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Thread: You are the GM... Third Base

  1. #1
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    You are the GM... Third Base

    With Rolen injured essentially the entire year, third base was a bit of a black hole. Cairo and Rolen were awful offensively. Frazier posted a .763 OPS in 86 AB's, Francisco .814 in 82 AB's. both hit fairly well in the minors, so an OPS north of .800 isn't a stretch for either player.

    So, how do you as GM handle 3B? You can fill the position from within, sign a FA to be or go after a player rumored to be available.

    This is a position i feel can be filled in house. Rolen can't really be traded, but I'm not counting on his health. Fortunately there are 2 guys that are as major league ready as the Reds can make them. And I can have them both on my 25 man roster. Frazier fills the supersub role, all IF positions and LF. Francisco backs up 3B, 1B and LF. I put Sappelt in AAA.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    I definitely keep Francisco as 1a. Frazier can fill Cairo's role if Miguel doesn't make the 25 man.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    Rolen underwent surgery and should be in better health this year -- as in 2010 plus a few years of aging.

    I prefer Frazier to Fransisco, because he's right handed, because Fransisco refuses to take a walk and because his defense seems steadier. I'm not sure that either he or Fransisco is an ideal long-term solution however. The next guy in the pipeline worth talking about is David Vidal but he's 3+ years off.

    For 2012, I'd have Frazier as my primary backup and get him at least 2 starts a week. With Fransisco I'd be moving him to a team that believes his bat will play -- perhaps for a high leverage reliever.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    because Fransisco refuses to take a walk and because his defense seems steadier.
    Based on what the two showed in Cincy this summer, Francisco is clearly the better defender.

    For 2012, I'd have Frazier as my primary backup and get him at least 2 starts a week. With Fransisco I'd be moving him to a team that believes his bat will play -- perhaps for a high leverage reliever.
    Leaving the team with who for 2013? Frazier? I don't see it. He's been trained as a utility player, and that looks like it was a good decision, IMO. The glove and bat are both mediocre.

    I like the upside of Francisco quite a bit. Give the kid time to learn at the major league level. Unless you can package him for a long-term answer at 3rd, dealing him leaves the team with a hole at 3B, IMO, and that can be a very hard spot to fill. Now, maybe Henry Rodriguez can be the guy, but we're a year away from having a solid read on HRod....
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    This one's easy for me. Francisco. His defense this year (in a short time in Cincinnati) was surprisingly good, and his pitch selection didn't seem horrible. Yeah, he overswings, especially with two strikes, but who doesn't these days? The clincher is that he's definitely a power, middle-of-the-order guy who can actually be an asset in the lineup on the days he plays. He always has and will continue, in my opinion, to drive in runs. His presence will enable them to spot Rolen. I wouldn't plan on Rolen for more than 80-100 games.

    The only downside is using up the roster spot. If Francisco sticks (and doesn't play any LF), and Janish is kept as the SS backup, there's no room for either Cairo or Frazier (provided they keep 5 OF and 12 P's).

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    Rolen, Francisco, Frazier and Cairo should all be on the 25 man Roster. Rolen is the de facto starter, but I'd consider 90 Games with a .725 OPS to be a decent expectation. Francisco should be a guy who plays a couple times each week against hopefully hand picked opposition that he could mash. Frazier plays all over as the 25th man seeing time at all positions except for CF, C and P. As long as Cozart is healthy, Frazier would be my back-up at SS, though he would not become the starter if Cozart becomes unavailable. Cairo is primarily a PH, with occasional starts at 3B and 2B.

