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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

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  • 1B/OF Yonder Alonso

    53 58.89%
  • RP Brad Boxberger

    1 1.11%
  • SP Dan Corcino

    2 2.22%
  • SS Zack Cozart

    10 11.11%
  • UT Todd Frazier

    0 0%
  • C Yasmani Grandal

    13 14.44%
  • SS Billy Hamilton

    7 7.78%
  • SP Kyle Lotzkar

    0 0%
  • OF Yorman Rodriguez

    0 0%
  • OF Dave Sappelt

    0 0%
  • 1B Neftali Soto

    2 2.22%
  • SP Robert Stephenson

    1 1.11%
  • 2B Ron Torreyes

    1 1.11%
  • other (please list below)

    0 0%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

  1. #31
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Here's a slightly different take on things.

    I see two players with "star" ability on the Reds list. Mesoraco and Hamilton.

    I see a third player who, given his position, could make the "star" list. Grandal.

    To me, those are your top three prospects. I understand that they are at different points of development. But these are guys with very rare abilities, given Hamilton's athleticism and baserunning ability, and given Mes and Grandal's talent and position scarcity.

    I see two players who, if I'm correct, project as solid players, perhaps starting players, but not "stars." Those are Cozart and Alonso. I'd probably go with Cozart 4 and Alonso 5 because of position scarcity and all around skills. But I can see Alonso 4 and Cozart 5.

    I recognize that Cozart and Alonso are well more advanced and more polished than someone like Hamilton. That counts. But in ranking prospects, I tend to put upside as the first order of business. And I tend to put potential stars at the very top.

    On Alonso, I think he is being rewarded in the poll for a good hitting stint in the majors. And certainly he can help the Reds. But there are many good hitting first basemen. He isn't a powerhouse guy, like a Ryan Howard. He isn't even a Sean Casey IMO, Sean having "off the charts" minor league numbers, well above Alonso. Nor do I see Alonso as the new Votto.

    So I view this as Mesoraco, Hamilton, Grandal, Cozart and Alonso as the top five, for those reasons. All good prospects, just a different view of the order.

    And, by the way, if these are the top five, I have Boxberger at number 6. Again, huge upside as a potential closer. If Box was a starter, with his stuff, he'd be even higher IMO.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-16-2011 at 11:13 AM.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Here's a slightly different take on things.

    I see two players with "star" ability on the Reds list. Mesoraco and Hamilton.

    I see a third player who, given his position, could make the "star" list. Grandal.

    To me, those are your top three prospects. I understand that they are at different points of development. But these are guys with very rare abilities, given Hamilton's athleticism and baserunning ability, and given Mes and Grandal's talent and position scarcity.

    I see two players who, if I'm correct, project as solid players, perhaps starting players, but not "stars." Those are Cozart and Alonso. I'd probably go with Cozart 4 and Alonso 5 because of position scarcity and all around skills. But I can see Alonso 4 and Cozart 5.

    I recognize that Cozart and Alonso are well more advanced and more polished than someone like Hamilton. That counts. But in ranking prospects, I tend to put upside as the first order of business. And I tend to put potential stars at the very top.

    On Alonso, I think he is being rewarded in the poll for a good hitting stint in the majors. And certainly he can help the Reds. But there are many good hitting first basemen. He isn't a powerhouse guy, like a Ryan Howard. He isn't even a Sean Casey IMO, Sean having "off the charts" minor league numbers, well above Alonso. Nor do I see Alonso as the new Votto.

    So I view this as Mesoraco, Hamilton, Grandal, Cozart and Alonso as the top five, for those reasons. All good prospects, just a different view of the order.

    And, by the way, if these are the top five, I have Boxberger at number 6. Again, huge upside as a potential closer. If Box was a starter, with his stuff, he'd be even higher IMO.
    I think most people would have those guys as the top 5 (with Mes #1). Who is actually in which spot just depends on the person.
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  4. #33
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Here's a slightly different take on things.

