Thoughts on the Reds - 2011

[WVRedsFan]

I am a great game thread guy and always have been. It's like a sports bar to me. Fans gathered around discussing the game. A big variety of opinions and arguments. Some people insult and some are diplomatic, but all Reds fans. The shock was that over the last month or so, no one participated, and I guess, I understand why. This had to be the most frustrating season I have ever expereinced.

Let me explain that I am a long-time fan. Went to my first game in 1961 and was raised on the Reds. There have been good times and bad, but regardless, the Reds, especially during he season have always been my passion. This year was different. After last year's emotional NL Central win, it appeared we were on our way. The Phillie beatdown in the playoffs was simply devastating, but there was hope for the future. This team simply took all that away and put us back where we were from 2001-2009. And it hurts. A lot.

We watched the off-season, foolishly thinking that moves would be made to shore up left field and shortstop, and we got Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria. We hoped for a stud pitcher to be our ace and instead, we got Edinson Volquez as the opening day pitcher and ace. He failed miserably. Bronson Arroyo had a uncharatistically bad season and the kids, with the notable excpetion of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake (finally), simply didn't have what it took to win. The offense was putrid, even though they scored a lot of runs, usually in bunches and then going on vacation other times (and I admit a lot of that had to do with the pitching not holding leads). The bullpen was at times brutal.

And so we returned to the lost decade and it was very hard to understand. I have great respect for Walt Jocketty, but he should have known that left field was a problem and Jonny Gomes was not the answer. He should have known that Fred Lewis was not going to help much and that Chris Heisey, despite his late season heriocs with the HR's was a fourth outfielder at best. He should have known that Paul Janish would hit a little bit north of .200, even if his defense was superior. You must score runs to win. The loss of Scott Rolen was notable, but the backup plan was not there.

The season was over by then, but Votto struggled all year, coming off the MVP year. Part of that was Jay Bruce's .250+ year (I know his OBP) that didn't protect him much. Bruce will be a great one some day, but this year, he looked lost at the plate 3 of the 5 months of the season. Other than Votto and the 2/5 of the season Bruce peformed, what else was there. Drew Stubbs struck out (it's still an out) over 200. Brandon Phillips had a career year and had to deal with the organization not negotiating with him. Dysfunctional? Maybe.

My biggest fear is we'll go into 2012 with the same program. Volquez will be our ace (we never learn, especailly with his late-season heriocs, kinda), Janish will be lauded for his defensive work at short, Rolen will play 110 games while Francisco languishes on the bench, Heisey will get the majority of playing time in left while Alonso hits the pine, Stubbs will continue to whiff and Bruce will continue to struggle. It's depressing to me. I'll be watching what happens over the next four months, but I don't expect much. I've done that for too long. While St. Louis added people to help (and even though they lost major contributors), as did Milwaukee, we were satisfied with what we had. The result was a losing season. Just like before.

[kaldaniels]

I am a great game thread guy and always have been. It's like a sports bar to me. Fans gathered around discussing the game. A big variety of opinions and arguments. Some people insult and some are diplomatic, but all Reds fans. The shock was that over the last month or so, no one participated, and I guess, I understand why. This had to be the most frustrating season I have ever expereinced.

Let me explain that I am a long-time fan. Went to my first game in 1961 and was raised on the Reds. There have been good times and bad, but regardless, the Reds, especially during he season have always been my passion. This year was different. After last year's emotional NL Central win, it appeared we were on our way. The Phillie beatdown in the playoffs was simply devastating, but there was hope for the future. This team simply took all that away and put us back where we were from 2001-2009. And it hurts. A lot.

We watched the off-season, foolishly thinking that moves would be made to shore up left field and shortstop, and we got Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria. We hoped for a stud pitcher to be our ace and instead, we got Edinson Volquez as the opening day pitcher and ace. He failed miserably. Bronson Arroyo had a uncharatistically bad season and the kids, with the notable excpetion of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake (finally), simply didn't have what it took to win. The offense was putrid, even though they scored a lot of runs, usually in bunches and then going on vacation other times (and I admit a lot of that had to do with the pitching not holding leads). The bullpen was at times brutal.

