Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

[RedRedhawk]

Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching. Circino has the most value in the system after Mes. He is my number 2.

[reds1869]

I went with Grandal, but it was honestly a toss up with Yonder. I love Alonso's bat but I believe Grandal has a higher ceiling at a position where you can never have enough depth.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

When I think of top prospects, I think of who has the most trade value.

Cozart is solid and I know he fits under the definition of "prospect", but I don't see him having more trade value than Alonso, Grandal, Hamilton, Corncino, Stephenson, etc.

[dougdirt]

When I think of top prospects, I think of who has the most trade value.

Cozart is solid and I know he fits under the definition of "prospect", but I don't see him having more trade value than Alonso, Grandal, Hamilton, Corncino, Stephenson, etc.

While I don't think of prospects like that, I am with you in that I don't see Cozart as being ahead of those guys... well, perhaps Hamilton. They are really close.

[redsfandan]

While everyone has their own way of valuing prospects, Cozart is the only one of those guys that should be able to help the 2012 Reds both offensively and defensively. When's the last time the Reds had a decent shortstop that wasn't an offensive liability? It's been awhile. And while some of those guys have a higher ceiling, some come with bigger "flaws" and some are far enough from the majors that I don't think we can know for sure that everything will go right with them just yet. Cozart has to get healthy. So, maybe until he's 100% he shouldn't be counted on for anything just yet. But, I haven't heard anywhere that we have to worry about that. Obviously, upside matters and trade value is notable as well but you can't always count on that stuff. Expected floor and the likelihood of helping the big league club matter alot too.

[dougdirt]

While everyone has their own way of valuing prospects, Cozart is the only one of those guys that should be able to help the 2012 Reds both offensively and defensively. When's the last time the Reds had a decent shortstop that wasn't an offensive liability? It's been awhile. And while some of those guys have a higher ceiling, some come with bigger "flaws" and some are far enough from the majors that I don't think we can know for sure that everything will go right with them just yet. Cozart has to get healthy. So, maybe until he's 100% he shouldn't be counted on for anything just yet. But, I haven't heard anywhere that we have to worry about that. Obviously, upside matters and trade value is notable as well but you can't always count on that stuff. Expected floor and the likelihood of helping the big league club matter alot too.

I think Dave Sappelt certainly fits the "should be able to help the Reds both offensively and defensively" mold. But, why does one have to help on both sides of the ball? Isn't it the totality that counts?

[redsfandan]

I think Dave Sappelt certainly fits the "should be able to help the Reds both offensively and defensively" mold.

True but Cozart should be a bigger upgrade than Sappelt don't ya think?

But, why does one have to help on both sides of the ball? Isn't it the totality that counts?

Because sometimes the player has defensive limitations (like Alonso) that drag down his overall value.

[dougdirt]

True but Cozart should be a bigger upgrade than Sappelt don't ya think?

Upgrade doesn't matter because that includes what we had last year at the big league level, not the actual players we are talking about. If I were playing shortstop last year it shouldn't mean that another shortstop should be valued higher, because their ceiling is their ceiling and it is going to make them worth X, not X-whatever Doug was worth.

Because sometimes the player has defensive limitations (like Alonso) that drag down his overall value.

Sure, but you implied that positive offensive value + positive defensive value is going to be more valuable than positive one only one side and that isn't always true.

[redsfandan]

Upgrade doesn't matter because that includes what we had last year at the big league level, not the actual players we are talking about. If I were playing shortstop last year it shouldn't mean that another shortstop should be valued higher, because their ceiling is their ceiling and it is going to make them worth X, not X-whatever Doug was worth.

Ok, you can disregard the upgrade if you'd like (I wouldn't). There's position as well. Cozart can be a starting shortstop that's a little above average. How likely is it that Sappelt will be an above average centerfielder (offensively and defensively) instead of a good backup?

Sure, but you implied that positive offensive value + positive defensive value is going to be more valuable than positive one only one side and that isn't always true.

Again, going back to Alonso, how much offense does he have to produce to offset the bad defense? Sure, there are exceptions. If you'd rather take Alonso that's up to you. I wouldn't.

[dougdirt]

Ok, you can disregard the upgrade if you'd like (I wouldn't). There's position as well. Cozart can be a starting shortstop that's a little above average. How likely is it that Sappelt will be an above average centerfielder (offensively and defensively) instead of a good backup?

I think that Cozart and Sappelt are nearly hand in hand in terms of value. Sappelt has a better chance to be an above average hitter for his position IMO (assuming that position in center). Defensively, I think its a wash. Cozart has the better overall defensive game, but Sappelt has great range in center. His arm brings it back a little bit, but an arm in the outfield really only comes into play so often when compared to the amount of outs you are recording on fly balls/line drives.

Again, going back to Alonso, how much offense does he have to produce to offset the bad defense? Sure, there are exceptions. If you'd rather take Alonso that's up to you. I wouldn't.

Well, I think that the first thing is, are you judging him as a left fielder or a first baseman? I think that just about every scout is going to be evaluating his value as a first baseman and I think that we should too. His value as a prospect shouldn't be tied to the fact that the Reds might play him in left field for 1000 at bats before moving him to first base. So at that point, I would say that his bad defense goes away because he is solid average defensively at first base.

