Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

[dougdirt]

If you extrapolate his second half numbers this season in Dayton to the major league level, his offensive WAR would be more than a point over your lowball guess.

Sure, if you don't account for crappy low A defense or his high BABIP. Billy Hamilton, as a LHH, hit .339 on ground balls FIELDED by the shortstop or third baseman this year. Dude is fast. But that is never going to last. He hit .294 on balls fielded by the pitcher. Never going to last. He hit .429 on balls fielded by the catcher. Never going to last.

So you can't just extrapolate his second half Low A numbers to the MLB level, because they were achieved in a way that simply isn't going to happen at the MLB level.

[Scrap Irony]

Sure, if you don't account for crappy low A defense or his high BABIP. Billy Hamilton, as a LHH, hit .339 on ground balls FIELDED by the shortstop or third baseman this year. Dude is fast. But that is never going to last. He hit .294 on balls fielded by the pitcher. Never going to last. He hit .429 on balls fielded by the catcher. Never going to last.

So you can't just extrapolate his second half Low A numbers to the MLB level, because they were achieved in a way that simply isn't going to happen at the MLB level.

His BaBIP will be close, as his speed is that good, doug. It's more than good. It's game-changing.

And his second half improvement wasn't just BaBIP related; he showed a MASSIVE improvement.

And it's not like I'm saying he's going to suddenly go all mid-90's Barry Larkin. He's likely Denard Span-- a high obp, low slugging guy who will steal a ton of bases while playing a premium position.

The difference is that Hamilton has a chance at stealing 100+ bases and playing Gold Glove defense at SS.

That'll round into an 8.0 WAR.

[dougdirt]

His BaBIP will be close, as his speed is that good, doug. It's more than good. It's game-changing.

And his second half improvement wasn't just BaBIP related; he showed a MASSIVE improvement.

And it's not like I'm saying he's going to suddenly go all mid-90's Barry Larkin. He's likely Denard Span-- a high obp, low slugging guy who will steal a ton of bases while playing a premium position.

The difference is that Hamilton has a chance at stealing 100+ bases and playing Gold Glove defense at SS.

That'll round into an 8.0 WAR.

HE also has a chance of not hitting .225 in AA.

And no, his second half wasn't just BABIP related, but his BABIP certainly carried a lot of weight on his entire season.

And while his speed is incredible, he isn't a guy who is 2-3 steps faster than anyone in baseball. And no one in baseball could come close to his average on balls on the infield. Not Ichiro at any point in his career (who was probably just as fast on most infield balls because he is getting a head start because of his swing earlier in his career). Not Michael Bourn. I haven't been able to find anyone who was within 30 points (Emilio Bonafacio is the closest).

Here is why I feel his infield hits will dry up some. As a right hander, he hit .133 on balls fielded on the infield. As a lefty, he was 90 points higher than that. He is only .1 of a second faster from the left side than the right side in terms of his time from contact to first base. The main difference in those two averages came from balls to the shortstop and third base side of the infield. When he gets to the Majors, the fielders will be better and have stronger and more accurate arms. So as a lefty, he is going to start losing those singles to shortstop and third base as a left hander.

[Scrap Irony]

HE also has a chance of not hitting .225 in AA.

Absolutely. Which is why I didn't vote Hamilton as the first or second-ranked prospect. His ceiling is, IMO, the highest of any Red prospect, but his floor is low as well. He'll have to put together an entire season as good as his second half before I do that.

And no, his second half wasn't just BABIP related, but his BABIP certainly carried a lot of weight on his entire season.

He's a speed guy. You can expect his BaBIP to be high.

And while his speed is incredible, he isn't a guy who is 2-3 steps faster than anyone in baseball. And no one in baseball could come close to his average on balls on the infield. Not Ichiro at any point in his career (who was probably just as fast on most infield balls because he is getting a head start because of his swing earlier in his career). Not Michael Bourn. I haven't been able to find anyone who was within 30 points (Emilio Bonafacio is the closest).