    I see two players with "star" ability on the Reds list. Mesoraco and Hamilton.

    I see a third player who, given his position, could make the "star" list. Grandal.

    To me, those are your top three prospects. I understand that they are at different points of development. But these are guys with very rare abilities, given Hamilton's athleticism and baserunning ability, and given Mes and Grandal's talent and position scarcity.

    I see two players who, if I'm correct, project as solid players, perhaps starting players, but not "stars." Those are Cozart and Alonso. I'd probably go with Cozart 4 and Alonso 5 because of position scarcity and all around skills. But I can see Alonso 4 and Cozart 5.

    I recognize that Cozart and Alonso are well more advanced and more polished than someone like Hamilton. That counts. But in ranking prospects, I tend to put upside as the first order of business. And I tend to put potential stars at the very top.

    On Alonso, I think he is being rewarded in the poll for a good hitting stint in the majors. And certainly he can help the Reds. But there are many good hitting first basemen. He isn't a powerhouse guy, like a Ryan Howard. He isn't even a Sean Casey IMO, Sean having "off the charts" minor league numbers, well above Alonso. Nor do I see Alonso as the new Votto.

    So I view this as Mesoraco, Hamilton, Grandal, Cozart and Alonso as the top five, for those reasons. All good prospects, just a different view of the order.

    And, by the way, if these are the top five, I have Boxberger at number 6. Again, huge upside as a potential closer. If Box was a starter, with his stuff, he'd be even higher IMO.
    Add in Neftali Soto and Ronald Torreyes, and I agree with you about star potential, then above-average starters.
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  5. #34
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Yorman Rodriguez - Star potential.
    Robert Stephenson - Star potential.

    Billy Hamilton - Not star potential except in fantasy baseball, because even at his best, guys who don't slug .425 aren't going to be stars.

  6. #35
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Stephenson also has star potential (much more than Corcino), as far off as he is right now. He'll be up there in my rankings.

  7. #36
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Billy Hamilton - Not star potential except in fantasy baseball, because even at his best, guys who don't slug .425 aren't going to be stars.
    Maury Wills? Lou Brock? Rickey Henderson?

  8. #37
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Maury Wills? Lou Brock? Rickey Henderson?
    Rickey Henderson had power that Billy Hamilton can't dream of. So did Lou Brock. Maury Wills had one season with an OPS+ over 100. Yeah, he won an MVP once upon a time. He shouldn't have. He had a .720 OPS that year. In no way, shape or form was he better than Mays, Aaron or Robinson that year. Stars, especially in todays game, have to hit. Otherwise Brandon Phillips would be a star. But he isn't.

    And lets be honest, slugging .425 back then was a lot different than it is now.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 10-16-2011 at 01:44 PM.

  9. #38
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yorman Rodriguez - Star potential.
    Robert Stephenson - Star potential.

    Billy Hamilton - Not star potential except in fantasy baseball, because even at his best, guys who don't slug .425 aren't going to be stars.
    Respectfully disagree.

    A guy like Hamilton (at his ceiling) could very well put up an 8.0 WAR at the major league level.

    That's a star in any league.
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  10. #39
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Respectfully disagree.

    A guy like Hamilton (at his ceiling) could very well put up an 8.0 WAR at the major league level.

    That's a star in any league.
    How are you breaking that down? Because his bat, I just can't see being any more than 2.5 WAR. He simply doesn't hit well enough, nor will he, to ever be better than that IMO.

  11. #40
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Doug, come on. Your statement was, "guys who don't slug .425 aren't going to be stars." All those guys were under .425 for their careers. Henderson was close, Brock was somewhat close and Wills wasn't close to close.

    The point about the eras being different is somewhat valid but not compelling. The league slugging average for the NL this year was .391. At the midpoint of Wills' career (1966) it was .384. At the midpoint of Brock's career (1970) it was .392. At the midpoint of Henderson's career it (in the AL) was .395.

