Just curious, but hasn't the Verducci rule been more or less debunked as a useful standard? That's not to say a guy should shift from 60 innings to 220, but what's the real source of the 30 per year rule of thumb?
Why not just use some basic biometrics to monitor the guy? If/when he shows that he's weakening, taking longer to recover, etc., or if it's showing in his execution, then shut him down. But it just strikes me as odd that teams would be so reigmented and beholden to a number like that.
I'm all for being cautious with young arms. But I'd have my starters on a long toss program over the winter to maintain arm strength and would have a thorough monitoring system in place to protect my investments.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-09-2011 at 05:16 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
i agree that a strict innings limit may not be needed. however, as you point out a pitcher shouldn't ramp up his innings unreasonably. i suspect that if Chapman has thrown 125 innings max in his career (and that would have been ~2009) that asking him to throw 200+ next year isn't a good idea. maybe they could pencil him in for so many starts then start watching him closely about 75% of the way through the season. if/when he starts to look tired they can shut him down if the team is out of contention or maybe rest him a bit then move him to the pen if the team is in contention.
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There's no magic number. It's not like someone hits that 31st inning and their arm falls off. Dusty kind of touched on that with Leake earlier in the year when he said they were monitoring how he was throwing more than just counting innings.
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Barry On Baseball Also blogging at Banished to the Pen.
Long term, moving chapman into the rotation is the best thing. Unfortunately, the team is in a short term situation with Phillips and Votto and should be doing what is necessary to win now. I'd keep Chapman in the pen as the closer (or top reliever if you will) for 2012 and go get a proven starter or two who are upgrades over Willis/Wood/Volquez/Arroyo/Bailey/Leake. Some one better than all those guys is what this team needs. For all of Chapman's potential, he's just another question mark when it comes to starting and I'd like to see the team stop frittering away its best window by tinkering with guys in roles we have no idea about. Along those lines, I'd deal Alonso since we really don't think he can play anywhere but 1B, in order to acquire the starter we need. Once the rotation is set-up with more certainty, some excess arms can be dealt for a bat.
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I guess I'll toss this in this thread. The Reds pitchers OPS against in high leverage situations, per BBref:
With one of the leagues best defenses, you can take some of the blame away from luck and just call it like we see it here, which will definitely confirm what we watched: Bailey, Volquez, and Masset struggled in bigger spots. Chapman was among the best. It certainly tantalizes me more for him to get a spot in the rotation. Even if he walks his way into trouble, who better to get himself out of it?Code:Rk G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ 1 Jared Burton 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 1.000 250 718 2 Daryl Thompson 1 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 0.00 1.000 1.000 1.500 2.500 1.000 382 590 3 Chad Reineke 1 3 3 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 .667 .667 1.667 2.333 .500 416 530 4 Homer Bailey 18 78 69 30 22 3 0 6 5 14 2.80 .319 .351 .623 .974 .308 166 167 5 Edinson Volquez 16 74 57 27 15 3 1 4 13 13 1.00 .263 .403 .561 .964 .268 127 167 6 Nick Masset 33 99 85 19 31 6 0 2 12 14 1.17 .365 .443 .506 .949 .420 154 165 7 Jordan Smith 6 12 11 3 4 2 0 0 0 2 .364 .333 .545 .879 .400 62 142 8 Mike Leake 23 107 91 34 27 4 1 5 5 13 2.60 .297 .333 .527 .861 .278 138 137 9 Travis Wood 13 59 46 14 15 3 0 0 10 5 0.50 .326 .448 .391 .840 .357 112 138 10 Logan Ondrusek 31 86 68 15 19 1 0 3 13 11 0.85 .279 .398 .426 .824 .291 146 131 11 Jose Arredondo 17 57 45 6 11 2 0 2 11 11 1.00 .244 .393 .422 .815 .281 130 129 12 Sam LeCure 15 48 39 10 10 1 0 2 5 10 2.00 .256 .370 .436 .805 .296 140 125 13 Bronson Arroyo 24 110 104 30 29 3 2 5 4 14 3.50 .279 .309 .490 .799 .279 84 120 14 Bill Bray 31 52 43 11 9 3 0 2 6 12 2.00 .209 .294 .419 .713 .226 141 97 15 Carlos Fisher 3 30 23 3 7 0 0 0 4 4 1.00 .304 .393 .304 .697 .350 100 98 16 Dontrelle Willis 12 77 66 20 18 2 0 1 7 10 1.43 .273 .347 .348 .695 .304 83 96 17 Francisco Cordero 34 121 107 11 26 3 1 3 10 20 2.00 .243 .317 .374 .690 .271 150 93 18 Johnny Cueto 22 147 125 31 34 5 0 2 10 21 2.10 .272 .324 .360 .684 .305 130 92 19 Aroldis Chapman 22 63 52 10 11 2 0 1 9 19 2.11 .212 .339 .308 .646 .313 139 83 20 Matt Maloney 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 -100 -100 21 Jeremy Horst 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 -100 -100 Team Total 139 1231 1040 290 293 45 5 39 125 194 1.55 .282 .359 .447 .807 .306 118 125
2015 Rotation: Under Construction
Looking at that list, two things jump out:
1) If Volquez could throw strikes, he'd be a Cy Young candidate every year. His stuff is amazing.
2) A lot of young Red pitching needs to learn how to pitch in high leverage situations. Leake, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Bailey, and Masset-- all need to buck up, Harry S. Truman- style.
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...k_cin&c_id=cin"We're discussing the possibility of Chapman playing some place to get him extended out to possibly start," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "There are a lot of things in question now."
Good to see the Reds have it all figured out.
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My question is what happens if he's stretched out and then doesn't amaze in ST? To Louisville? To the pen again?
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I'd guess the latter.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
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