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Thread: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

  1. #31
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Cueto
    Chapman
    Leake
    Bailey
    Arroyo
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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  3. #32
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Cueto
    Chapman
    Leake
    Bailey
    Arroyo
    That's certainly what I'd go with. I'd consider Chapman further down the list until he shows what he can do there. But yep, those are my 5.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  4. #33
    Moderator Tommyjohn25's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Cueto
    Chapman
    Leake
    Bailey
    Arroyo
    Shields
    Cueto
    Chapman
    Leake
    Bailey


    Please?
    Benzinger backing and calling! And the 1990 world championship series belongs to the Cincinnati Reds!

  5. #34
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by Tommyjohn25 View Post
    Shields
    Cueto
    Chapman
    Leake
    Bailey


    Please?
    That's what it'll take to compete with the Cards and Brewers next year.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

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  6. #35
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by Redhook View Post
    That's what it'll take to compete with the Cards and Brewers next year.
    And if he reverts to the 13-15, 5.18 era and 34 hr allowed that we saw just last year? Then what?

    Banking on James Shields to replicate what he did this year is FOLLY!!! Career era over 4 but people see an era under 3 for this season and start drooling. 11 complete games and 4 shutouts but people ignore that previously he's had 5 complete games and 2 shutouts...in 5 years total. He's a flyball pitcher who's always allowed a fairly high number of dingers...and we want to put him in GABP? Plus overpay for a guy who just had a career year? Plus go with a rotation without a lefty in it...again? (I'd like to see Chappy in there, but I think he starts in AAA for a while)

    Sorry, I'm just not seeing why the lovefest for James Shields.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 10-08-2011 at 09:30 AM.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  7. #36
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    And if he reverts to the 13-15, 5.18 era and 34 hr allowed that we saw just last year? Then what?

    Banking on James Shields to replicate what he did this year is FOLLY!!! Career era over 4 but people see an era under 3 for this season and start drooling. 11 complete games and 4 shutouts but people ignore that previously he's had 5 complete games and 2 shutouts...in 5 years total. He's a flyball pitcher who's always allowed a fairly high number of dingers...and we want to put him in GABP? Plus overpay for a guy who just had a career year? Plus go with a rotation without a lefty in it...again? (I'd like to see Chappy in there, but I think he starts in AAA for a while)

    Sorry, I'm just not seeing why the lovefest for James Shields.
    Saying he's had one good year isn't really correct. Since 2007 Shields has had ERA+ numbers of 117, 124, 105, 75 and 132. He's had one bad year and one year where he was slightly above average. His K to BB ratio has consistently been above 3 to 1 with a high of 5.11 to 1 and an average of 3.64 to 1. I agree that he's not an ace, but he is a pitcher with a track recond, throws a lot of innings and goes deep into games. I agree that he could be a home run guy, but adding a pitcher like Shields is exactly what this team needs. The current members of this rotation are viewed as a positive if they have 3 or 4 good games. The Reds need some guys who have had three or four good seasons.

    The reason many are focusing on Shields is the situation. He'll be affordable in 2012 at $7 Million and while he's under control for 2 more seasons after that, its on consecutive club options so the team could cut bait at any time if he's injured or completely miserable without worrying about any guaranteed money in 2013 or 2014. He plays on a cost conscious, pitching rich team that has three up and coming rookies (one of whom has ace potential) three other very good starters who are in pre-arb years and another solid mid-rotation guy who is first time arb eligible. The Rays have needs that match well with the Reds excesses and Shields seems like the logical guy for them to move given his relative cost to the others they have on hand and needs they have in the line-up. In the Reds rotation, a typical season would make him at at worst the number 2. If he has a poor season, he'd be a decent number four comparable to what we've gotten from Arroyo in his typical season. Mostly, he's much less a question mark than the guys the Reds have on hand and unless some team pulls off a surprise approach seems one of the more likely likely combinations of affordability, limited risk, strong performance and inning reliability that may be obtainable given what the Reds have to oiffer.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-08-2011 at 01:24 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  8. #37
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by Tommyjohn25 View Post
    Shields
    Cueto
    Chapman
    Leake
    Bailey


