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Thread: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I also said approach. I think he will have more chance to succeed and adjust to MLB pitching because he's a switch hitter with a good eye for the strike zone and power from both sides. Lower ceiling, higher floor, that's how I see it. My biggest concern for Grandal is pitch recognition and K rate, but since it was his first year and he did so well with OBP, I am optimistic that he will get his K rate down in the 17-19% range. Mesoraco could end up a 20 hr catcher, with a .245 average, which I don't think holds as much value as a catcher that bats, say .285 with 12-15 hr and OBP's .380. That's my rough vision of the future there.
    Why do you think that the guy who strikes out less and has more power will hit for a much lower average? That really doesn't make much mathematical sense.

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  3. #32
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Grandal has the higher floor because he walked a little bit more than Mesoraco? Doesn't Mesoraco having hit well in AAA over 557 plate appearances trump a really high walk rate in Bakersfield?
    Code:
    Grandal
    	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP
    A	0	--	--	---	---
    A+	251	16%	23%	.214	.359
    AA	172	8%	23%	.173	.377
    AAA	18	--	--	---	---
    
    Mesoraco
    	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	
    A	334	6%	19%	.137	.300
    A+	538	10%	20%	.196	.302
    AA	212	9%	18%	.299	.300
    AAA	557	10%	17%	.199	.318
    For me, the big thing in the data is this: When Mes moved to AA (leaving Sarasota, a pitcher's paradise), his power spiked big time while his BB%, K% and BABIP held steady. When Grandal moved to AA (leaving Bakersfield, a hitter's paradise), his walk rate was cut in half while his K%, ISO and BABIP held steady. On top of that, his BABIP is unsustainable at the major league level unless he's a line driving hitting freak like Joey Votto. That's possible, but it's much, much more likely that he's in large part been the beneficiary of good "luck", bad defense, etc.

    Now, to be fair, Mes was dealing with bad thumbs in his first years, so those early ISOs may have not been a good representation of his talent. And while Mes's power dropped back to mere above average instead of top notch in AAA, Doug has suggested that AAA suppresses RH pull power. I think Doug is arguing a few things:
    - Mes makes more contact
    - Mes has more power
    - Grandal's 16% BB rate in Bakersfield was not sustainable

    In short, Grandal is Mes with less contact and less power. I will be watching these 3 things from Grandal next year:

    1.) Does he sustain a .350+ BABIP?
    2.) Does he sustain a .180+ ISO?
    3.) Does his BB% rebound north of 10%?

    We should have a much clearer picture of Grandal this time next year
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #33
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Doug has suggested that AAA suppresses RH pull power.
    Actually, Louisville suppresses left handed pull power, which would actually hurt Mesoraco's opposite field power. While Mesoraco is a pull first hitter, his IsoP to right field dropped from .447 in 2010 to .156 this year. I saw several warning track fly balls to dead right field this season that would have been gone in most other parks that wound up being outs for Mesoraco.

    1.) Does he sustain a .350+ BABIP?
    It is worth noting that his LD rate in Bakersfield was only 13% and in Carolina it was 20%. So it wasn't as if he were spraying line drives all over the place. So I don't think his BABIP is going to be sustainable unless he improves his rate of line drives, I don't think its going to happen that he is Joey Votto like (Grandal for example had 19 IFFB's this year, while Votto has had 2 over the last two seasons, which is one reason why his BABIP remains high).

  5. #34
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    In short, Grandal is Mes with less contact and less power. I will be watching these 3 things from Grandal next year:

    1.) Does he sustain a .350+ BABIP?
    2.) Does he sustain a .180+ ISO?
    3.) Does his BB% rebound north of 10%?

    We should have a much clearer picture of Grandal this time next year
    One other thing to keep an eye on -- health. Grandal had a balky elbow this year. He was in and out of the lineup, and now he's been missing time in the AFL too. Not sure if the elbow is causing all of these absences, but if it is, it's likely something that will have to be addressed at some point.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #35
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Why do you think that the guy who strikes out less and has more power will hit for a much lower average? That really doesn't make much mathematical sense.
    Like I said, it was a rough guess.
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  7. #36
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Like I said, it was a rough guess.
    But what is it based around? Guys with less power and less contact rarely hit for higher averages than guys with more contact and more power, much less 30-40 points higher. Was your guess simply based on the fact that Grandal can hit from both sides of the plate?

  8. #37
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    But what is it based around? Guys with less power and less contact rarely hit for higher averages than guys with more contact and more power, much less 30-40 points higher. Was your guess simply based on the fact that Grandal can hit from both sides of the plate?
    That and his walk rate, yes.
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  9. #38
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I will leave open the possibility, though, that Yasmani has the skill set to put the ball in play where he wants to more often, leading to a higher BABIP than Mez, who just takes a strong cut and can really connect, but often just misses good contact. For a 1st round talent out of Miami that has been praised for his approach, I wouldn't put it past him yet, and a high BABIP is certainly not an uncommon trait for advanced hitters in the minors, no matter the environment.
    You can't put BABIP skills past him, but you also can't even begin to draw a conclusion on that after less than 400 at bats in single A.

  10. #39
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    That and his walk rate, yes.
    Walk rate could either be great pitch recognition or just a product of approach. Stubbs has a very solid walk rate, but I think it's safe to say pitch recognition has nothing to do with it. We'll have to wait and see on Grandal, but the K rate so far points more towards him taking pitches as opposed to having great discipline.

  11. #40
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Walk rate could either be great pitch recognition or just a product of approach. Stubbs has a very solid walk rate, but I think it's safe to say pitch recognition has nothing to do with it. We'll have to wait and see on Grandal, but the K rate so far points more towards him taking pitches as opposed to having great discipline.
    Especially since when he went to AA, his walk rate dramatically declined.

  12. #41
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Especially since when he went to AA, his walk rate dramatically declined.
    I hope these Mesoraco comparisons stop just so I can say something nice about Grandal for once. I like him a lot everyone!

  13. #42
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    I hope these Mesoraco comparisons stop just so I can say something nice about Grandal for once. I like him a lot everyone!
    Yeah my intent wasn't to air all his dirty laundry, oh well. What's that saying, "trying to help can make things 1,000 times worse." My original point in this thread was that the return on Mez may outweigh the risk in keeping Grandal. At this point I'm thinking trade them both!
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  14. #43
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    I have had no desire to trade our best players.

    But I'm starting to have a change of heart.

    I atleast would make them available in trade, and field offers. I would make it known to every GM that every player is available for the right offer, and then see what kind of crazy offers come in. If someone is willing to overpay in a Herschel Walker-type offer, then YOU have to consider it.

    If everyone is underpaying, then you sit tight and go to war with your stud players.
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