And, as he ages, he'll also get better with the bat, fill out some, and hit the ball with more authority. It'll even out a bit in the wash. But Hamilton's total package is talented enough to think Hamilton a star.

Here is why I feel his infield hits will dry up some. As a right hander, he hit .133 on balls fielded on the infield. As a lefty, he was 90 points higher than that. He is only .1 of a second faster from the left side than the right side in terms of his time from contact to first base. The main difference in those two averages came from balls to the shortstop and third base side of the infield. When he gets to the Majors, the fielders will be better and have stronger and more accurate arms. So as a lefty, he is going to start losing those singles to shortstop and third base as a left hander.

I get that. It even makes sense. But I'm guessing he'll learn to bunt better, he'll also get stronger, and he'll still have that incredible speed to beat out balls that aren't hit right at an infielder.

His ceiling is star level.

His floor is as a MWL All Star.

It'll be interesting to see where he lands.

[dougdirt]

He's a speed guy. You can expect his BaBIP to be high.

I don't know that is always true. Just a little sample looking through fangraphs... I checked the top 30 base stealers in baseball (21+ steals). Some guys had high BABIP. Some guys, not so much. There were 12 guys under .300 and 13 guys over .320. Now all of those guys aren't as fast as Hamilton and some aren't even close to it. But some are. Michael Bourn is. Emilio Bonafacio is. Brett Gardner is. Jose Reyes is. The first two guys listed there, have had pretty high BABIP's. The other two guys have been more mixed, with Reyes dropping into the .280's and reaching the .350's. So speed doesn't always mean a high BABIP. Juan Pierre has had a sub .300 BABIP 4 times in his career.

And, as he ages, he'll also get better with the bat, fill out some, and hit the ball with more authority. It'll even out a bit in the wash. But Hamilton's total package is talented enough to think Hamilton a star.

That is assuming that he can make the adjustments to better pitching, which he may not. He has problems with pitch identification right now. And even if he does fill out some, which I am still not sure he has much filling out left, but he still isn't going to find much more power. His swing isn't conducive to power at all.

I get that. It even makes sense. But I'm guessing he'll learn to bunt better, he'll also get stronger, and he'll still have that incredible speed to beat out balls that aren't hit right at an infielder.

Perhaps, but even if you take out the bunts this year, his average was still at an incredibly high rate that shouldn't be expected.

[mdccclxix]

I had Grandal #1, Mez #2, so I'm hoping I don't have to stump too long for Grandal. I think in a way fans don't want to wed themselves too much to the idea of Gradal because a) he's in line behind a hard working success story in Mez b) if he's really an option that means we've traded Mez or Mez has struggled c) Grandal is a good trade piece so it's hard to envision him in a Reds uni d) the need for upgrades in Cincinnati almost necessitate Grandal getting moved in many trade scenarios. e) he wasn't really a rousing pick, it almost felt strange that he fell so far down, so people have never counted on him. He sort of just appeared that day instead of a list of many others people thought would be here. If you get past all that, he's a really compelling prospect. In his second full year, he'll be in AAA. By 24 or 25 he could really add a tough out to a lineup.

[dougdirt]

I had Grandal #1, Mez #2, so I'm hoping I don't have to stump too long for Grandal. I think in a way fans don't want to wed themselves too much to the idea of Gradal because a) he's in line behind a hard working success story in Mez b) if he's really an option that means we've traded Mez or Mez has struggled c) Grandal is a good trade piece so it's hard to envision him in a Reds uni d) the need for upgrades in Cincinnati almost necessitate Grandal getting moved in many trade scenarios. e) he wasn't really a rousing pick, it almost felt strange that he fell so far down, so people have never counted on him. He sort of just appeared that day instead of a list of many others people thought would be here. If you get past all that, he's a really compelling prospect. In his second full year, he'll be in AAA. By 24 or 25 he could really add a tough out to a lineup.

I imagine that he will be the #3 guy. I personally have him at #2.