    Please?
    I get the love for moving Chapman into the rotation and it is probably the best thing for his career, but in 2012 I don't see how it improves the Reds much. In spite of your plea above, Arroyo is going to be in the rotation. That means a move of Chapman into the rotation will either preclude the Reds from obtaining some one more reliable from outside the organization (Shields in your example) or it will bump Bailey out of the rotation. I don't see Chapman as an improvement over Bailey in 2012 or maybe even 2013. Meanwhile, Chapman in the rotation leaves a fairly large hole in the bullpen. If the Reds are going to trade some kids to acquire somebody, I'd rather they acquire a starter with Chapman filling the primary role in the pen than hoping Chapman can be the starter they need and wasting our resources on a reliever to fill his spot.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-08-2011 at 01:25 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #38
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by Redhook View Post
    That's what it'll take to compete with the Cards and Brewers next year.
    Don't forget that both teams have contract issues with their first basemen.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  10. #39
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Saying he's had one good year isn't really correct. Since 2007 Shields has had ERA+ numbers of 117, 124, 105, 75 and 132. He's had one bad year and one year where he was slightly above average. His K to BB ratio has consistently been above 3 to 1 with a high of 5.11 to 1 and an average of 3.64 to 1. I agree that he's not an ace, but he is a pitcher with a track recond, throws a lot of innings and goes deep into games. I agree that he could be a home run guy, but adding a pitcher like Shields is exactly what this team needs. The current members of this rotation are viewed as a positive if they have 3 or 4 good games. The Reds need some guys who have had three or four good seasons.

    The reason many are focusing on Shields is the situation. He'll be affordable in 2012 at $7 Million and while he's under control for 2 more seasons after that, its on consecutive club options so the team could cut bait at any time if he's injured or completely miserable without worrying about any guaranteed money in 2013 or 2014. He plays on a cost conscious, pitching rich team that has three up and coming rookies (one of whom has ace potential) three other very good starters who are in pre-arb years and another solid mid-rotation guy who is first time arb eligible. The Rays have needs that match well with the Reds excesses and Shields seems like the logical guy for them to move given his relative cost to the others they have on hand and needs they have in the line-up. In the Reds rotation, a typical season would make him at at worst the number 2. If he has a poor season, he'd be a decent number four comparable to what we've gotten from Arroyo in his typical season. Mostly, he's much less a question mark than the guys the Reds have on hand and unless some team pulls off a surprise approach seems one of the more likely likely combinations of affordability, limited risk, strong performance and inning reliability that may be obtainable given what the Reds have to oiffer.
    I wasn't saying he's only had one good year. I'm saying it was a career year and that we shouldn't expect THAT kind of production going forward. I also pointed out that he's another righty in an all righty rotation AND that he's got serious flyball and home run tendencies that don't play well in GABP. Those things aren't one year abberations. Simply put, he's not an "ace" but he'll command "ace-like" returns and he's not suited very well for the Reds home park.

    I've got no problems with the Reds going after him...but to overpay for him and expect him to duplicate this year...not so much. People here seem to look at him as a sure-fire ace it seems to me and focus on him instead of opening up the wide angle lens to see other options.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 10-08-2011 at 02:12 PM.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  11. #40
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    My question is what happens if he's stretched out and then doesn't amaze in ST? To Louisville? To the pen again?
    I'm of the opinion that all of the Reds pitchers should be on a much shorter leash next year, including him. One of the biggest mistakes this year was letting the rotation guys take their lumps for too long. The organization managed its pitchers like it was in rebuilding mode - NOT like an organization that had won the division in the previous year and which had everyone coming back. 90+ wins was perfectly attainable this year, and that's all it took to make the playoffs.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  12. #41
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I've got no problems with the Reds going after him...but to overpay for him and expect him to duplicate this year...not so much. People here seem to look at him as a sure-fire ace it seems to me and focus on him instead of opening up the wide angle lens to see other options.
    His xFIP backs up the ace title. Sure it was his best year, but 250 innings is a big enough sample that I'm willing to bet on improvement over random variation. You can never be sure about anyone "duplicating" a season, especially a pitcher, but I'll be pretty disappointed if we enter the season with Leake as our #2 because of the fear that Shields may regress. We saw where conservatism brought us.

  13. #42
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman could be in the 2012 rotation...

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Don't forget that both teams have contract issues with their first basemen.
    True, but even if they both lose those guys, they'll still have pitching. The Cardinals will get huge boost if Wainright comes back and pitches similar to how he has in the past.

    I predict Prince is gone, but Albert finds his way back to St. Louis. If that does happen, I think it's good news for the Reds. No more Prince and Albert is declining, slightly, while taking up a huge chunk of their payroll.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

    www.kylevoska.com - Golfer? Check out my blog for golf tips.


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