Reds recall Volquez

[mth123]

The front office made some mistakes last winter, but no one could have projected the extent to which the Reds rotation imploded this season. Not even the late Jeane Dixon could have foretold:

* That Bailey and Cueto would land on the DL coming right out of the chute.
* That Arroyo would suffer a bout of mono that would sap his strength all season long.
* That Wood would fall prey to the dreaded sophomore jinx.
* That Volquez would experience a fall of epic proportions, reduced from ace all the way to being sent back to Louisville to rediscover his groove.
* That Leake, arguably our most reliable starter for a long stretch of the season, would get embroiled in an embarrassing shoplifting incident and also get marooned to Louisville for the first time in his short career.

Even as reputable an authority as David Cameron from Fangraphs was asserting last December that the Reds had the best rotation in the NL Central division. We did, potentially, have the best rotation, but when even your most dependable, veteran innings-eater (Arroyo) goes down along with every one of the young guns, then you have to chalk it up to us being snakebit.

In hindsight, it's easy to blame the front office, but I have no doubt that this kind of disastrous turn of events would have sunk the seasons of nearly every franchise in baseball, not just the Reds. The exceptions: probably the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies, but as we all know, they can buy their way out of any misfortune.

Its not hindsight. Plenty of people were saying the rotation needed an upgrade last winter. Plenty thought unproven kids and guys coming off of injury were a poor foundation.

I was lobbying for a deal for Matt Garza. Many said he wasn't an upgrade. He clearly is.

[Guacarock]

Its not hindsight. Plenty of people were saying the rotation needed an upgrade last winter. Plenty thought unproven kids and guys coming off of injury were a poor foundation.

I was lobbying for a deal for Matt Garza.

As I recall, you were lobbying first and foremost for us to get a middle-of-the-order bat and a legitimate lead-off man. You might have also mentioned Garza in passing, but that was certainly not the drum you were banging the loudest back then.

Again, 20-20 vision is always possible in hindsight. I'm not trying to gig you here, just saying that none of us projected the degree to which the rotation melted in 2011, so it's not particularly fair or insightful to pin that failure on the front office at this late date.

Mind you, I'm not letting the front office get a free pass, either. There were other problems that happened in 2011 that were easier to foresee, and nothing much constructive got done to address them in advance.

[WVRedsFan]

There aren't any Reds fans that like that. I'm not saying he's going to be a superstar but 2 years ago, a lot of people were really down on Cueto. Lot of walks, high pitch counts, etc. It's easy for us as fans to want to chuck these guys when they don't play up to snuff but this isn't fantasy baseball and there's no reason to get rid of guys just because they try our patience. Young starters with Volquez' stuff don't come along every day. Josh Hamilton's gone and there's nothing we can do about it. Maybe he won't be any more than a 5th starter but there's no reason not to find out.

Chip, and in the meantime, the losing continues. I wish him the best, but hoping that Volquez comes around is simply not acceptable. Edinson Volquez's history is out there for everyone to see. It's not good. Yes, i hope he comes around, but no one, and I repeat no one expects that and that is the problem. I just hope tht the franchise doesn't get fooled into thinking he's "fixed" this time around. The annointing of him to opening day starter still sticks in my craw. There was no reason to think he deserved that and he proved it time and time again. Two trips to AAA where he dominated was all it took to make the brain trust think he was ready to be the hammer. Yeah, right. And so we do it again. How often does it take to realize the kid is fool's gold in hopes that his "stuff" is enough?

That said, I hope I'm wrong and I'll gladly eat crow if that be the case, but can anyone really have confidence in his ability to "come around?" Sorry, but I cannot.

[reds1869]

2008 Certainly shows what he is capable of. If he gets his head right he has the potential to be very good, though I realize that is a very big if. I don't think it is time to give up on him but I also think he must be made to earn his way back into the rotation. Ifnhe can't but pitches passably, is he really so unworthy of a bullpen spot?

[mth123]

As I recall, you were lobbying first and foremost for us to get a middle-of-the-order bat and a legitimate lead-off man. You might have also mentioned Garza in passing, but that was certainly not the drum you were banging the loudest back then.

Again, 20-20 vision is always possible in hindsight. I'm not trying to gig you here, just saying that none of us projected the degree to which the rotation melted in 2011, so it's not particularly fair or insightful to pin that failure on the front office at this late date.

Mind you, I'm not letting the front office get a free pass, either. There were other problems that happened in 2011 that were easier to foresee, and nothing much constructive got done to address them in advance.

Here is a post in the Grienke thread dated 10-22-2010

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=306

Another couple from late October discussing the need to convert question marks for production in the rotation.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=315

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=328

Here is one from the trade proposal thread.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...33&postcount=9

I certainly wanted help in LF and the middle of the order, but I and many others spent a lot of time discussing the need for more certainty in the rotation. If some of us internet poster goofs can see it, Walt had to be able to see it. Its either indifference or incompetence that nothing was done IMO. I think Walt has proven capable in his career. My guess is that he's just a caretaker until his deal runs out after the season. I could be wrong about Walt's future, but going into 2011 with so many question marks was clearly a bad idea (and not hindsight).

It also isn't hindsight to say if they don't addres the rotation this winter, 2012 will look just as shaky.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

I had hoped that we would never see EV pitch in a Reds uniform again. Unfortunately, he's back. I honestly don't care if he closes out the year 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA. It's nothing more than fool's gold with this head case and I've seen enough. But, knowing the Reds "braintrust," they're just looking for any reason to count on him as a No. 1 or No. 2 next year, and he'll be annointed 2012 Opening Day starter before Oct. 1.

