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Thread: You are the GM... Left Field

  1. #16
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    There is something to be said for choosing the bat over defense.

    If you take the absolute best defensive team in baseball, and compare it to the absolute worst defensive team in baseball, I think you will be surprised to find that the worst team with allow about 80-90 more baserunners over the ENTIRE season than the best team. That means just over one extra baserunner every couple of games.

    I have not done the math on the 2011 season yet, but was extremely surprised when I did the math on the 2000-2010 seasons.

    So, would you accept one extra baserunner every two games in order to have Alonso's bat in the line-up full-time?
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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  3. #17
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Alonso.
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    "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
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  4. #18
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    This is where I make a splash in FA for a legit LF. I like both Willingham and Cuddyer in this hole and both would be that #4/5 hitter in the lineup providing protection for Votto and Bruce.

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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sappelt had 107 at bats this year, in sporadic playing time. In AA/AAA the last two years he had hit a combined .336/.393/.502 with 67 walks and 98 strikeouts in 823 plate appearances. Not sure he has anything left to "prove" in the minors.
    I understand exactly what you are saying and where you are going with this Doug, I really do.

    One of the biggest criticisms of the team Walt assembled in 2011 was that he expected too many kids to take steps forward. That's exactly what I would try and prevent for 2012. I think it's pretty easy to minimize the risk of that by bringing in a decent veteran bat who doesn't break the bank.

    In other words, you send Sappelt back to Louisville not for his development, but for the rounding out of the team. Sappelt goes crazy in Louisville and hits 500 then I'm sure you can find an injury to call him up.

    Now, I may have misread things and perhaps he can make a decent trade of Alonso or even Votto, but if you're going to keep those two guys, then a think a veteran right handed outfielder who can cover some ground is a decent target for this team.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  6. #20
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    I understand exactly what you are saying and where you are going with this Doug, I really do.

    One of the biggest criticisms of the team Walt assembled in 2011 was that he expected too many kids to take steps forward. That's exactly what I would try and prevent for 2012. I think it's pretty easy to minimize the risk of that by bringing in a decent veteran bat who doesn't break the bank.

    In other words, you send Sappelt back to Louisville not for his development, but for the rounding out of the team. Sappelt goes crazy in Louisville and hits 500 then I'm sure you can find an injury to call him up.

    Now, I may have misread things and perhaps he can make a decent trade of Alonso or even Votto, but if you're going to keep those two guys, then a think a veteran right handed outfielder who can cover some ground is a decent target for this team.
    What about Sappelt says that he can't do what this supposed veteran can do? Let's be honest, Walt has even said, the Reds aren't going out and making a splash in free agency, so the vet for left field is likely to be a guy who is average at best.

    Sappelt is absolutely going to be a better defender than anyone you bring in for left field. He is a plus center fielder, much less left fielder.

    As for Walt relying on the kids to step up.... the kids weren't the problem at all with this team in 2011. The problems were Rolen (vet), Janish (vet), Renteria (vet), Gomes (vet), Volquez (vet), Arroyo (vet) and Wood (young guy).

    The Reds are a team who needs to spend wisely, even on smaller contracts because as we have seen, the Reds aren't going to eat even $3M contracts more often than not. So is going out and acquiring a guy who is very likely to reproduce what Sappelt is almost guaranteed to give you really the smart move, when there is almost no upside in it, where as they could be plenty of upside with Sappelt just playing left field.

    Would it truly surprise anyone if Sappelt went out in 2012 and hit .300/.350/.450 with plus defense in left field?

    Would it truly surprise anyone if the Reds brought in a cheap free agent veteran who could do that?

  7. #21
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Jose Bautista. Yeah, y'all know how he gets there.
    Win the Division

  8. #22
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Some factors at play here.

    1. The Reds have to make getting a pitcher priority number 1.
    2. The Reds must have a third middle of the order run producer to complement Votto and Bruce
    3. Only one of Stubbs, Heisey and Sappelt should be in the line-up at any given time when a RH is on the mound. Stubbs should probably only play against LHP and spend the rest of his days as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

    If the team can acquire the arm it needs by signing a free agent (Mark Buerhle anyone?) or dealing some combo of Stubbs, Grandal and Volquez or something along those lines, then the answer is Alonso. Case closed.

    If Alonso (or Votto or Bruce) need to go in the deal for a pitcher, then the answer is not in the organization. The Reds need to go get an OF who can hit in the middle of the order

    If Willingham could be had for less than $9 Million, he's a great choice.

    If a trade is needed, Carlos Quentin should be obtainable as a rental.