[redsfandan]

I think that Cozart and Sappelt are nearly hand in hand in terms of value. Sappelt has a better chance to be an above average hitter for his position IMO (assuming that position in center). Defensively, I think its a wash. Cozart has the better overall defensive game, but Sappelt has great range in center. His arm brings it back a little bit, but an arm in the outfield really only comes into play so often when compared to the amount of outs you are recording on fly balls/line drives.

That's kinda an important assumption though. This is a ranking of the Reds top prospects. Not mlb prospects or even NL Central prospects. For the Reds, one will likely be a starter at a very important position while the other isn't. Now I know you'll say that doesn't matter and I understand that to you it doesn't. To me it does.

Well, I think that the first thing is, are you judging him as a left fielder or a first baseman? I think that just about every scout is going to be evaluating his value as a first baseman and I think that we should too. His value as a prospect shouldn't be tied to the fact that the Reds might play him in left field for 1000 at bats before moving him to first base. So at that point, I would say that his bad defense goes away because he is solid average defensively at first base.

So, his bad defense just magically goes away now. This is something we probably won't agree on. That the Reds want to turn him into Adam Dunn doesn't matter to you but it does to me. He's a REDS prospect and his value AS A RED will very likely (barring a trade) be as a left fielder.

[mth123]

I wouldn't sell Sappelt short. He's in the top 7 as well and after Mes, the top 7 are pretty close IMO. I could see the argument for just about any order from 2 through 7. After that there is a gap and then another clear group of 6 or so that are close. Then there is a big gap IMO.

[dougdirt]

That's kinda an important assumption though. This is a ranking of the Reds top prospects. Not mlb prospects or even NL Central prospects. For the Reds, one will likely be a starter at a very important position while the other isn't. Now I know you'll say that doesn't matter and I understand that to you it doesn't. To me it does.

A prospect is a prospect is a prospect is a prospect. His value shouldn't be determined at all by the team that he plays for. He either is a player of X value or he isn't. Ranking a prospect should be based on the value that the player is going to provide over his career. No team is going to truly change that value much unless they take a starter and make him a closer or something like that and he never really gets back to his shot at starting, but 95% of the time, that doesn't happen.

So, his bad defense just magically goes away now. This is something we probably won't agree on. That the Reds want to turn him into Adam Dunn doesn't matter to you but it does to me. He's a REDS prospect and his value AS A RED will very likely (barring a trade) be as a left fielder.

If Alonso stays a Red for the next six seasons (before reaching free agency), I would be willing to wager a whole bunch of money that he spends at least 3 times as long at first base as he does anywhere else on the field. And no, the fact that he is a Red doesn't mean his value is different than if he were a Royal or Rockie or Ray. It may mean for a season or two his value is lesser because the Reds are going to play him out of position, but it doesn't change how good he actually is. Prospects are evaluated in a vacuum. They are evaluated that way by scouts and every prospect evaluator out there (BA, BP, PP, Sickels). The reason is because things can change as quick as a phone call. Yonder Alonso is a first baseman and should be evaluated as one because no one really thinks his long term future is anywhere else. Essentially, you are saying he isn't as valuable because of someone else (Joey Votto). That isn't how the prospecting thing works.

[redsfandan]

A prospect is a prospect is a prospect is a prospect. His value shouldn't be determined at all by the team that he plays for. He either is a player of X value or he isn't. Ranking a prospect should be based on the value that the player is going to provide over his career. No team is going to truly change that value much unless they take a starter and make him a closer or something like that and he never really gets back to his shot at starting, but 95% of the time, that doesn't happen.


If Alonso stays a Red for the next six seasons (before reaching free agency), I would be willing to wager a whole bunch of money that he spends at least 3 times as long at first base as he does anywhere else on the field. And no, the fact that he is a Red doesn't mean his value is different than if he were a Royal or Rockie or Ray. It may mean for a season or two his value is lesser because the Reds are going to play him out of position, but it doesn't change how good he actually is. Prospects are evaluated in a vacuum. They are evaluated that way by scouts and every prospect evaluator out there (BA, BP, PP, Sickels). The reason is because things can change as quick as a phone call. Yonder Alonso is a first baseman and should be evaluated as one because no one really thinks his long term future is anywhere else. Essentially, you are saying he isn't as valuable because of someone else (Joey Votto). That isn't how the prospecting thing works.

Like I said, I knew this would be something we'd disagree on. I don't want to drag this out needlessly. To sum up, I'm viewing Alonso based on what position he's expected to play. It's as simple as that. That it might be for only a season doesn't matter to me. I'm thinking about what is known. I don't know that there'll be a trade or anything like that. I know that right now he's expected to compete to be the left fielder. So, that's what I'm basing my opinion of him on. I know you'll say that's wrong, Doug. Agree to disagree I guess.

[Scrap Irony]

I picked Grandal, as Alonso's likely production is lesser now that, IMO, he's likely to play at least a couple seasons in LF. Since he, Grandal, Hamilton, and Torreyes are all really close on my list, this may knock Alonso a few spots.