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Thread: Jay Bruce's Defense

  1. #1
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    Jay Bruce's Defense

    Has he been overvalued in the field? Or did he just have an incredible 2010?

    His 2008 wasn't inspiring, but he was a rookie. 2009 was very good, but it was half of what his 2010 was in terms of his URZ rating. 2011 though? He's been a negative defender.

    2008 (108 games): -2.4
    2009 (101 games): +9.2
    2010 (148 games): +19.7
    2011 (135 games): -0.5*

    *2011 is obviously not finished yet

    So who is the real Jay Bruce in the field?

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Has he been overvalued in the field? Or did he just have an incredible 2010?

    His 2008 wasn't inspiring, but he was a rookie. 2009 was very good, but it was half of what his 2010 was in terms of his URZ rating. 2011 though? He's been a negative defender.

    2008 (108 games): -2.4
    2009 (101 games): +9.2
    2010 (148 games): +19.7
    2011 (135 games): -0.5*

    *2011 is obviously not finished yet

    So who is the real Jay Bruce in the field?
    He's the guy who did all of those things. Just like he's both the guy who destroyed the league in May and stunk in June. In relatively small samples, performance varies. And a year of defense is about the same as 200 PA of hitting. What's his "true fielding talent"? Probably something like the average of those, 5 to 10 runs above average.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #3
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    I still believe that Jay Bruce will someday win a Gold Glove.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Jay has been overrated by some, without a doubt. But it doesn't mean he isn't good.

  6. #5
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    I think those numbers (at least, the last two seasons) have accurately portrayed his defensive performance. I don't think there is any doubt that he was much better in the field last year than he has been this year. Both my eyes, and the numbers tell me that.

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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    probably less opportunities after his 2010 effort. They don't run on him as often so he doesn't show his arm. He hasn't been as well overall, but I'll take him over anyone we can throw out there in LF, but maybe a little overrated, but very solid.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I think those numbers (at least, the last two seasons) have accurately portrayed his defensive performance. I don't think there is any doubt that he was much better in the field last year than he has been this year. Both my eyes, and the numbers tell me that.
    So if you do believe that the huge difference is due to his actual play rather than randomness of the metric, what do you think caused his falling off the proverbial cliff?

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    He's the guy who did all of those things. Just like he's both the guy who destroyed the league in May and stunk in June. In relatively small samples, performance varies. And a year of defense is about the same as 200 PA of hitting. What's his "true fielding talent"? Probably something like the average of those, 5 to 10 runs above average.
    Disclaimer: I am not a fan of UZR, especially when used in certain ways. However, I do think it generally gets us in the vicinity of where we would like to be. Especially when used properly.

    My question is this: We have almost 500 games over 4 seasons to have viewed and assessed Jay's defense and, in those 4 seasons, have seen just one where his UZR fell within that "true talent" band. At what point does his number settle in? Or will it? If performance varies enough to take 2 "wins" away from Jay in one season, shouldn't that be accounted for when throwing WAR around like it is the be all talent evaluation tool? Especially in one season samples?

  10. #9
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    In 4100 defensive innings as a major leaguer, Jay Bruce has posted a UZR/150= 8.2.

    For the purposes of WAR, I'm comfortable with the notion that he's a +8 run plus defender.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    The metric doesn't mean all that much. The guy's a good defender out there with a very good arm. Trying to quantify it/compare him to others just kind of obscures things.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    In 4100 defensive innings as a major leaguer, Jay Bruce has posted a UZR/150= 8.2.

    For the purposes of WAR, I'm comfortable with the notion that he's a +8 run plus defender.
    If he drops a +20 on us next year, how would you view his WAR for 2012? Would you give him credit for that number?

  13. #12
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    If he drops a +20 on us next year, how would you view his WAR for 2012? Would you give him credit for that number?
    Yes. I'm giving him credit for his UZR this year.

    Your premise seems to be that since his UZR has fluctuated, it isn't an accurate estimate of his performance. That premise would be begging the question.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Folks can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the appropriate sample size for UZR 3 full seasons? I seem to remember those in the know saying so....
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  15. #14
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    In 4100 defensive innings as a major leaguer, Jay Bruce has posted a UZR/150= 8.2.

    For the purposes of WAR, I'm comfortable with the notion that he's a +8 run plus defender.
    Agreed. I came up with something like 7-8 runs. He hasn't looked as good out there (according to my WoiP) this year as he had the previous two but he's still good.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  16. #15
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce's Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Folks can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the appropriate sample size for UZR 3 full seasons? I seem to remember those in the know saying so....
    It's "as large as possible" but 3 full seasons is generally regarded as a good assessment.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"


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