    If a starter is obtained and the Reds are intent on sticking Chapman in the 5th rotation spot, dealing Homer Bailey becomes an option and I'd build a package around him for Alex Gordon.

    If not Gordon, Seth Smith is a guy I really like to play against RHP (with Heisey and eventually Sappelt in CF and Bruce in RF). Against LHP, Frazier or maybe Sappelt could play LF and Stubbs could play CF.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #23
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    What about Sappelt says that he can't do what this supposed veteran can do? Let's be honest, Walt has even said, the Reds aren't going out and making a splash in free agency, so the vet for left field is likely to be a guy who is average at best.

    Sappelt is absolutely going to be a better defender than anyone you bring in for left field. He is a plus center fielder, much less left fielder.

    As for Walt relying on the kids to step up.... the kids weren't the problem at all with this team in 2011. The problems were Rolen (vet), Janish (vet), Renteria (vet), Gomes (vet), Volquez (vet), Arroyo (vet) and Wood (young guy).

    The Reds are a team who needs to spend wisely, even on smaller contracts because as we have seen, the Reds aren't going to eat even $3M contracts more often than not. So is going out and acquiring a guy who is very likely to reproduce what Sappelt is almost guaranteed to give you really the smart move, when there is almost no upside in it, where as they could be plenty of upside with Sappelt just playing left field.

    Would it truly surprise anyone if Sappelt went out in 2012 and hit .300/.350/.450 with plus defense in left field?

    Would it truly surprise anyone if the Reds brought in a cheap free agent veteran who could do that?
    It would surprise me if Sappelt could OPS .800 over a full season. He doesn't have much power. He doesn't walk much. I don't see his SLG or his OBP being very high.

    He also doesn't throw very well as far as I can tell.

    Sappelt does make a lot of contact and, without the arm, fields well.

    So, I would be very surprised if Sappelt put up the numbers you suggest.

    If the Reds don't deal, I'd prefer Alonso or Heisey in LF.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-03-2011 at 09:42 PM.

  10. #24
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    If Alonso can be packaged for a pitcher, I'd think about someone else for leftfield. Otherwise, he has to be kept in left so he can be moved to first in case Votto is traded or leaves for free agency. He will be cheap for a few more years, and that is valuable to the organiztion. He is valuable insurance.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  11. #25
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    It would surprise me if Sappelt could OPS .800 over a full season. He doesn't have much power. He doesn't walk much. I don't see his SLG or his OBP being very high.

    He also doesn't throw very well as far as I can tell.

    Sappelt does make a lot of contact and, without the arm, fields well.

    So, I would be very surprised if Sappelt put up the numbers you suggest.

    If the Reds don't deal, I'd prefer Alonso or Heisey in LF.
    I think you are either underestimating Sappelt's power or his ability to hit for an average. He didn't show much power with the Reds and not as much when he came off the DL after his oblique injury. He didn't quite have the same violence in his swing that he did before the injury. He slugged .529 in Louisville (2010 and 2011) before he injured his oblique. After he returned, he slugged just .405 in about 20 more at bats at Louisville. I feel a lot more comfortable about Sappelt carrying a .175 IsoP than a sub .125 IsoP next year.

    The walks aren't much, but that is because he makes a ton of contact. He doesn't miss good pitches that often.

  12. #26
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think you are either underestimating Sappelt's power or his ability to hit for an average. He didn't show much power with the Reds and not as much when he came off the DL after his oblique injury. He didn't quite have the same violence in his swing that he did before the injury.
    So we should expect a different Sappelt next year? You've be raving about the ferocity of Sappelt's swing for two years now, and when he got called up, it looked like he could barely muster a fastball past second base.

  13. #27
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    I like Sappelt for CF. Stubbs is the guy I'd prefer to deal.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #28
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    So we should expect a different Sappelt next year? You've be raving about the ferocity of Sappelt's swing for two years now, and when he got called up, it looked like he could barely muster a fastball past second base.
    As I said, he seemed to be swinging with less violence once he came back from the oblique injury. He is a 35 doubles and 15 HR guy in GABP.

  15. #29
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    Alonso. If it's necessary to trade him for a pitcher (and it had better be a good one!) Willingham's solid.

  16. #30
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    Re: You are the GM... Left Field

    I could be wrong, and I hope I am, but Sappelt reeks of AAAA player to me.

    I vote for Alonso. I see Stubbs being moved and Heisey/Sappelt sharing CF duties, with one of those covering LF at places like Denver where you need speedy guys in the OF.


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