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Thread: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    Its pretty clear that the Reds are going to need to pay a substantial price in young talent to add the quality starting pitcher or two that the team desperately needs moving forward. Some combination of the promising young position players arriving on the scene will probably need to be shipped off along with some spare arms and not yet ready kids. Alonso, Francisco, Frazier, Heisey, Stubbs, Sappelt, Valaika, Grandal, Phipps, Soto, Volquez, Wood, Masset, Maloney, Arredondo, Bailey, etc. all hold varying degrees of promise going forward. That promise is why some combination of those names will probably be shipped off for a pitcher or two who can bolster the rotation and maybe the back of the bullpen. The result is that the Reds may need to look for some backfills on the position player front. With Alonso and Francisco both being pretty high on the list of guys who may be in demand in return for the needed starter, it would seem a LH bat who can handle RHP might be something the team needs to be after in the off-season. The major resources probably need to go toward the pitching staff, so the team will probably need to try to address other weaknesses through buying low.

    Here are some potential buy low guys who may round out the position players so that the team can pay the necessary price to add quality with some certainty to the rotation.

    Ian Stewart - LH Hitting 3b who may be available as a buy low guy. From 2008 to 2010 he had OPS numbers of .804, .785 and .781. In 2011 he dropped to a horrid .464 and was sent to AAA. He’ll be arb eligible and maybe a deal for some one like Nick Masset, who also stands to make some arb cash, would make sense for both teams. Stewart will be 27 in 2012 and may be a bounce back candidate. He made $2.29 Million in 2011. Might be a decent partner for Rolen in 2012 and a possible replacement or at least stop gap after Rolen retires. That's something that might be needed if the Reds deal Francisco (and maybe even if Francisco sticks since none of the 3B candidates are a sure thing).

    Luke Scott - Had a bad season in 2011 that ended with shoulder surgery in July. From ‘06 - ‘10 he had OPS numbers of 1.047, .855, .807, .828 and .902. He’s a likely non-tender who may be a cheap free agent LH bat who would allow the team to deal some of the OF kids for an arm or two.

    Kelly Johnson - A free agent after the season and a LH Hitting 2B who is probably a better defender in LF. Had OPS numbers of .831 in ‘07, .795 in ‘08, and .865 in ‘10. OTOH, had a .692 in ‘09 and is at .704 this year. Might be a buy low LH bat who could play LF and possibly stop gap 2B after Phillips leaves after 2012. A cheap 2 year deal might be a good investment.

    Logan Morrison - .811 career OPS (119 OPS+) who was sent down for disciplinary reasons in 2011. The Marlins may be sour on the guy. He’ll play 2012 as a 24 Y/O. He’s affordable payroll-wise. The Reds should make a substantial offer IMO. He'd be the clear LF in 2012 and would provide the 1B fallback if Votto leaves and would allow the team to deal Alonso for an arm without the "what do we do when Votto leaves" question clouding the picture.

    Garrett Jones - Hits RHP to the tune of an .820 OPS this season and .843 for his career. The Pirates are likely to go after a bigger bat for 1B and with Tabata and McCutcheon being main guys in the OF and a couple kids coming, Jones may be in for a drop in PT. The Pirates may not be up for his arb in the off-season. A Volquez for Jones deal may make sense for both teams. The Reds could stick a platoon of Jones and say Frazier in LF hitting 5th, while allowing guys like Alonso, Heisey or Stubbs to be made available in bigger deals for some arms.


    Anyone with any other names for a list like this? I don't have any pitchers on the list because I think the Reds need to pay a high price to add quality. The team already has plenty of question marks and adding more makes little sense to me, but if a buy low picther is out there, feel free to post a name with a blurb explaining why he'd be a buy low and a good idea for the Reds.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-11-2011 at 02:07 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #2
    Member Phhhl's Avatar
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    Re: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    I wonder about Jonathan Broxton. He did not have surgery, a fact that could play into the hands of a smaller market club willing to roll the dice on a small investment-large reward contract. Of course, a team like the Phillies or Yankees could just as easily sign him to an incentive deal and stash him in long relief without breaking a sweat. But as long as we are fantasizing... Maybe Broxton would find a situation where he has a clear path to the closer's job more attractive and accept a modest deal?