  12. #41
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Doug, come on. Your statement was, "guys who don't slug .425 aren't going to be stars." All those guys were under .425 for their careers. Henderson was close, Brock was somewhat close and Wills wasn't close to close.

    The point about the eras being different is somewhat valid but not compelling. The league slugging average for the NL this year was .391. At the midpoint of Wills' career (1966) it was .384. At the midpoint of Brock's career (1970) it was .392. At the midpoint of Henderson's career it (in the AL) was .395.
    Henderson and Brock both put up 20+ HR seasons. Billy Hamilton is never going to hit 10. Who has been a star in the last 20 years who didn't hit 10 HR's in a season aside from Ichiro? Jose Reyes has had some seasons like that, but he also has some seasons where he has slugged over .475 and gone well over 10 HR's as well.

    My ceiling for Hamilton is about a .275 hitter with 50 walks and no power to speak of, unless he completely revamps his game at the plate. He is a guy who struggles to make contact and has no power. He has an incredibly long way to go before he is even a bad MLB type of hitter.

    Let's think about it like this.... Lou Brock had 4 seasons of an OPS+ between 123 and 129. That is what Jay Bruce has been the last two seasons. Do you ever think that Billy Hamilton could come close to the kind of hitter that Jay Bruce has been the last two seasons? Rickey Henderson actually led the league in OPS+ once with a 188 mark. That is 17 points better than Joey Votto was in 2010. So really, the comparison of those two players to Billy Hamilton is, in my opinion, way off base.

  13. #42
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yorman Rodriguez - Star potential.
    Robert Stephenson - Star potential.

    Billy Hamilton - Not star potential except in fantasy baseball, because even at his best, guys who don't slug .425 aren't going to be stars.
    I disagree on Hamilton, although perhaps we just have different definitions of a star player.

    As for Yorman and Stephenson, I'm just reserving judgment for now. Both need to show a little more in pro ball (certainly in Stephenson's case) before I would rate them this high. We'll know a lot more about each in a year I think. Both could potentially have star potential.

  14. #43
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I disagree on Hamilton, although perhaps we just have different definitions of a star player.

    As for Yorman and Stephenson, I'm just reserving judgment for now. Both need to show a little more in pro ball (certainly in Stephenson's case) before I would rate them this high. We'll know a lot more about each in a year I think. Both could potentially have star potential.
    Yorman Rodriguez had a better OPS in Dayton than Hamilton and was two years younger. Now of course that doesn't account for defense.... but I am curious as to why you disagree on Hamilton but reserve judgment to see more on Rodriguez.

  15. #44
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yorman Rodriguez had a better OPS in Dayton than Hamilton and was two years younger. Now of course that doesn't account for defense.... but I am curious as to why you disagree on Hamilton but reserve judgment to see more on Rodriguez.
    For a player like Hamilton, I don't view OPS as the be-all and end-all. He won't have the SLG component, it's not his game. He's a potential lead off hitter, with an almost unique baserunning skill.

    Hamilton had a .340 OBP (higher than Yorman) at Dayton and all those stolen bases.

    Hamilton is a very raw player at this point, but if he can OBP .360 or so - certainly attainable since he's already at .340 - he can be a star player given his baserunning IMO.

    It's apples and oranges to me. Very different types of player.

  16. #45
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    How are you breaking that down? Because his bat, I just can't see being any more than 2.5 WAR. He simply doesn't hit well enough, nor will he, to ever be better than that IMO.
    If you extrapolate his second half numbers this season in Dayton to the major league level, his offensive WAR would be more than a point over your lowball guess.

    IMO, at his ceiling right now, he's a 2009 Denard Span at SS with better basepath speed and a possible Gold Glove.

    That'd be an 8.0 WAR guy and a star.

    What's cool about this is that he has a chance to be even better than that. He's still only scratched the surface of his abilities. As he learns more about the game, what type of player he is, and his own swing, he could be as disruptive a force as the game has to offer.
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