For me, the big thing in the data is this: When Mes moved to AA (leaving Sarasota, a pitcher's paradise), his power spiked big time while his BB%, K% and BABIP held steady. When Grandal moved to AA (leaving Bakersfield, a hitter's paradise), his walk rate was cut in half while his K%, ISO and BABIP held steady. On top of that, his BABIP is unsustainable at the major league level unless he's a line driving hitting freak like Joey Votto. That's possible, but it's much, much more likely that he's in large part been the beneficiary of good "luck", bad defense, etc.Code:Grandal PA BB% K% ISO BABIP A 0 -- -- --- --- A+ 251 16% 23% .214 .359 AA 172 8% 23% .173 .377 AAA 18 -- -- --- --- Mesoraco PA BB% K% ISO BABIP A 334 6% 19% .137 .300 A+ 538 10% 20% .196 .302 AA 212 9% 18% .299 .300 AAA 557 10% 17% .199 .318
Now, to be fair, Mes was dealing with bad thumbs in his first years, so those early ISOs may have not been a good representation of his talent. And while Mes's power dropped back to mere above average instead of top notch in AAA, Doug has suggested that AAA suppresses RH pull power. I think Doug is arguing a few things:
- Mes makes more contact
- Mes has more power
- Grandal's 16% BB rate in Bakersfield was not sustainable
In short, Grandal is Mes with less contact and less power. I will be watching these 3 things from Grandal next year:
1.) Does he sustain a .350+ BABIP?
2.) Does he sustain a .180+ ISO?
3.) Does his BB% rebound north of 10%?
We should have a much clearer picture of Grandal this time next year
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Actually, Louisville suppresses left handed pull power, which would actually hurt Mesoraco's opposite field power. While Mesoraco is a pull first hitter, his IsoP to right field dropped from .447 in 2010 to .156 this year. I saw several warning track fly balls to dead right field this season that would have been gone in most other parks that wound up being outs for Mesoraco.
It is worth noting that his LD rate in Bakersfield was only 13% and in Carolina it was 20%. So it wasn't as if he were spraying line drives all over the place. So I don't think his BABIP is going to be sustainable unless he improves his rate of line drives, I don't think its going to happen that he is Joey Votto like (Grandal for example had 19 IFFB's this year, while Votto has had 2 over the last two seasons, which is one reason why his BABIP remains high).1.) Does he sustain a .350+ BABIP?
One other thing to keep an eye on -- health. Grandal had a balky elbow this year. He was in and out of the lineup, and now he's been missing time in the AFL too. Not sure if the elbow is causing all of these absences, but if it is, it's likely something that will have to be addressed at some point.In short, Grandal is Mes with less contact and less power. I will be watching these 3 things from Grandal next year:
1.) Does he sustain a .350+ BABIP?
2.) Does he sustain a .180+ ISO?
3.) Does his BB% rebound north of 10%?
We should have a much clearer picture of Grandal this time next year
Walk rate could either be great pitch recognition or just a product of approach. Stubbs has a very solid walk rate, but I think it's safe to say pitch recognition has nothing to do with it. We'll have to wait and see on Grandal, but the K rate so far points more towards him taking pitches as opposed to having great discipline.
Yeah my intent wasn't to air all his dirty laundry, oh well. What's that saying, "trying to help can make things 1,000 times worse." My original point in this thread was that the return on Mez may outweigh the risk in keeping Grandal. At this point I'm thinking trade them both!
2015 Rotation: Under Construction
I have had no desire to trade our best players.
But I'm starting to have a change of heart.
I atleast would make them available in trade, and field offers. I would make it known to every GM that every player is available for the right offer, and then see what kind of crazy offers come in. If someone is willing to overpay in a Herschel Walker-type offer, then YOU have to consider it.
If everyone is underpaying, then you sit tight and go to war with your stud players.
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