    I like Kelly Johnson too. He strikes out about as much as Stubbs, but has more power and positional flexibility, while still being able to steal a base. I was quite surprised Arizona traded him for Aaron Hill, an inferior player in every respect.

    Logan Morrison would be a steal. I don't see it. Demoting him for the reasons they did actually told me they were higher on him than we might have thought.

    I wouldn't trade Volquez for Jones. Jones is still "just a guy".

    The Reds have enough left field candidates. Josh Willingham is no longer needed. But, how nice would he have been hitting behind Votto in the first half of 2011? Who knows where the club would be today with some kind of right handed threat in the middle of the order for the majority of this year? If nobody wants the "Hammer" in spring training, we should be more than happy to offer him a chance to compete for the job. He is a very selective hitter on top of his power potential.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Santo Alcala View Post
    I wonder about Jonathan Broxton. He did not have surgery, a fact that could play into the hands of a smaller market club willing to roll the dice on a small investment-large reward contract. Of course, a team like the Phillies or Yankees could just as easily sign him to an incentive deal and stash him in long relief without breaking a sweat. But as long as we are fantasizing... Maybe Broxton would find a situation where he has a clear path to the closer's job more attractive and accept a modest deal?

    I like Kelly Johnson too. He strikes out about as much as Stubbs, but has more power and positional flexibility, while still being able to steal a base. I was quite surprised Arizona traded him for Aaron Hill, an inferior player in every respect.

    Logan Morrison would be a steal. I don't see it. Demoting him for the reasons they did actually told me they were higher on him than we might have thought.

    I wouldn't trade Volquez for Jones. Jones is still "just a guy".

    The Reds have enough left field candidates. Josh Willingham is no longer needed. But, how nice would he have been hitting behind Votto in the first half of 2011? Who knows where the club would be today with some kind of right handed threat in the middle of the order for the majority of this year? If nobody wants the "Hammer" in spring training, we should be more than happy to offer him a chance to compete for the job. He is a very selective hitter on top of his power potential.
    A couple things.

    The Reds really struggke against RHP. A guy like Jones would address that. They won't get much more for Volquez IMO.

    They may not have all of those LF candidates by the time they deal for a pitcher (or 3). I'm guessing at least two of Stubbs, Heisey, Sappelt and Alonso will be gone by Spring Training. Francisco and/or Frazier may need to go as well.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    BTW, Santo mentions Broxton. He's had elbow issues and hasn't really been good since 2009. The closer market is crowded and he may need to settle pretty cheaply. He'd be a decent flyer to take as long as he doesn't cost too much and the Reds aren't counting on him.

    Willingham has been hovering around .800 OPS in a very pitcher friendly park (OPS+ 118). Unless the Reds are really going to play Alonso out there (I'm still not convinced) I prefer him to any of the in house candidates. I like Sappelt, Stubbs and Heisey only in CF and don't really want more than one of those guys in the line-up (I'd give Sappelt a chance to start the season as the CF in the one or two hole with Heisey as a strong bench player and insurance plan while dealing Stubbs provided I could fill a rotation spot or bring in a power LF in a deal involving Stubbs). Given the Reds need to invest in pitching, they may need to piece together a platoon on the cheap to address LF. Willingham may cost to much in dollars.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    Isn't Masset a huge bounce back candidate?

    If he was with anotheer team, isn't he just the player you'd want to target?

    On another front, I don't believe the Reds will trade Alonso. I expect he's just the player they will stick in LF next year, plus provides insurance in case Votto doesn't re-sign and we need to trade him after the 2012 season or risk losing him for nothing. I do finds it concerning they haven't used him as a starter the last two nights. I would have thought that he'd be used pretty much every night the rest of the season. I wonder if the Reds feel his trade value is already extremely high, and want to protect his stats by limiting his starts?

