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Thread: Phillips returning.

  1. #16
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    "No homeboy discount, it's my last contract"

    That implies BP wants many years. Would surprise me to see him with the Reds after the All Star break next year.

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  3. #17
    Go Reds Go! UKFlounder's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Time value of money concepts may come into it as well, at least if the John Allen types are involved.

    "A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow" is the basic theory - if you pay, say $5 million now and $12 million in a few years, that extra $7 million can at least theoretically be saved and earn some interest during that time.

    Maybe that has nothing to do with it at all, but I'll offer it as a thought anyway.

  4. #18
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Quote Originally Posted by UKFlounder View Post
    Time value of money concepts may come into it as well, at least if the John Allen types are involved.

    "A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow" is the basic theory - if you pay, say $5 million now and $12 million in a few years, that extra $7 million can at least theoretically be saved and earn some interest during that time.

    Maybe that has nothing to do with it at all, but I'll offer it as a thought anyway.
    Usually that's accounted for when the contract is redone. You'll usually see some premium to offset the expected depreciation due to inflation and often there will be a bonus on top of that as an incentive to do in the first place.

    I think Phillips could land a pretty big haul in a trade, if only because he's not going to accept arbitration short of a disaster season. But I'm not sure who we'd trade him to: SF? NYM? CWS? DET?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #19
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Me too. I wonder why clubs don't pursue this concept more. Having lower salaries later in contracts would enable much greater roster flexibility.
    Becuase paying a dollar later is cheaper than paying a dollar today.

    Back loading contracts is a way to pay less.

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    That would be an ideal bridge to Hamilton/Torreyes.
    I would be more concerned about bridging to HRod/Gregorius than guys in Low A.... I like the guys from Dayton, but they both have a long way to go in order to be what the guys from Dayton in 2010 have become.

  7. #21
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    I think the Reds should try to sign him. I know a lot rides on how many years he demands, but we can't just keep trading away solid, mature players hoping that we might develop talent in the minors. That is too much like KC or Pittsburgh or several other clubs. Once we have MLB ready talent at 2nd base, then we can look to move BP down the road for the right deal.

    The next two years we should contend, and I think we need BP in the mix. Besides, I like the guy....and I follow him on Twitter....
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  8. #22
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    I want BP to retire a Red.

    Hopefully a long term contract can be reasonable.

  9. #23
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    While I think (hope) they rework his contract and sign him multiple years, I have to laugh at Phillips, or any ballplayer, who thinks it's a "slap in the face" to exercise an option that pays them $12M/year... even if it's only for one year. Give me a break!
    Agents fill these players full of this stuff. "Don't take anything less than market value." IOW's the agents make more money. And players leave a place they like and are comfortable with. Give me one year at $12 million, but I'm not worth it.
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  10. #24
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    I have always been a big Phillips supporter. But I don't think the Reds should be sinking big $$$ into 2B. Especially if Brandon is saying no discount.
    Last edited by lollipopcurve; 09-22-2011 at 09:24 AM.
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  11. #25
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    "No homeboy discount, it's my last contract"

    That implies BP wants many years. Would surprise me to see him with the Reds after the All Star break next year.
    Yeah, the Reds can't really be in the business of "paying people what they're worth" if that means "paying people what the Yankees pay people". We'll see how much he thinks he should get. My upper threshold is 12 million per year for him since you can't frontload the "better money" and 15 million at 35 and, say, injured or slumping would mar his legacy.

    I'll be upset if they can't afford him. Especially with the money they didn't have to give Arroyo for the next 2 years. I like Arroyo, but he crowds the rotation even if he is an insurance policy on their youth.

    Adding Phillips at 12 per, along with Cordero at say 7 per would mean 70 million in 2013 for

    Votto
    Bruce
    Phillips
    Cordero
    Cueto
    Arroyo
    Chapman
    Hanigan

    With Arb 1 for
    Stubbs
    Leake
    Heisey
    Ondrusek

    And Arb 2 for
    Bailey

    And Arb 3 for
    Bray
    Volquez

    Not to mention fringe players that may or may not factor like:
    Janish
    Arredondo
    Burton
    Masset


    Basically, in 2013 the Reds will have to bump payroll roughly 10 million to keep Phillips, or by then they'll have to trade Votto if they can't raise payroll. In that case, there would only be approx. 10-15 million for, say, a TOR pitcher to be or have been added.

    Tough call in this context. Perhaps they don't resign Cordero. Or, perhaps 1 year, 2013, at 85-90 million will be passable due to the fact Arroyo's off the books in 2014 and we're also talking about 2 years in a row in the playoffs.
    2015 Rotation: Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani

  12. #26
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    I'm glad BP is coming back. Heart and soul of the Reds. I think we better succeed next year in the standings if we as fans want the Reds to hang onto him.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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  13. #27
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990 View Post
    I'm glad BP is coming back. Heart and soul of the Reds. I think we better succeed next year in the standings if we as fans want the Reds to hang onto him.
    If the Reds fail to finish .500 this season, they will have had exactly 1 winning season since Phillips became a Red. If Phillips is the heart and soul, that would seem to be an argument for a heart transplant.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #28
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Let him decline on someone elses dime.

  15. #29
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Pick up the option, let him whine or not, then move on, he wants 5 years at least.
    Go Gators!

  16. #30
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Phillips returning.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I would be more concerned about bridging to HRod/Gregorius than guys in Low A.... I like the guys from Dayton, but they both have a long way to go in order to be what the guys from Dayton in 2010 have become.
    Is Valaika a possible stop gap or will his bat not play? Could Frazier do a Jeff Kent and hit enough to make up for a lack of range?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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