Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
Except MLB isn't an industry, all of professional baseball is. MLB is the top 600 guys in the profession. A BIG factor in becoming part of that 600 and becoming an effective part of that 600 is an ability to handle pressure.
Frankly, I don't know that managers actually know that. I imagine they think they do. And I imagine that some guys are more comfortable in some situations than in others. But we don't know if those things actually affect performance. But to take just a few examples:
Mariano Rivera
Save situations: .202/.250/.272, .522 OPS
Non-save situations: .213/.269/.297, .567 OPS
17 points of OPS better when "under pressure"
Trevor Hoffman
Save situations: .203/.251/.336, .587 OPS
Non-save situations: .225/.293/.353, .646 OPS
59 points of OPS better when "under pressure"
Jonathan Papelbon
Save situations: .197/.260/.301, .561 OPS
Non-save situations: .208/.259/.316, .575 OPS
14 points of OPS worse when "under pressure"
Fransisco Cordero
Save situations: .242/.324/.351, .674 OPS
Non-save situations: .229/.318/.334, .652 OPS
22 points of OPS worse when "under pressure"
Wow, Coco's mental edge really shows. But what if it's not about performing better, it's just not performing worse? Let's look at some guys who have a reputation for not having the mentality and see how they fare.
Kyle Farnsworth
Save situations: .244/.321/.398, .719 OPS
Non-save situations: .241/.317/.385, .702 OPS
17 points of OPS worse when "under pressure"
Jon Rauch
Save situations: .251/.289/.422, .711 OPS
Non-save situations: .242/.305/.382, .687 OPS
24 points of OPS worse when "under pressure"
(I wanted to look at Weathers and LaTroy Hawkins, but their data is skewed by having significant amounts of innings in games they started, which would seriously bias this split)
I'd have to look at a lot more pitchers than just this handful of guys to get a full picture, but suffice it to say that it's highly likely that many guys we view as having the "closer mentality" don't actually perform like you'd expect and vice versa. It's a fun narrative, but to me it seems riddled with confirmation bias. We give a guy a label early on and then whatever happens, we find a way to explain it using the narrative we've constructed.
Is Cordero is a better closer than David Weathers because because he's especially mentally tough -- or is he just a better pitcher regardless of circumstance?
But besides that, what really makes relievers feel pressure? Which is greater pressure -- getting out of a bases loaded jam in the 7th or getting 3 outs with the bases empty in the 9th? If I've got one greater reliever, I'm using him in the 7th there. And if I'm building a roster, I'm not going to pay extra for a guy just because he's saved games. I'll pay the guy for his ability to get outs. And if by chance, I come across a guy who has a long track record of falling apart in "high pressure" situations, well, I probably wouldn't sign him to begin with.
One more for the road...
Nick Masset
Save situations: .264/.338/.353, .691 OPS
Non-save situations: .262/.338/.390, .728 OPS
37 points of OPS better when "under pressure"
Looks like we have our next closer already in our midst!