonal lines up as "proof" it didn't mean anything.

    If those numbers hold true, having Hamilton on base means plenty.
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  16. #45
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I get the small sample size , but you brought the seasonal lines up as "proof" it didn't mean anything.

    If those numbers hold true, having Hamilton on base means plenty.
    I think you misread something. I said "I can't say what is influenced by Hamilton here" then went into the stats for Torreyes.


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