[camisadelgolf]

Hamilton has a long way to go before he'll be an 8-win player on any level. However, the 'star' label isn't always applied to the games most elite players. We have the likes of ESPN to thank for that. Speaking of which, don't rule out the possibility for Hamilton to make enough highlight-reel plays to launch him into stardom. And for what it's worth, Jose Reyes has been a star pretty much ever since he was called up, and he slugged .426 over the first 5 years of his career.

[dougdirt]

And for what it's worth, Jose Reyes has been a star pretty much ever since he was called up, and he slugged .426 over the first 5 years of his career.

Of course Jose Reyes was also the same age as Hamilton is now when he had 300 PA's in the Majors.

Now, Jose Reyes was indeed a light hitter at age 20 in the Majors. But he also slugged .462 in the FSL at age 19 with 10 doubles, 11 triples and 6 HR's in about half a season after slugging .462 as an 18 year old in the South Atlantic League, which is the Midwest League's rival Low A league. Jose Reyes was a slugger at age 18 in that league. Billy Hamilton couldn't break .360 SLG more than one month in the entire season and never once topped .421 (in a month where he hit .333).

[Edd Roush]

Based on this thread's conversation, I would have no idea that Alonso is running away with this vote.

I guess I will speak for the silent majority of Alonso.

We all have different opinions of what makes a "top prospect." I tend to agree with the poster who said that it equates to total value or trade value. Right now, I have to think Alonso is the second most valuable minor leaguer. He has done the most in the bigs and has a great pedigree. His minor league numbers are deflated because of the hamate bone injury. I hope he can replicate his 2011 AAA line in the bigs. .296/.374/.486 in 409 PAs. His big league line of .330/.398/.545 was obviously tremendous in a small sample of only 98 PAs. Right now, he has the highest floor of any prospect on this list and he is the most valuable to the Reds not named Mesoraco. I know Yasmani had a great year and Billy could be a legend, but right now I wouldn't trade Alonso for either of them if Billy or Yasmani were on another team, straight up.

Give me Alonso at #2.

My first tough decision will be Cozart vs. Yasmani at #3.

[TRF]

I went with Soto. unreal power. 30 HR's in 379 AB's at AA? woof. He needs to walk more obviously, but it looks like in a 162 game season he'd walk about 45 times. He'll be at AAA in 2012 and I think he builds on last year's monster season.

[redsfandan]

I went with Soto. unreal power. 30 HR's in 379 AB's at AA? woof. He needs to walk more obviously, but it looks like in a 162 game season he'd walk about 45 times. He'll be at AAA in 2012 and I think he builds on last year's monster season.

I used to think that Alonso could eventually be the in house replacement for Votto at 1st if Votto doesn't stick around. But, lately I've thought that Soto could be that guy.

[crazybob60]

I have a question regarding this voting....it appears that Alonso will get the #2 prospect rating here. I voted for Cozart at #2. Now since Alonso will be gone and Cozart will still be there, how is the voting supposed to go at #3? Am I supposed to go with my #3 guy or go with the best guy left next (Cozart again until he is off the board) or how does that work? Just curious how most of you all do this?

[Edd Roush]

I have a question regarding this voting....it appears that Alonso will get the #2 prospect rating here. I voted for Cozart at #2. Now since Alonso will be gone and Cozart will still be there, how is the voting supposed to go at #3? Am I supposed to go with my #3 guy or go with the best guy left next (Cozart again until he is off the board) or how does that work? Just curious how most of you all do this?

I always select my best remaining player at the spot, not my personal player in the spot. So to answer your question, if I believed what you believe in Cozart being #2, I would again select him at #3 or until he gets enough votes to be put on the list.

[mdccclxix]

I always select my best remaining player at the spot, not my personal player in the spot. So to answer your question, if I believed what you believe in Cozart being #2, I would again select him at #3 or until he gets enough votes to be put on the list.

...and if you'd like to share what order your picks are in you can do that within the thread. So if you constantly have to pick Cozart until, say 8th or something, then you can let people know that you had xyz players in 3rd, 4th, 5th etc.