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Thread: Closer for 2012

  1. #16
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Exactly. There are 135 qualified relievers in MLB this year. Cordero is solidly below average. Here's how the Reds relievers rate:
    Code:
            IP    ERA    FIP    xFIP    xFIP Rank
    Bill Bray    43.0    2.72    2.88    4.13    32
    Aroldis Chapman 41.2    3.89    3.26    3.26    NA (just missed the cut)
    Nick Masset    63.1    3.98    3.49    3.77    65
    Sam LeCure    47.2    3.21    3.92    3.56    90
    Coco Cordero    60.2    2.37    4.03    3.97    97
    Jose Arredondo    44.2    3.22    4.21    4.35    110
    Logan Ondrusek    54.2    2.80    4.28    4.39    114
    Cordero has a .205 BABIP this year. If he weren't already a closer, nobody would think of making him one. In fact, he's the kind of guy that would be fighting for a middle relief job with most teams. If he weren't already a Red, nobody would be arguing that we should pursue him in FA.

    If Cordero were special, I could understand an argument for wanting to pay him. But he's not. Paying good money for mediocre relievers is about the most wasteful thing a team can do. Thanks for your service Fransisco. I'm sure you're a great dude. But the Reds can't afford to spend money on a brand when the production is just mediocre.
    Don't just about all relievers/closers scream small sample size though? I agree that Cordero's numbers this year are on the lucky side. However, does nobody here remember the bullpen situations we saw BEFORE he arrived? IMO the biggest plus to bringing him back is that it almost assures that we'll see Chapman switched to starting. If he's NOT brought back, the temptation for them to try him out as a closer will be just TOO tempting for them to resist. And Chapman's arm and talent will just be wasted in such a low number of innings IMO.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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  3. #17
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Don't just about all relievers/closers scream small sample size though? I agree that Cordero's numbers this year are on the lucky side. However, does nobody here remember the bullpen situations we saw BEFORE he arrived? IMO the biggest plus to bringing him back is that it almost assures that we'll see Chapman switched to starting. If he's NOT brought back, the temptation for them to try him out as a closer will be just TOO tempting for them to resist. And Chapman's arm and talent will just be wasted in such a low number of innings IMO.
    Sure, all relievers are subject to small samples. But all that does is make us question to what degree a given observed performance is really a function of skill. This isn't news. In his time as a Red, Cordero has been an average at best major league reliever. People just don't appreciate how many relievers there are who miss bats and throw strikes.

    As for the past, well, it's the past. I'm not going to make a decision about how much to pay Cordero based on the ineptitude previous GMs have shown in acquiring quality relievers cheaply. You wouldn't pay ~10% of your payroll for an all-field, no hit SS nor for a platoon LF who could only hit lefties and even then, just pretty well. But that's what relievers are like.

    Frankly, I just don't understand the rest of your logic. It isn't like we get to make this decision and then current Reds management handles the rest. That's just silly. Either we're making a recommendation or we're not. Imagining we can influence just one decisions doesn't really make sense. If the Reds think about pitching talent as I do and would like them to, the same thought process which leads to not retaining Cordero puts Chapman in the rotation.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #18
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Sure, all relievers are subject to small samples. But all that does is make us question to what degree a given observed performance is really a function of skill. This isn't news. In his time as a Red, Cordero has been an average at best major league reliever. People just don't appreciate how many relievers there are who miss bats and throw strikes.

    As for the past, well, it's the past. I'm not going to make a decision about how much to pay Cordero based on the ineptitude previous GMs have shown in acquiring quality relievers cheaply. You wouldn't pay ~10% of your payroll for an all-field, no hit SS nor for a platoon LF who could only hit lefties and even then, just pretty well. But that's what relievers are like.

    Frankly, I just don't understand the rest of your logic. It isn't like we get to make this decision and then current Reds management handles the rest. That's just silly. Either we're making a recommendation or we're not. Imagining we can influence just one decisions doesn't really make sense. If the Reds think about pitching talent as I do and would like them to, the same thought process which leads to not retaining Cordero puts Chapman in the rotation.
    Well, the way I'm looking at it is this. If the Reds don't resign Cordero, they have 2 options. Get a new closer from outside via trade or FA. Either way, it's going to be extremely expensive as closers are overpriced as a general rule IMO. The other option is to promote a current reds reliever to the closer slot. And again, IMO, there's nobody on the roster that I like in that role. And if forced to choose, I firmly believe that the Reds FO would choose Chapman as that in-house option.

    I just think that we could get Cordero for a cheaper amount than what we would get via FA or via a trade. He clearly wants to be here, and I firmly think we can get him at a much cheaper price.

    In his time here, he's gotten 143 saves and blown 23. I'm sure there are some that have had better results in these 4 years...but there aren't many. As for the K's, you "can" be a successful closer without a high K rate. He makes things interesting and can drive fans nuts, but at the end of the day...he usually gets the job done. We've seen it time and time again relievers who have good numbers simply crash and burn when thrust into the closers role. I know some don't buy into the "pressure" and "different mindset" stuff, but I certainly prefer someone with experience in those situations to someone who just has excellent stuff.

    I also realize that he's getting up there in years too so he's due to decline. Well, if he does and we're forced to move him out of the closers role, he can still be of value as a set-up man or middle reliever. But regardless, we just don't have an in-house option that's ready right now and I think he'll provide the most viable option for a cheaper rate than FA.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  5. #19
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #20
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Yes, but what will it take to sign her Jojo? Small market team and all. :O)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  7. #21
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Yes, but what will it take to sign her Jojo? Small market team and all. :O)
    The Reds might have the inside track.....