And so we returned to the lost decade and it was very hard to understand. I have great respect for Walt Jocketty, but he should have known that left field was a problem and Jonny Gomes was not the answer. He should have known that Fred Lewis was not going to help much and that Chris Heisey, despite his late season heriocs with the HR's was a fourth outfielder at best. He should have known that Paul Janish would hit a little bit north of .200, even if his defense was superior. You must score runs to win. The loss of Scott Rolen was notable, but the backup plan was not there.

The season was over by then, but Votto struggled all year, coming off the MVP year. Part of that was Jay Bruce's .250+ year (I know his OBP) that didn't protect him much. Bruce will be a great one some day, but this year, he looked lost at the plate 3 of the 5 months of the season. Other than Votto and the 2/5 of the season Bruce peformed, what else was there. Drew Stubbs struck out (it's still an out) over 200. Brandon Phillips had a career year and had to deal with the organization not negotiating with him. Dysfunctional? Maybe.

My biggest fear is we'll go into 2012 with the same program. Volquez will be our ace (we never learn, especailly with his late-season heriocs, kinda), Janish will be lauded for his defensive work at short, Rolen will play 110 games while Francisco languishes on the bench, Heisey will get the majority of playing time in left while Alonso hits the pine, Stubbs will continue to whiff and Bruce will continue to struggle. It's depressing to me. I'll be watching what happens over the next four months, but I don't expect much. I've done that for too long. While St. Louis added people to help (and even though they lost major contributors), as did Milwaukee, we were satisfied with what we had. The result was a losing season. Just like before.

You threw a whole lot at the wall there and I can't even begin to dissect it tonight. But hang in there, it was a rough season, but this team is nothing like the teams of the 00's.

But if there is a starting point of disagreement, it is calling the offense putrid.

[WVRedsFan]

You threw a whole lot at the wall there and I can't even begin to dissect it tonight. But hang in there, it was a rough season, but this team is nothing like the teams of the 00's.

But if there is a starting point of disagreement, it is calling the offense putrid.

Thanks, Kal. I'm interested in your thoughts because I respect your opinion, but too many 3-2 and 2-1 losses, and too many extra inning games, tell me one thing. It's either the offense or the pitching or both.

We'll sort this out tomorrow.

[AtomicDumpling]

I am a great game thread guy and always have been. It's like a sports bar to me. Fans gathered around discussing the game. A big variety of opinions and arguments. Some people insult and some are diplomatic, but all Reds fans. The shock was that over the last month or so, no one participated, and I guess, I understand why. This had to be the most frustrating season I have ever expereinced.

Let me explain that I am a long-time fan. Went to my first game in 1961 and was raised on the Reds. There have been good times and bad, but regardless, the Reds, especially during he season have always been my passion. This year was different. After last year's emotional NL Central win, it appeared we were on our way. The Phillie beatdown in the playoffs was simply devastating, but there was hope for the future. This team simply took all that away and put us back where we were from 2001-2009. And it hurts. A lot.

We watched the off-season, foolishly thinking that moves would be made to shore up left field and shortstop, and we got Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria. We hoped for a stud pitcher to be our ace and instead, we got Edinson Volquez as the opening day pitcher and ace. He failed miserably. Bronson Arroyo had a uncharatistically bad season and the kids, with the notable excpetion of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake (finally), simply didn't have what it took to win. The offense was putrid, even though they scored a lot of runs, usually in bunches and then going on vacation other times (and I admit a lot of that had to do with the pitching not holding leads). The bullpen was at times brutal.

And so we returned to the lost decade and it was very hard to understand. I have great respect for Walt Jocketty, but he should have known that left field was a problem and Jonny Gomes was not the answer. He should have known that Fred Lewis was not going to help much and that Chris Heisey, despite his late season heriocs with the HR's was a fourth outfielder at best. He should have known that Paul Janish would hit a little bit north of .200, even if his defense was superior. You must score runs to win. The loss of Scott Rolen was notable, but the backup plan was not there.

