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Thread: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

  1. #46
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    The difference between the two OPSes is the same as the difference between Justin Upton's and Jhonny Peralta's.

    The difference in slugging is Jay Bruce to Starlin Castro or Kelly Johnson.
    For what it's worth, there is a league wide split for bases empty vs. runners on base:

    Bases Empty: .251/.312/.396, .707
    Runners On: .261/.331/.402, .733

    There's also the simple matter of looking at 158 AB vs. 116. If you're trying to predict a player's true skill from that sample, the confidence intervals are massive.

    Basically, it's something like this:

    His OPS with the bases empty is something between .637 and 1.037. His OPS with runners on .658 and 1.158. We can't say with any certainty within those windows what his "true talent" split is (in this case, true talent could be defined as including Billy Hamilton -- this is about variance given samples).

    Given that, how confident would be you that the observed split is representative of the actual one? We just can't read much of anything in to an observed split like that. And that's what Doug was saying.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #47
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    Re: RZ - MiLB Reds Hitter of the Year

    Whoops.

    My bad, doug.

    Looks like I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher


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