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #22
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Forget it. She's more overrated than CoCo. Have you seen her Babip?
    Last edited by tixe; 09-05-2011 at 04:37 PM.

  9. #23
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    So, anybody see Dontrelle as a potential closer? I know such things were mentioned when the Reds signed him, but haven't heard people promoting this since he went into the rotation. I would hope the reds would spend money on a good starter in the offseason, which could set up this move.

  10. #24
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    ^^Agreed. Id LOVE to re-sign Cordero for a 2yr/12-14mil deal. I think that's fair for both parties.

    -Matt
    Be careful what you wish for.

    Most fans in Reds Country wanted the Reds to offer Arthur Rhodes a 2 yr. deal.

  11. #25
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    So, anybody see Dontrelle as a potential closer? I know such things were mentioned when the Reds signed him, but haven't heard people promoting this since he went into the rotation. I would hope the reds would spend money on a good starter in the offseason, which could set up this move.
    No thank you. He's a LOOGY. Pretty much always has been. He could be a contributor as the lefty middle reliever, but otherwise, no thanks.

    Code:
    2011	IP	K%	BB%	FIP	xFIP
    vL	14.2	32.1	 3.8	2.20	2.08	 
    vR	44.2	12.6	12.1	4.77	4.46
    
    Career	IP	K%	BB%	FIP	xFIP
    vL	223.0	29.4	8.3	2.52	2.90	 
    vR	982.1	14.3	9.6	4.61	4.70
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-05-2011 at 05:23 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #26
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Well, the way I'm looking at it is this. If the Reds don't resign Cordero, they have 2 options. Get a new closer from outside via trade or FA. Either way, it's going to be extremely expensive as closers are overpriced as a general rule IMO. The other option is to promote a current reds reliever to the closer slot. And again, IMO, there's nobody on the roster that I like in that role. And if forced to choose, I firmly believe that the Reds FO would choose Chapman as that in-house option.
    Why can't the Reds just acquire a good reliever who isn't a "closer" but has a strong K/BB and misses plenty of bats? Closers, as you noted are expensive. Set up guys aren't as expensive. Find one of those guys. Make a deal. Pay that guy to close your games.

  13. #27
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by tixe View Post
    So, anybody see Dontrelle as a potential closer? I know such things were mentioned when the Reds signed him, but haven't heard people promoting this since he went into the rotation. I would hope the reds would spend money on a good starter in the offseason, which could set up this move.
    LOOGY.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #28
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Well, the way I'm looking at it is this. If the Reds don't resign Cordero, they have 2 options. Get a new closer from outside via trade or FA. Either way, it's going to be extremely expensive as closers are overpriced as a general rule IMO. The other option is to promote a current reds reliever to the closer slot. And again, IMO, there's nobody on the roster that I like in that role. And if forced to choose, I firmly believe that the Reds FO would choose Chapman as that in-house option.
    Another way of looking at it: don't overpay for someone who gets a lot of "saves."

    I just think that we could get Cordero for a cheaper amount than what we would get via FA or via a trade. He clearly wants to be here, and I firmly think we can get him at a much cheaper price.
    Then you've paid for production you have for cheap/free in players like LeCure/Masset/Volquez/Bray and no longer have that money to fix real problems

    In his time here, he's gotten 143 saves and blown 23. I'm sure there are some that have had better results in these 4 years...but there aren't many. As for the K's, you "can" be a successful closer without a high K rate. He makes things interesting and can drive fans nuts, but at the end of the day...he usually gets the job done.
    In the end, given a similar number of opportunities, most relief pitchers will get the job done.

    We've seen it time and time again relievers who have good numbers simply crash and burn when thrust into the closers role. I know some don't buy into the "pressure" and "different mindset" stuff, but I certainly prefer someone with experience in those situations to someone who just has excellent stuff.
    I'll take the stuff every time. It will eventually become experienced. The experienced won't regain the stuff.

    I also realize that he's getting up there in years too so he's due to decline. Well, if he does and we're forced to move him out of the closers role, he can still be of value as a set-up man or middle reliever.
    Not for what he'll cost when the team has more glaring needs.

    But regardless, we just don't have an in-house option that's ready right now
    Yes we do.

    and I think he'll provide the most viable option for a cheaper rate than FA.
    I'm unconvinced.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  15. #29
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Who do you like, nate, as closer?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  16. #30
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Closer for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Why can't the Reds just acquire a good reliever who isn't a "closer" but has a strong K/BB and misses plenty of bats? Closers, as you noted are expensive. Set up guys aren't as expensive. Find one of those guys. Make a deal. Pay that guy to close your games.
    It sounds good in theory...but think about how many times we see relievers absolutely fail when thrust into the closers role. I'm all for adding a top notch reliever...but whether we agree with this or not, not everyone is suited for or can handle the closer role.

    Just over the past couple of years I've seen many a Reds name thrown out there as being the "next" closer. Burton, Masset, Arredondo, Chapman...now I'm reading Arroyo, Volquez, Bailey, Boxberger, etc, etc, etc. We went with retreads in the closers role for years and we consistently had a HORRIBLE bullpen. Once we added a legitimate established closer, the pen turned around like night and day. I'm not saying Cordero is a great reliever, I'm not even saying he's a great closer...I'm saying he's better at that role than anybody we currently have, and most likely cheaper than any established guy we don't have.

    But let me reiterate, I'm not against us bringing in a different established closer. But just a guy who's had good bullpen numbers but no closing experience? No thanks. Not for that role for a club who thinks to contend next year.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG


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