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Thread: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

  1. #16
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by CarolinaRedleg View Post
    Aren't those embargoed here?
    Just like Castro's government,they aren't recognized in this country.

    I hope they give Chapman a good chance at starting next year. He's certainly has the potential to be a really good starter.
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  3. #17
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Just curious, but hasn't the Verducci rule been more or less debunked as a useful standard? That's not to say a guy should shift from 60 innings to 220, but what's the real source of the 30 per year rule of thumb?

    Why not just use some basic biometrics to monitor the guy? If/when he shows that he's weakening, taking longer to recover, etc., or if it's showing in his execution, then shut him down. But it just strikes me as odd that teams would be so reigmented and beholden to a number like that.

    I'm all for being cautious with young arms. But I'd have my starters on a long toss program over the winter to maintain arm strength and would have a thorough monitoring system in place to protect my investments.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-09-2011 at 05:16 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #18
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Just curious, but hasn't the Verducci rule been more or less debunked as a useful standard? That's not to say a guy should shift from 60 innings to 220, but what's the real source of the 30 per year rule of thumb?

    Why not just use some basic biometrics to monitor the guy? If/when he shows that he's weakening, taking longer to recover, etc., or if it's showing in his execution, then shut him down. But it just strikes me as odd that teams would be so reigmented and beholden to a number like that.

    I'm all for being cautious with young arms. But I'd have my starters on a long toss program over the winter to maintain arm strength and would have a thorough monitoring system in place to protect my investments.
    i agree that a strict innings limit may not be needed. however, as you point out a pitcher shouldn't ramp up his innings unreasonably. i suspect that if Chapman has thrown 125 innings max in his career (and that would have been ~2009) that asking him to throw 200+ next year isn't a good idea. maybe they could pencil him in for so many starts then start watching him closely about 75% of the way through the season. if/when he starts to look tired they can shut him down if the team is out of contention or maybe rest him a bit then move him to the pen if the team is in contention.
    .

  5. #19
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    There's no magic number. It's not like someone hits that 31st inning and their arm falls off. Dusty kind of touched on that with Leake earlier in the year when he said they were monitoring how he was throwing more than just counting innings.

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  6. #20
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Long term, moving chapman into the rotation is the best thing. Unfortunately, the team is in a short term situation with Phillips and Votto and should be doing what is necessary to win now. I'd keep Chapman in the pen as the closer (or top reliever if you will) for 2012 and go get a proven starter or two who are upgrades over Willis/Wood/Volquez/Arroyo/Bailey/Leake. Some one better than all those guys is what this team needs. For all of Chapman's potential, he's just another question mark when it comes to starting and I'd like to see the team stop frittering away its best window by tinkering with guys in roles we have no idea about. Along those lines, I'd deal Alonso since we really don't think he can play anywhere but 1B, in order to acquire the starter we need. Once the rotation is set-up with more certainty, some excess arms can be dealt for a bat.
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  7. #21
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    I guess I'll toss this in this thread. The Reds pitchers OPS against in high leverage situations, per BBref:

    Code:
                                                                                                                 