[BCubb2003]

I actually think the front office is expecting Volquez to start at the bottom. They sent him down, and kept him there several days after they could have called him up. Cueto's the ace now, and Volquez is just another guy trying to earn a spot.

[cincrazy]

Agreed. People are too quick to write him off. Again, I would approach the 2012 rotation as if he didn't exist. If he could be dealt for real value, deal him. If not see what happens. A spot always opens up in a 5 man rotation and he just may be ready to step in and perfrom with more time away from TJ. If not, what is the harm?

Even if he's horrible, its time to shut Leake down. His innings are near maxing out.

I don't think Edinson's arm comes into play here. The guy couldn't throw strikes before TJ, and while TJ surgery can help reclaim lost velocity or sometimes even make you throw harder, it doesn't help someone locate, and that's always been his problem. His first few months in a new league where batters had never seen him led this fan base, and this organization, into thinking he was something he isn't.

Granted, the guy has the pure raw stuff to prove me wrong, no question. But he'll be 30 in a few years, and I just don't see a light bulb going on any time soon.

However, I won't discount the fact that we could spin him off and still get something of value for him. Guys that throw that hard will always get a ton of chances. I'd just rather see him get no more in Cincy.

[pedro]

I think of lot of folks just don't want to go through his antics on the mound--the first inning woes, the walks, the high pitch counts which wear out the bullpen. I think every Reds fan wants him to succeed badly. The Reds need a hammer, but many can't see that ever happening and realize that the hammer has to come through free agency. They also have seen his act too often to believe he'll ever be anything but a 5th starter. All Reds fans want to win and want EV to do well, but have no confidence he will.

He's a gangster thug and you can't stand him so the Reds should just cut bait.

We get it.

That's not going to happen at this point so you might want to just learn to accept it and the fact that some of actually think he might still have some value to the Reds.

[jojo]

I wonder who will walk more batters over the rest of the season-Volquez or Willis?

[jojo]

He's a gangster thug and you can't stand him so the Reds should just cut bait.

I'm just glad he's not sporting one of those ridiculous mohawks that seem to be in vogue in sports right now.

[mth123]

I don't think Edinson's arm comes into play here. The guy couldn't throw strikes before TJ, and while TJ surgery can help reclaim lost velocity or sometimes even make you throw harder, it doesn't help someone locate, and that's always been his problem. His first few months in a new league where batters had never seen him led this fan base, and this organization, into thinking he was something he isn't.

Granted, the guy has the pure raw stuff to prove me wrong, no question. But he'll be 30 in a few years, and I just don't see a light bulb going on any time soon.

However, I won't discount the fact that we could spin him off and still get something of value for him. Guys that throw that hard will always get a ton of chances. I'd just rather see him get no more in Cincy.

Well, Volquez command/control struggles prior to injury were nothing like we've seen since his comeback. Before arm troubles, Volquez was walking about 4.0 to 4.3 guys per 9 innings. This year that number is 5.8 per 9. Worse yet, his command in the zone is causing him to leave a lot of fat ones that get hit hard to the tune of 1.6 HR/9 as opposed to around 1.0 prior to his problems. Command/control is usually the last thing to come back from TJ and rarely before 24 months after surgery. Volquez took the mound in Cincy about 11 months after TJ. The 24 month mark didn't pass until August of 2011 when he was in AAA. His 2010 and 2011 major league numbers need to be taken with a huge grain of salt IMO.

If Volquez returns to pre-TJ levels he'd still be a guy who struggles with control like before, but would cut 1.5 BB/9 and .5 HR/9. Given his abilty to miss bats and the Reds still strong defense behind him, it would probably make him a solid major league starting pitcher (and better than at least half the guys the team is running out there now). Cutting the walks would get him deeper into games. Of course, it isn't a given that he'll be able to cut those numbers from what we've seen in 2011, but making conclusions based on 2010 and 2011 is short sighted IMO.

Again, get 5 guys who start out ahead of him and see what he does if an opportunity comes along. Trade him if you get something decent. Don't count on him. Don't give him away.

[nate]

I'm just glad he's not sporting one of those ridiculous mohawks that seem to be in vogue in sports right now.

Dude, don't harsh the Gomeshawk!

[_Sir_Charles_]

The front office made some mistakes last winter, but no one could have projected the extent to which the Reds rotation imploded this season. Not even the late Jeane Dixon could have foretold:

* That Bailey and Cueto would land on the DL coming right out of the chute.
* That Arroyo would suffer a bout of mono that would sap his strength all season long.
* That Wood would fall prey to the dreaded sophomore jinx.
* That Volquez would experience a fall of epic proportions, reduced from ace all the way to being sent back to Louisville to rediscover his groove.
* That Leake, arguably our most reliable starter for a long stretch of the season, would get embroiled in an embarrassing shoplifting incident and also get marooned to Louisville for the first time in his short career.

Even as reputable an authority as David Cameron from Fangraphs was asserting last December that the Reds had the best rotation in the NL Central division. We did, potentially, have the best rotation, but when even your most dependable, veteran innings-eater (Arroyo) goes down along with every one of the young guns, then you have to chalk it up to us being snakebit.

In hindsight, it's easy to blame the front office, but I have no doubt that this kind of disastrous turn of events would have sunk the seasons of nearly every franchise in baseball, not just the Reds. The exceptions: probably the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies, but as we all know, they can buy their way out of any misfortune.

Fantastic post. Exactly as I feel. I would've liked to have seen them pull the plug quicker on Wood & Volquez (mainly Edinson), but considering the depth we had going into the season...snakebit is the word I've been using most all season long.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Wood got hit hard in Indianapolis last night. I was there.