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Thread: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

  1. #46
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Phillips' immediate future isn't up in the air. It's a virtual certainty that he's a Red next year.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #47
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    Unless one of those guys tears through AA/AAA without ANY problems the Reds probably won't have an internal replacement in April 2013 either. And even when they think they have someone ready chances are it WON'T be one of those rare prospects that will hit from the get go when they make it to the majors. Maybe BP will still resign after next year. I don't think the Reds should wait til then though. Banking on a Reds prospect to be ready to take over that soon is wishful thinking.
    Well, I think there are clearly two different situations. Gregorius is a shortstop with above average defense. So his "tear" wouldn't have to be the kind of "tear" that Henry Rodriguez would have to go on, who is a second baseman with average type defense. And I am not sure they would have to tear through AAA. If Gregorius spends 400 AB's in Louisville and hits .280/.340/.400 I think he would get a solid look.

  4. #48
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    I think the Reds will sign Phillips, probably for three years with a team option/buyout for 2015. My guess is $10 M per year or a bit more.

    It would be a debatable move if they do, but the team doesn't have many good veterans and I think they will want to hold on to Brandon, even recognizing that certain of his skills will undoubtably decline. They will feel he'll remain average or above for his position during that time.

    Some teams would let BP walk soon and get a replacement in the open market. Reds don't really function very much in the open market. Their conservative nature leads me to believe they will keep BP.

    I doubt the Reds will see any upcoming prospect as the answer at second in the next couple of years.

    If they sign Brandon, my guess is they will eventually groom Billy Hamilton as his replacement. Hamilton is the type of prospect you plan around.

  5. #49
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, I think there are clearly two different situations. Gregorius is a shortstop with above average defense. So his "tear" wouldn't have to be the kind of "tear" that Henry Rodriguez would have to go on, who is a second baseman with average type defense. And I am not sure they would have to tear through AAA. If Gregorius spends 400 AB's in Louisville and hits .280/.340/.400 I think he would get a solid look.
    That would make him a solid SS prospect, but a drop off from Phillips. I don't see anyody matching Phillips on Offense or Defense. The Reds seem to have some guys to choose from. The offensive guy who would create the huge drop-off on the defensive side, probably will still struggle to be as good offensively as Phillips. The defensive guy, who would be a huge drop-off from Phillips on offense, probably won't be the all world defender that Phillips is.

    Either way, its a huge drop off on the horizon. I have hope that Torreyes can approximate Phillips in a few years, but he has a long long way to go. I'm not sure that the Reds can keep Phillips financially, but if he ends up leaving, I'd prefer Gregorious based on what little I know so far. I generally don't like offense first guys at 2B. Defense first guys like Phillips who can also hit a little are pretty rare and the team will suffer a drop when he goes IMO.

    One thought is that the Reds invoke the option, let him test free agency and then offer arb if no one internally is ready. Chances are, the arb award will still be a bigger annual salary than any deal he gets. It might be a best of both worlds scenario. No long term commitment, but still buys time for the kids. Thinking about it, I'd try that route if I were the Reds unless I could get a bargain deal from Phillips.
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  6. #50
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    That would make him a solid SS prospect, but a drop off from Phillips. I don't see anyody matching Phillips on Offense or Defense. The Reds seem to have some guys to choose from. The offensive guy who would create the huge drop-off on the defensive side, probably will still struggle to be as good offensively as Phillips. The defensive guy, who would be a huge drop-off from Phillips on offense, probably won't be the all world defender that Phillips is.

    Either way, its a huge drop off on the horizon. I have hope that Torreyes can approximate Phillips in a few years, but he has a long long way to go. I'm not sure that the Reds can keep Phillips financially, but if he ends up leaving, I'd prefer Gregorious based on what little I know so far. I generally don't like offense first guys at 2B. Defense first guys like Phillips who can also hit a little are pretty rare and the team will suffer a drop when he goes IMO.

    One thought is that the Reds invoke the option, let him test free agency and then offer arb if no one internally is ready. Chances are, the arb award will still be a bigger annual salary than any deal he gets. It might be a best of both worlds scenario. No long term commitment, but still buys time for the kids. Thinking about it, I'd try that route if I were the Reds unless I could get a bargain deal from Phillips.
    Defensively, I honestly think Gregorius has the range of Phillips covered. Phillips plays second base because he wasn't a great shortstop. Didi is a very good rangy shortstop. With the bat, I think that you are right. I don't expect him to be Phillips good, but I think that he could match Phillips soon enough. Phillips is likely going to decline.

    But at the same time, we are talking 8-10 million in savings that first season that Phillips would get from a new contract too. So there are certainly a lot of variables that need to be looked at in regards to Phillips, but I do know that the chances I would offer him an extension are incredibly small.

  7. #51
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Defensively, I honestly think Gregorius has the range of Phillips covered. Phillips plays second base because he wasn't a great shortstop. Didi is a very good rangy shortstop. With the bat, I think that you are right. I don't expect him to be Phillips good, but I think that he could match Phillips soon enough. Phillips is likely going to decline.