    I don't do anything about acquiring a 3B for 2012. I'd try to change the guard during the season while Rolen is still around and Francisco and Frazier show what they can do. If the team feels they aren't the answer going into 2013, then the off-season after 2012 is when it should be addressed. The team can't put more money or resources into this spot IMO. Other priorities, namely a pitcher and a middle of the order bat, dictate that the team should use its in-house organizational depth here.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Rolen, Francisco, Frazier and Cairo should all be on the 25 man Roster. Rolen is the de facto starter, but I'd consider 90 Games with a .725 OPS to be a decent expectation. Francisco should be a guy who plays a couple times each week against hopefully hand picked opposition that he could mash. Frazier plays all over as the 25th man seeing time at all positions except for CF, C and P. As long as Cozart is healthy, Frazier would be my back-up at SS, though he would not become the starter if Cozart becomes unavailable. Cairo is primarily a PH, with occasional starts at 3B and 2B.

    I don't do anything about acquiring a 3B for 2012. I'd try to change the guard during the season while Rolen is still around and Francisco and Frazier show what they can do. If the team feels they aren't the answer going into 2013, then the off-season after 2012 is when it should be addressed. The team can't put more money or resources into this spot IMO. Other priorities, namely a pitcher and a middle of the order bat, dictate that the team should use its in-house organizational depth here.
    Janish can be in AAA if Cozart gets hurt. i really like the idea of Frazier being the backup SS. i think its unclear who will emerge as the better player between Frazier and Francisco. its also unclear if either of them will be washouts or everyday major league players. i'd like to keep both, give them some playing time & see how it shakes out.

    bench is Hanigan, Frazier, Francisco, Cairo & the 4th outfielder
    .

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    In a world where I can do anything I want and money's no object, I'd love to see the Reds pick up Aramis Ramirez and let Rolen go. However, if I'm going to sign a free agent, the only reasonable one who would put up decent production is Wilson Betemit.

    Realistically, I thing some mixture of Rolen/Fransisco/Frazier is going to man 3rd next season. And I can live with that for one year. Long term I don't think any of those players are a solution.

    Actually, if you want a long-term solution at 3b, I don't see why Phillips can't move there as he gets older. His athletic body translates well, and if they can get a replacement to play 2b solidly (Hamilton? Torreys?) then that move makes sense.
    Last edited by Dan; 10-04-2011 at 09:10 PM.
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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    I think we get the best production out of Rolen if he is healthy, for which I pray. I think he might just be able to do it for one more year. Francisco behind him. Frazier has yet to convince me. I could see him starting the year at AAA.

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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Cairo and Rolen were awful offensively.
    Cairo had a .742 OPS, which is above average in the majors, and even more above average for a 3B.

    Just sayin'.

    I certainly don't want him starting though.

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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    I run Rolen out there on a short leash. After that the job goes to Francisco.

    We all love the results from Cairo, but he's almost exactly the same roster slot that Frazier is. Seems like a waste of cash.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Cairo had a .742 OPS, which is above average in the majors, and even more above average for a 3B.

    Just sayin'.

    I certainly don't want him starting though.
    Cairo as a 3B this year

    .254 .323 .370 .694

    awful.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Member chicoruiz's Avatar
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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    Cairo as a 3B this year

    .254 .323 .370 .694

    Yeah but it's not like he suddenly can't hit as well if he's playing 3B. The overall numbers are a larger sample size, and more truly reflective of his ability.

    I think an out-of-house option here would be a waste of money. I'd be fine with a healthy Rolen, or I'd be fine with a Francisco-Cairo platoon. What I DON'T want is a wounded but gutsy Rolen being penciled in the lineup just because he's Scott Rolen. We just saw how that worked out.
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Cairo as a 3B this year

    .254 .323 .370 .694

    awful.
    But still likley above average foor third baseman this year.

    I think even Rolen had an above average OPS for thirdbaseman, which was a black hole in the majors this year.

    But as was said, I'm not sure why you would prefer the smaller sample size comparison.

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    Re: You are the GM... Third Base

    The Reds ranked above the middle of the pack at 3B production in WAR and wOBA, IIRC.

    I'd go with Rolen and Francisco as a platoon unless I could find something else. (And I'd look.) For now, it's not as big of a problem as other items. Fix the starting pitching and the relief pitching, then go to work on the lineup.
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