The season was over by then, but Votto struggled all year, coming off the MVP year. Part of that was Jay Bruce's .250+ year (I know his OBP) that didn't protect him much. Bruce will be a great one some day, but this year, he looked lost at the plate 3 of the 5 months of the season. Other than Votto and the 2/5 of the season Bruce peformed, what else was there. Drew Stubbs struck out (it's still an out) over 200. Brandon Phillips had a career year and had to deal with the organization not negotiating with him. Dysfunctional? Maybe.

My biggest fear is we'll go into 2012 with the same program. Volquez will be our ace (we never learn, especailly with his late-season heriocs, kinda), Janish will be lauded for his defensive work at short, Rolen will play 110 games while Francisco languishes on the bench, Heisey will get the majority of playing time in left while Alonso hits the pine, Stubbs will continue to whiff and Bruce will continue to struggle. It's depressing to me. I'll be watching what happens over the next four months, but I don't expect much. I've done that for too long. While St. Louis added people to help (and even though they lost major contributors), as did Milwaukee, we were satisfied with what we had. The result was a losing season. Just like before.

Yep you pretty much nailed it on the head. This season was a huge letdown after 2010. We all got our hopes up and were primed for disappointment. We should have seen it coming though. As you mentioned, the Reds had glaring weaknesses at starting pitcher (exposed for the world to see in the playoffs), left field, shortstop and third base. We all knew this at the end of last season -- but Walt Jocketty totally failed to solve any of those major problems. That right there should have told us that the Reds were not serious about taking the next step into becoming a real contender. Instead they chose to sit back and reap the profit generated by increased attendance and enthusiasm based on last year's success after a prolonged 15 year period of abject suckitude. We watched and waited in vain all winter for the Reds to make a splash in the player market while the Cardinals and the Brewers made aggressive and smart moves to bolster their squads. All we got was a couple of geriatric cast-offs who came to the Reds because nobody else wanted them. I am guessing we are in for more of the same this winter after Uncle Walt was given a 3 year extension to reward him for his paralysis.

[AtomicDumpling]

Thanks, Kal. I'm interested in your thoughts because I respect your opinion, but too many 3-2 and 2-1 losses, and too many extra inning games, tell me one thing. It's either the offense or the pitching or both.

We'll sort this out tomorrow.

Its the pitching. The offense is the least of the Reds worries.

[Slyder]

I consider 2011 a failure and a lost opportunity for the franchise as a whole. Most everyone saw the problems this team faced after winning the division and being exposed by Philadelphia, but we did nothing to address ANY of them meanwhile Milwaukee added 2 high caliber pitchers (Greinke and Marcum) and Garza went to the Cubs (granted the Cubs could screw up a 1 car funeral procession). Any of the 3 would have been heads and shoulders above any number of our guys and had/have track records of success which many guys we used don't. We resign Bronson... Even at his best Bronson got by on guile.

I read on here attendance was up 12% this year (what was the final totals?), I would say that was inspite of a lackluster front office (not blaming just Walt but also Dusty and the owners). Dusty continues to seemingly act like one of the guys rather than as a manager at a job. His job is to put guys in a position succeed not make sure everyone is happy. If he wants to do that then he can go coach his son at little league.

Walt needs to Dusty proof the team like he did when he traded Gomes to Washington and moved Lewis to AAA so that Dusty COULDN'T play them over guys who have more potential value when it was clear to everyone we were done for 2011. I also believe the front office needs to do a better job at managing our roster, there is NO excuse for Ramon to still be a Cincinnati Red with Devin Mesoraco being almost ready, especially if the Reds have no intention on offering Arby to Ramon. NO excuse at all, we needed to get whatever we could for him and let Ramon go to a team like SF (or Ari, or insert team needing offense here) where he could help a team in contention try and make the post season. If you're worried about over playing Mesigan then after sept 1 callup Corky (using Ramon's spot) and shut some guys down.

[RedsManRick]

I share your fears, but I am excited to hear from multiple sources that Jocketty himself has said this offseason will be much more eventful than last. They've basically said they're going to try and go out and get an ace. Will it happen? We'll see. But I'm (very) cautiously optimistic.