    But at the same time, we are talking 8-10 million in savings that first season that Phillips would get from a new contract too. So there are certainly a lot of variables that need to be looked at in regards to Phillips, but I do know that the chances I would offer him an extension are incredibly small.
    I hope you're right. I've been watching the Reds through a number of gold glovers at 2B. Tommy Helms, Brett Boone and Joe Morgan were all considered elite defenders. Phillips is way better than any of them IMO. Only 1999 Pokey Reese is in the same category as Phillips on defense from what I've seen. I'd guess that Gregorious, as a strong defender at SS, would be a good defender at 2B, but assumimg a guy would be at Phillips level at 2B is a huge assumption that I'm not willing to make. Ron Oester was a gifted SS who made the switch and became a good second baseman, but he wasn't in the same Time Zone as Phillips. I'd bet if Paul Janish was moved to 2B, he'd still take a back seat to Phillips defensively as well.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  8. #52
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'd bet if Paul Janish was moved to 2B, he'd still take a back seat to Phillips defensively as well.
    I would take that bet if there were a way to make it happen. Phillips moved off of shortstop and was never moved back because he isn't a shortstop. He has a shortstops arm, but he has at best, average shortstop range. At second base, that is very good range. Take a shortstop with above average range and put them at second and you get a guy with great range at 2B.

    Now, one thing Phillips has that a lot of other guys don't, are incredible hands. That is one of the reasons he can make some of the plays he does, that other guys with similar range can't. Well that and his arm that some other second baseman don't have.

  9. #53
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I would take that bet if there were a way to make it happen. Phillips moved off of shortstop and was never moved back because he isn't a shortstop. He has a shortstops arm, but he has at best, average shortstop range. At second base, that is very good range. Take a shortstop with above average range and put them at second and you get a guy with great range at 2B.

    Now, one thing Phillips has that a lot of other guys don't, are incredible hands. That is one of the reasons he can make some of the plays he does, that other guys with similar range can't. Well that and his arm that some other second baseman don't have.
    We'll have to disgree. A lot of guys who play 2B were guys who started out at SS. Why aren't there more who are better than Phillips?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #54
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    I may be in the minority, but I'd love to see if Phillips would accept a 2 year extension on top of the option. Maybe 3 years + option if the money is right. He may not do that, but worth a shot. I think it's going to be a long time before the Reds have a 2B in his place who will have similar production.

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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I may be in the minority, but I'd love to see if Phillips would accept a 2 year extension on top of the option. Maybe 3 years + option if the money is right. He may not do that, but worth a shot. I think it's going to be a long time before the Reds have a 2B in his place who will have similar production.
    You can see a dynamic where the negotiation with BP focuses on a fourth year, maybe even a fifth.

    Reds will want three years including next.

    If Brandon will take next year plus two with an option-buyout in the fourth, I would strongly expect a deal.

  12. #56
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    We'll have to disgree. A lot of guys who play 2B were guys who started out at SS. Why aren't there more who are better than Phillips?
    Because they also moved to 2B because they weren't shortstops.

    Guys move off of shortstop as they move up for different reasons. Some move off because they don't have the arm. Some move off because they don't have the range. Some move off because they don't have the hands. Some for multiple of those reasons.

    Phillips has a strong arm and GREAT hands. Toss in very good range at second and its tough for other failed shortstops to live up to that because not all of those guys can match that combo.

    Todd Frazier used to play shortstop. His range simply would never allow him to be close to Phillips at second base. Lots of guys fit a similar bill. So that large group of former shortstops simply don't have a chance to be as good as Phillips. Guy's who moved from SS because of an arm or hands issue may have the matching range, but because of the other two, they simply can't make the same plays where Phillips hands or arm are the difference between an out and an infield hit.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 09-04-2011 at 03:15 PM.

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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Phillips has incredible range at 2B, great hands, and a very strong arm.

    Gregorius, at least in the limited time I've seen him, has two of those three, at least.

    Offensively, he's a different animal.

    Rodriguez is similar to Phillips offensively, but his defense will only grade out at around league average.

    That won't be so bad if Cincinnati can find more production from the SS (likely), LF (possible), 3B (likely), CF (maybe), or RF (likely).
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  14. #58
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Just to back Doug up on this, I've watched Gregorious for about a month and he had made some amazing plays, including a few last night. He is the best defensive short stop we've had this year. Now, as for him playing second, I don't know if he's ever done it. I'll ask him about it though and how he feels there.

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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    why do all these things have to become public! Oh it's BP we are talking about. It's a lock he signs - why he had to say anything I'll never understand.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  16. #60
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips not thrilled about uncertain future

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds1 View Post
    why do all these things have to become public! Oh it's BP we are talking about. It's a lock he signs - why he had to say anything I'll never understand.
    I remember it becoming public multiple times with Pete Rose, Johnny Bench and many others. No big deal IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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