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Thread: Early Look at 40-man decisions

  1. #16
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    How hard were Ravin and Villarreal throwing when you saw them? In 2010, Villarreal pitched at 92-94. Ravin was not as consistent on the gun...88-94, but mostly 90-91.

    I talked to a key Reds exec this season who will go nameless but is near the top of the food chain and asked point blank: Who has the best slider in the org? The answer that came back without hesitation: Pedro Villarreal. I said, "how can you put him above Donnie Joseph, who clearly gets more movement on his slider?" He said Joseph's slider moves so much that guys won't swing at it and it breaks outside the zone. I thought that was interesting. Joseph's slider is not as good because it moves too much.

    Off topic, I will say this: The slider that Donnie Joseph threw in 2010 was devastating. Lefthanded hitters often had no chance. Righthanded hitters were swinging at pitches that were hitting them in the feet. That did not work in Double-A, but I am not ready to give up on him yet. He just needs to command the pitch better.
    Last edited by redsof72; 10-05-2011 at 11:17 AM.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    H-Rod: A lot of mental lapses, forgetting to cover bases on bunt plays, got taken out of games for not hustling...maybe he will grow out of those things but they likely will continue to show up at every level.

    Defensively, 23 errors this season, mostly at second base. Below average range. A second baseman like that needs to hit .300 to justify being in the lineup...and he did at two different levels this season so I am giving him credit.

    Half season at Carolina: .302, 5 HR, 11 E. I need more defense to get excited about this player. Has a chance to be a Keppinger type if he keeps hitting.

  4. #18
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Cam, Didi is not eligible. I asked him myself during the season. And I'm almost certain Henry Rodriguez isn't either.

  5. #19
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Didi signed on 8/6/07, and HRod signed on 3/27/07. I don't know where the cutoff is to be eligible, but there's a decent chance it's between those two dates.

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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Half season at Carolina: .302, 5 HR, 11 E. I need more defense to get excited about this player. Has a chance to be a Keppinger type if he keeps hitting.
    The main attraction for me re: HRod is that he switch hits and can play all over the infield. Plus he runs well. You're talking the perfect profile for a utility infielder.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  7. #21
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Didi signed on 8/6/07, and HRod signed on 3/27/07. I don't know where the cutoff is to be eligible, but there's a decent chance it's between those two dates.
    I thought they were both eligible as well, but I have heard differently.

  8. #22
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Henry's speed is big league average. I can't agree with you that he is a perfect utility guy. If you look at a player like a Nick Punto, for example, he is going to give you good defense at second, short, or third. Henry is going to give you below average defense at second and well below average defense at short. His arm strength at third is going to be well below average. At the big league level, you could play him at short or third in an emergency, but you could not have him on a big league roster as the primary back up at those positions, no more than you could have Todd Frazier as your primary back-up at shortstop.

    If Henry is to help the Reds at the big league level, it would be as a Todd Walker type player...a guy who is going to give up some runs in the field at second base but hopefully hit enough to more than make it back at the plate. He would have to be an offense-generating second baseman that provides enough stick to offset what he gives up on defense. Or maybe he becomes a Lenny Harris type player who is a solid bat off the bench. He could be valuable in that role.

    By comparison, Henry made 23 errors this season and Ronald Torreyes made three in about 60 percent of the games.

  9. #23
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Henry's speed is big league average. I can't agree with you that he is a perfect utility guy. If you look at a player like a Nick Punto, for example, he is going to give you good defense at second, short, or third. Henry is going to give you below average defense at second and well below average defense at short. His arm strength at third is going to be well below average. At the big league level, you could play him at short or third in an emergency, but you could not have him on a big league roster as the primary back up at those positions, no more than you could have Todd Frazier as your primary back-up at shortstop.

    If Henry is to help the Reds at the big league level, it would be as a Todd Walker type player...a guy who is going to give up some runs in the field at second base but hopefully hit enough to more than make it back at the plate. He would have to be an offense-generating second baseman that provides enough stick to offset what he gives up on defense. Or maybe he becomes a Lenny Harris type player who is a solid bat off the bench. He could be valuable in that role.

    By comparison, Henry made 23 errors this season and Ronald Torreyes made three in about 60 percent of the games.
    I was hoping to hear HRod's defense was better. Perhaps he can improve it -- if his hands are OK, there's hope. Sometimes guys get better on defense by working harder at it. We shall see -- I still contend that he profiles as a real good bench player, assuming he would dedicate himself to filling that role well. If his bat continues to come on, yeah, maybe he succeeds Phillips someday -- but like you, I like Torreyes better as a starter.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #24
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    I will advocate for Henry. I think he's a good player. Not many people are a fan of him, but I think he'll be a good big leaguer. I don't know if he'll be a starter, but he will be there.