[The Operator]

It was a frustrating season, probably the most frustrating one yet because unlike the Lost Decade, there were real expectations and genuine reasons to be optimistic. You didn't have to be a standard "rose colored glasses" guy to feel somewhat good coming into 2011... and then 2011 happened.

I think the offense isn't that far from being truly elite. If they could find someone to hit #4 between Votto and Bruce, that would go a long way. Matt Kemp would be perfect, but is very likely a pipe dream.

I think the rotation's quality will come down to a few things:

Will Homer Bailey be able to stay healthy for an entire year? He performed well for extended stretches in both 2010 and 2011 and showed some serious flashes of becoming that ace we know he can be, but two straight years being plagued by shoulder issues is worrisome. Is he another Rich Harden?

Will The Reds *finally* make a move to bring in some kind of upper level starting pitcher to this team? It doesn't have to be a Roy Halladay, but they really do need a guy who can start a playoff game without us having to think "oh boy, let's hope he holds it together." James Shields would be great, if the price is right.

I don't think moving Chapman to the rotation and calling it a day will come even close to getting the rotation where it needs to be. I am in the camp that thinks he needs to be a starter, but I also think he needs to make the transition at AAA and I'm not about to think he's going to immediately become a #1 starter. Maybe by 2013 but even that is pushing things. This whole bullpen experiment has really set his development back if the plan is to ultimately make him a starter.

The bullpen? I don't even know where to begin. But I'll try anyway.

Cordero had a flashy ERA but I hope and pray there's a better alternative out there and he won't be coming back. Nick Masset was just plain awful for long stretches this whole year. I can live with his awful April's if he dominates the rest of the year, but he was pretty bad for about half of this season. And then Chapman also factors into the bullpen discussion depending on whether or not they convert him to a starter. We shall see.

All in all, this team has pieces in place that make me feel better about the future than I ever did during the Lost Decade.

That being said, things have to be done and we cannot have another offseason of Jocketty sitting on his hands. Tough choices have to be made. The great GMs are the ones who can identify which prospects to keep and which ones to sell. Until Adam Wainwright, I can't think of a single pitching prospect that the Atlanta Braves traded during their run that amounted to much - and they made some big trades. That's what it takes to win. You can't just blindly hold onto every single prospect you have out of fear that they might flourish elsewhere.

If Walt can identify who to keep and who to deal for help, 2012 could be a fun year for us just like 2010. We'll see.

[WVRedsFan]

Its the pitching. The offense is the least of the Reds worries.

I agree in part. The bullpen was especially bad down the stretch. Of our starting staff, only Cueto and Leake seemed to have what it took to keep the team in contention. We all know Volquez's story (to channel George Grande). He simply is a No. 5 pitcher, but I fear his successes (?) over his last four or five starts will convince the brain trust that he is the ace we need. Homer is a raw product. If Chapman is the fifth starter (I am assuming that Leake is the other starter) and Willis is let go, it's still not a solid staff. The bullpen is a mess, Masset is a head case, Orendondo shows promise, but Ondresek is a really question mark. Sam LeCure looked good, but he was on and off. Codero needs to move on. As successful has he's been, he's much to expensive.

Lots of changes need to be made, but my worry is that they won't be in the name of $$. Ah, the problems of a small market team. But I still contend, and I do not apologize, that the offense is comprised of too many streak hitters. Regardless, as long as Dusty is manager, this is the team we get. Lots of washed up veterans and wannabees get the playing time over potential. For my money, without free agent signings (which appear to be off the table), I play Francisco 50% of the time at third, anyone at short, Alonso in left and Mes at catcher. and I'd trade pieces for a stud pitcher. But I'm not in charge and never will be.

[reds44]

The Reds aren't far off. A few key acquisitions in the winter and there's no reason to believe they can't contend next year.

We'll see if they actually make those moves, though.