  7. #6
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Isn't Masset a huge bounce back candidate?

    If he was with anotheer team, isn't he just the player you'd want to target?

    On another front, I don't believe the Reds will trade Alonso. I expect he's just the player they will stick in LF next year, plus provides insurance in case Votto doesn't re-sign and we need to trade him after the 2012 season or risk losing him for nothing. I do finds it concerning they haven't used him as a starter the last two nights. I would have thought that he'd be used pretty much every night the rest of the season. I wonder if the Reds feel his trade value is already extremely high, and want to protect his stats by limiting his starts?
    Masset might be a guy I'd target if another team was to non-tender him and could be had cheaply, but I don't want the Reds to pay the $3 Million plus he'll earn in arbitration.

    As for Alonso, I don't think the Reds are serious about him as a LF. They are reluctant to play him in a big OF like in Colorado and limit his appearances when fly ball guys are on the mound. They seem reluctant to play him on multiple days in a row to limit the damage he can do (and he's done damage in nearly every game out there). The Reds just can't have a plan like that for LF and the middle of the order. Besides, the Reds need serious rotation help. They need one if not two guys who are better than anyone on hand with the possible exception of Cueto (who I think wil suffer a drop off in 2012). I think they are going to have to deal several guys to get that. There are few guys who will be affordable dollarwise who may be available and fit that description and none will be in free agency, so the Reds will need to part with some serious talent to acquire them.

    As for the insurance for Votto issue, I think its overblown. When Votto leaves Neftali Soto should be more than ready and if need be the team will have the $19 Million that they'll be paying Votto in 2013 off the books to go get a replacement. They may not get another Votto (but won't by keeping Alonso either) but should be able to fill the role as well as they could with Alonso and will have the players they get in an Alonso deal to go along with that. Keeping Alonso to have around when Votto leaves is a luxury for a team that is lacking in necessities.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    When Votto leaves Neftali Soto should be more than ready ......
    I think there is serious debate if Soto will ever be a major league 1B.

    His plate patience is in the Fransico range.

  9. #8
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    I'm a little reluctant to roll the dice on a relief pitcher, only because I suspect that Arrondo and Masset will both be back next year.. There's two guys that are already a roll of the dice (more or less).. Big upsides, but not very consistent. You could possibly lump Chapman in that group as well.

    I'm hoping the Reds can score a solid reliever over the winter so that Ondrusek doesn't have to pitch every day.. I guess the closer job is open as well.

    The Reds' pen could be great next year if everything falls in place.. or it could be maddening.. Thus, I'd rather get a steady guy to add to the pen and take a chance somewhere else.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Buy Low Candidates for 2012

    I like all the guys on your list. I like the strategy of trying to deal some of our youth for an arm. doesn't have to be a #1 starter. thats going to be hard to pull off. but if the team could add a #2 starter and Chapman to the rotation then its a lot better than what we have now. i'd like something like...
    #2 guy, Cueto, Leake, Chapman, Bailey, Arroyo. if everyone's healthy then either Bailey or Arroyo can pitch out of the pen. preferrably Arroyo. i know he would be a very expensive long reliever but its better than him getting smoked every 5th day. after his terrible 2011 the team really can't pencil him into the rotation. Alonso and Grandal seem to be the guys who are going to be the main chips in a deal to get a real pitcher. we might also have to deal some of the lesser guys for a bullpen arm depening on who we can sign/afford on the free agent market.

    Jones hits rhp well. he could platoon with a right handed bat & make a cheap platoon in left. I agree with you that he is the odd man out in Pittsburgh. I also like the idea of Morrison if we can get him cheaply. He'd be a good target for LF with Jones being the guy to go after if we can't get Morrison.

    I think the Reds have to do something about 3B. even if Rolen can play in 2012 I wouldn't count on him for too many games. Maybe the team could deal Francisco in a deal for pitching then backfill his spot with Stewart. Hopefully Stewart or Frazier could man 3B if/when Rolen can't play.
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