  11. #25
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    How hard were Ravin and Villarreal throwing when you saw them? In 2010, Villarreal pitched at 92-94. Ravin was not as consistent on the gun...88-94, but mostly 90-91.
    I saw both guys in August. Ravin was consistently 94-95 on a scouts gun and topped out at 97. Villarreal was in the 91-94 range when I saw him.

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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Henry has the confidence and swagger that you need (though it will rub some the wrong way). I think he is one of the better pure hitters in the system, but put it this way: with the way he has hit the last two years, the fact that he is not higher on some of the prospect lists tells you something maybe is not quite up to speed.

    No question Henry gets to the big leagues. I am not saying he can't be a starter at second but it will have to be as an offense-generating second baseman because he is going to let some runs in. There are some big league managers who would dismiss him right away because they want more range at second base but if he hits enough, he can overcome that.

  13. #27
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    Wow. That is great for Ravin. Surprised he did not pitch better at Carolina throwing like that. He has to keep improving his secondary stuff.

  14. #28
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    If I have my pick of 15 from the list above, I'd take only 10-12 tops. Here are the ones I want:
    SP Edinson Volquez (I forgot to mention him in my previous posts)
    RP Jose Arredondo
    RP Jeremy Horst
    RP Jordan Smith
    IF Chris Valaika
    3B Juan Francisco - give him a chance in spring training, and cut bait only if necessary
    SP Pedro Villarreal
    SP Kyle Lotzkar
    RP Travis Webb - only if he does well in winter ball
    2B Henry Rodriguez
    OF Denis Phipps - I'm not completely sold on him, but he'd be nice to have around in the event of injury to Heisey and/or Sappelt
    UT Cody Puckett - only if he does well in winter ball

    Outright Kris Negron. Players like him are basically a dime a dozen on the waiver wire.
    Blaine Howell hasn't pitched above the Midwest League, so I'm willing to leave him unprotected this year and bank on him going through too many growing pains to stay on a 25-man roster.
    I really wish Matt Maloney had another option year left, but I think it's time to trade him for whatever you can get. He's the type of guy that could end up being a middle-of-the-rotation starter in Safeco Field or Petco Park, but at Great American Bandstand, he's just not a fit.
    People forget that Jerry Gil is out of options. I don't see much point in adding him to the 40-man roster right now since he'd probably get DFAed anyway.
    The Reds have given Daryl Thompson pretty much every chance possible, but I think he just doesn't have what it takes to be consistently successful in MLB.
    Scott Carroll might be able to help you in the pen, but I'm okay with letting another team trying that out first.
    I still haven't seen Clay Shunick pitch. Something tells me that the Reds might see something in him, but until he has success against more advanced hitting, I don't see much need to add him to the 40-man roster.
    I like Carlos Fisher's stuff out of the pen, but I just haven't seen enough command to think that I could count on him to be effective the whole year. Trade him for a ptbnl.

    That would leave 3-5 spots open for rule five selections and free agents. Given the Reds' budget, I'd think that would be more than enough. Next year's decisions will probably be tougher to make because they'll need roster spots for Brad Boxberger, Dan Corcino, J.C. Sulbaran, Nick Christiani, Donnie Joseph, Didi Gregorius, and possibly even Juan Duran, Mark Serrano, or anyone who's possibly ready for the 25-man roster before necessary (e.g. Brodie Greene).

  15. #29
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    I think there are five to secen spots on the forty-man that can be cleared right away. I'd expect there to be at least a couple of multi-olayer deals where the rs send 2 or three players in return for 1 or 2, freeing spots also. I don't know if this will happen in time to make a difference before the Rule 5 draft though. I'd like to see them keep Campbell and Reinhardt (if eligible) for another year at least.

  16. #30
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    Re: Early Look at 40-man decisions

    This has been posted in this thread, but Ramon. Willis, Cordero and Renteria are automatic subtracts. Cozart comes off the 60 day DL but they started out with 39, so that leaves them at 36. Last year I was Negron's biggest supporter, but he washed out. He goes. Jared Burton should be non-tendered so may as well move him off the roster now. Jordan Smith and Daryl Thompson aren't god enough. That leaves us at 32.

    1. I'd add Phipps because he had a big year and is potential depth at AAA.
    2. I'd add H-Rod if need be.
    3. I'd add Clayton Tanner. The team needs arms who can give some innings in a pinch. He's a lefty and is still young.
    4. If Janish ends up off the roster at some point, the team will need a defensive minded SS in AAA. I Add Miguel Rojas to keep him from walking as a FA (I doubt he'd get picked.)
    5. I'd add Webb since he's a lefty who looked promising in the pen. If he tanks in the AFL, I might change my mind here.
    6. I'd add Soto because he can mash.

    That's 38 spots (37 if H-Rod doesn't need to be added). I'd leave some open for the Reds eventual pursuit of CC Sabathia, Albert Pujols (for LF) and Jonathon Papelbon.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-05-2011 at 09:31 PM.
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