    Rk                       G   PA   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR  BB  SO SO/BB    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
    1         Jared Burton   1    1    1   2   1  1  0  0   0         0 1.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 1.000   250   718
    2       Daryl Thompson   1    3    2   2   2  1  0  0   1   0  0.00 1.000 1.000 1.500 2.500 1.000   382   590
    3         Chad Reineke   1    3    3   4   2  0  0  1   0         0  .667  .667 1.667 2.333  .500   416   530
    4         Homer Bailey  18   78   69  30  22  3  0  6   5  14  2.80  .319  .351  .623  .974  .308   166   167
    5      Edinson Volquez  16   74   57  27  15  3  1  4  13  13  1.00  .263  .403  .561  .964  .268   127   167
    6          Nick Masset  33   99   85  19  31  6  0  2  12  14  1.17  .365  .443  .506  .949  .420   154   165
    7         Jordan Smith   6   12   11   3   4  2  0  0   0         2  .364  .333  .545  .879  .400    62   142
    8           Mike Leake  23  107   91  34  27  4  1  5   5  13  2.60  .297  .333  .527  .861  .278   138   137
    9          Travis Wood  13   59   46  14  15  3  0  0  10   5  0.50  .326  .448  .391  .840  .357   112   138
    10      Logan Ondrusek  31   86   68  15  19  1  0  3  13  11  0.85  .279  .398  .426  .824  .291   146   131
    11      Jose Arredondo  17   57   45   6  11  2  0  2  11  11  1.00  .244  .393  .422  .815  .281   130   129
    12          Sam LeCure  15   48   39  10  10  1  0  2   5  10  2.00  .256  .370  .436  .805  .296   140   125
    13      Bronson Arroyo  24  110  104  30  29  3  2  5   4  14  3.50  .279  .309  .490  .799  .279    84   120
    14           Bill Bray  31   52   43  11   9  3  0  2   6  12  2.00  .209  .294  .419  .713  .226   141    97
    15       Carlos Fisher   3   30   23   3   7  0  0  0   4   4  1.00  .304  .393  .304  .697  .350   100    98
    16    Dontrelle Willis  12   77   66  20  18  2  0  1   7  10  1.43  .273  .347  .348  .695  .304    83    96
    17   Francisco Cordero  34  121  107  11  26  3  1  3  10  20  2.00  .243  .317  .374  .690  .271   150    93
    18        Johnny Cueto  22  147  125  31  34  5  0  2  10  21  2.10  .272  .324  .360  .684  .305   130    92
    19     Aroldis Chapman  22   63   52  10  11  2  0  1   9  19  2.11  .212  .339  .308  .646  .313   139    83
    20        Matt Maloney   1    3    2   1   0  0  0  0   0         1  .000  .000  .000  .000  .000  -100  -100
    21        Jeremy Horst   1    1    1   0   0  0  0  0   0         0  .000  .000  .000  .000  .000  -100  -100
                Team Total 139 1231 1040 290 293 45  5 39 125 194  1.55  .282  .359  .447  .807  .306   118   125
    With one of the leagues best defenses, you can take some of the blame away from luck and just call it like we see it here, which will definitely confirm what we watched: Bailey, Volquez, and Masset struggled in bigger spots. Chapman was among the best. It certainly tantalizes me more for him to get a spot in the rotation. Even if he walks his way into trouble, who better to get himself out of it?
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  8. #22
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Looking at that list, two things jump out:

    1) If Volquez could throw strikes, he'd be a Cy Young candidate every year. His stuff is amazing.
    2) A lot of young Red pitching needs to learn how to pitch in high leverage situations. Leake, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Bailey, and Masset-- all need to buck up, Harry S. Truman- style.
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  9. #23
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    "We're discussing the possibility of Chapman playing some place to get him extended out to possibly start," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "There are a lot of things in question now."
    http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...k_cin&c_id=cin

  10. #24
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Good to see the Reds have it all figured out.
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  11. #25
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by Redhook View Post
    Good to see the Reds have it all figured out.
    If fans run their businesses the way they think the Reds should, there must be a lot of millionaires on this board. I'm guessing that in their world, folks have the same struggles to be perfect in their planning and best use of resources, often having to change course based on a multitude of factors.
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  12. #26
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    .

  13. #27
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    My question is what happens if he's stretched out and then doesn't amaze in ST? To Louisville? To the pen again?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #28
    -The Insider-
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    I'd guess the latter.

  15. #29
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  16. #30
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    My question is what happens if he's stretched out and then doesn't amaze in ST? To Louisville? To the pen again?
    I'd hope that they make very little of ST at this stage. They've had him in the system for two full years and should allow his opportunity to play out in the regular season.
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