[AtomicDumpling]

I agree in part. The bullpen was especially bad down the stretch. Of our starting staff, only Cueto and Leake seemed to have what it took to keep the team in contention. We all know Volquez's story (to channel George Grande). He simply is a No. 5 pitcher, but I fear his successes (?) over his last four or five starts will convince the brain trust that he is the ace we need. Homer is a raw product. If Chapman is the fifth starter (I am assuming that Leake is the other starter) and Willis is let go, it's still not a solid staff. The bullpen is a mess, Masset is a head case, Orendondo shows promise, but Ondresek is a really question mark. Sam LeCure looked good, but he was on and off. Codero needs to move on. As successful has he's been, he's much to expensive.

Lots of changes need to be made, but my worry is that they won't be in the name of $$. Ah, the problems of a small market team. But I still contend, and I do not apologize, that the offense is comprised of too many streak hitters. Regardless, as long as Dusty is manager, this is the team we get. Lots of washed up veterans and wannabees get the playing time over potential. For my money, without free agent signings (which appear to be off the table), I play Francisco 50% of the time at third, anyone at short, Alonso in left and Mes at catcher. and I'd trade pieces for a stud pitcher. But I'm not in charge and never will be.

You nailed it on the pitching. The only part of your post I would alter is the part about the Reds being a small market team. The Reds are a highly profitable mid-market team with a very solid fanbase, good attendance and plenty of revenue. The Reds' market extends 100-200+ miles beyond the borders of Cincinnati and Hamilton County. I don't think the Reds's market size is much of an excuse for their poor performance. The Reds are not in a super-high revenue team like the Yankees or Red Sox or Mets, but they certainly are nowhere near the financial depths of the Marlins, Rays, and Royals in terms of a revenue disadvantage. The Reds are in the middle of the financial landscape and make a very large profit each season. (Actually some of the small-market teams make larger profits than the big-market teams due to revenue sharing but that is a topic for another thread.)

Since the Reds had such a discouraging season this year it has lowered our expectations for next year. No matter what happens in 2012 we won't be as disappointed as we are right now!

So we got that going for us, which is nice.
.

[Redhook]

Good thread. I agree, 2011 was a disaster and it falls mostly on Walt's lap.

I'm optimistic about next year though, but Walt really needs to wakeup. The Reds need two players: a cleanup hitter and a #1/#2 pitcher. They'll have to trade some good players and spend a little cash to get them, but it is possible. Everything else will fall into place once they get those two spots filled. Unfortunately, I see Walt bringing Cordero back which will only allow one of those 2 spots to be filled.

[nate]

The Reds offense scored the second most runs in the league and tied for 3rd in wOBA.

The Reds pitching allowed the fourth most "earned runs" (if you're into that sort of thing) and was last in FIP. Breaking it down, starters were allowed the fourth most "earned runs" and were last in IP while relievers allowed the fifth fewest "earned runs" and were second worst in FIP.

The Reds defense was rated second best in the league by UZR.

If they're looking for a fix of the club as is, I'd say they should focus on:

1. Pitching
2. Pitching
3. Pitching

As far as the emotional reaction to the season goes, I can't really even compare it to the drudgery and numbness of the "lost decade."

[Homer Bailey]

The Reds offense scored the second most runs in the league and tied for 3rd in wOBA.

The Reds pitching allowed the fourth most "earned runs" (if you're into that sort of thing) and was last in FIP. Breaking it down, starters were allowed the fourth most "earned runs" and were last in IP while relievers allowed the fifth fewest "earned runs" and were second worst in FIP.

The Reds defense was rated second best in the league by UZR.

If they're looking for a fix of the club as is, I'd say they should focus on:

1. Pitching
2. Pitching
3. Pitching

As far as the emotional reaction to the season goes, I can't really even compare it to the drudgery and numbness of the "lost decade."

This can't be emphasized enough. It's not the offense. It's just not. That's not an opinion, it's a fact.

It's the pitching.

Sent from my HTC Incredible using tapatalk

[CySeymour]

I agree, the starting pitching wasn't nearly good enough. The team needs to try and mimick what the Brewers did and cash in some of their young talent for TOR starters. Yeah, I know, easier said then done, but that is what Walt is paid to do.