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Thread: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    The conventional wisdom seems to be that Mes/Hanigan will be the catchers in 2012. Grandal may get dealt this offseason. If not and Mes plays well then Grandal likely gets dealt before 2013. He is one of our biggest trading chips. I have been thinking. The trade scenario I have seen floated about most often is Alonso/Grandal for Shields. This makes sense for both teams. However, I presume Mes has a higher trade value than Grandal. He is rated higher as a prospect & is one level more developed. What if the team brought back Ramon on the cheap for one year, traded Mes, and planned for Grandal/Hanigan in 2013? Could we snare a strong starter for Mes and change rather than have to give up two of our top three prospects to grab that pitcher?
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    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Keep em both
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    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Wouldn't be a good idea to trade Mesoraco. Looks like the real deal to me. Catcher is a hard position to fill, and he should fill it well for a good long time.
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    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    I agree, if it's about getting a better player in return, why not trade Mesoraco?

    - Mez is "ready" now, but there will certainly be a learning curve at the plate and behind the plate and this team is in win now mode next year.

    - I honestly don't think Mez is getting more than 80-85 starts anyway. Dusty just won't do it unless he's totally killing it.

    - The difference between the two catching prospects is debatable. If the Reds feel they are keeping the better catcher in Grandal, that's even better.

    - Resigning Ramon would be hugely unpopular, unless the Mez trade brought back a huge star player. What could be worse than retaining the best catching tandem in the NL?

    - In the "You are the GM...Shortstop" thread I posted this trade idea:

    Mesoraco + Chapman + Cozart = 28 y/o Hanley Ramirez at 3 years 46.5 million

    BP
    Bruce
    Ramirez
    Votto
    Rolen
    Alonso/Heisey
    Stubbs/Heisey
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    A bird in the hand. Unless you're somebody who is otherwise unattainable (e.g. Felix Hernandez), Grandal is the chip. I get where you're coming from, but I think that's getting a bit too cute.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    In a word, nope.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  8. #7
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    A bird in the hand. Unless you're somebody who is otherwise unattainable (e.g. Felix Hernandez), Grandal is the chip. I get where you're coming from, but I think that's getting a bit too cute.
    First, there's a good chance that neither of them work out that well. Second, there is a chance that just one of them will. Third, there is a chance that both work out well.

    To me the chances that it's Mez or Grandal are very similar. Just being 1 year ahead of the other doesn't really mean much to me for the Red's purposes.

    Besides whether Mez is the difference between Felix or Shields, say, I think the variable that says the Reds actually like Grandal better is actually just as likely as them liking Mez better. Or they just can't make up their minds. Who wouldn't believe that?

    Nevertheless, trading one of them this offseason seems like the right thing to do when you consider:

    1) Mez doesn't work out and
    Yas doesn't work out

    2) Mez works out or
    Yas works out

    3) Mez works out and
    Yas work out

    1 out of 6 scenarios would produce regret, if the Reds trade the one who works out. Both values are very high, Mez's is higher. If the Reds actually like Grandal as much or more, they should definitely trade Mez for a great return if it's available.

    If there isn't a good deal for the Reds, a "Carson Palmer" type deal let's say, I won't mind keeping both, either. I've said before that Grandal can be a stop gap, if not a real solution, at 1b in 2014, batting right behind Mesoraco, our cleanup hitter.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    First, there's a good chance that neither of them work out that well. Second, there is a chance that just one of them will. Third, there is a chance that both work out well.

    To me the chances that it's Mez or Grandal are very similar. Just being 1 year ahead of the other doesn't really mean much to me for the Red's purposes.

    Besides whether Mez is the difference between Felix or Shields, say, I think the variable that says the Reds actually like Grandal better is actually just as likely as them liking Mez better. Or they just can't make up their minds. Who wouldn't believe that?

    Nevertheless, trading one of them this offseason seems like the right thing to do when you consider:

    1) Mez doesn't work out and
    Yas doesn't work out

    2) Mez works out or
    Yas works out

    3) Mez works out and
    Yas work out

    1 out of 6 scenarios would produce regret, if the Reds trade the one who works out. Both values are very high, Mez's is higher. If the Reds actually like Grandal as much or more, they should definitely trade Mez for a great return if it's available.

    If there isn't a good deal for the Reds, a "Carson Palmer" type deal let's say, I won't mind keeping both, either. I've said before that Grandal can be a stop gap, if not a real solution, at 1b in 2014, batting right behind Mesoraco, our cleanup hitter.
    I'm not against keeping them both, at all. We saw what happened to the Rangers and their supposed glut of catching (though I wouldn't mind getting Mike Napoli for a mediocre reliever). But if you're trading one and both return good value, I'm keeping the guy who has crushed AAA pitching over a full season and has better reviews defensively.

    The difference between them isn't just "one year". In his age 22 season, Mes hit .302/.377/.587, .964 OPS with 26 HR. Grandal hit .305/.401/.500 with 14 HR. But more to the point, Mes went out this year and was very solid in AAA. We can't simply assume Grandal will do the same. Yes, he's potentially 1 year away from being close to where Mes is now. But there's a very real chance he won't be.

    At the plate, I'm not sure Grandal has the power you'd typically like to see out of 1B. He's still got a very good bat that would likely play just about anywhere, but he loses a good chunk of value moving off catcher. Of course, that's a problem I'd like to have.

    At the end of the day, you can make a similar argument with any decent prospect. Let's not trade him because it might come back to haunt us. But this is a team poised to succeed. Mes can be a part of that this year. Grandal cannot. If it came to it, if we can get a piece that would help us a lot, trading Mes would hurt our 2012 roster, blunting the benefit of acquiring that other player. Trading Grandal wouldn't. I'm not leading trade offers with Grandal, but I definitely wouldn't let a deal fizzle out over including him.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    if we can get a piece that would help us a lot
    That's the big IF. Gotta be a frontline player under team control for 3+ years, IMO. Otherwise, hang onto both. The chance still exists that they can build for the future with both guys (one at 1B or in LF -- with Mes being the more likely to move, given his athleticism). I really like Grandal's LH bat for GAB and his ability to work counts -- don't want to see them trade him for a marginal upgrade.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    To the original question.... absolutely not. Mesoraco is a potential .850+ OPS bat at catcher with potential above average defense. Grandal isn't either of those things. To compare their sheer tools against the other, Mesoraco has the better hit tool, Mesoraco has the better power, Mesoraco is the better thrower, Mesoraco is the better defender and Mesoraco has better speed, though it doesn't matter at all since they play catcher. Athletically, Mesoraco is a little better. When it comes to plate discipline, I think Mesoraco is more advanced there now, but its probably pretty close in the future.

    In short, Mesoraco is on a completely different level than Grandal is. In my opinion, Grandal's ceiling is probably pretty close to what Mesoraco is today.

    Grandal doesn't have the bat to play at first base, so for anyone thinking about that.... I would think again. With that said, Mesoraco could have the bat to play at first, so that could be a way to keep both 2-3 years down the road if you want to do something else with Alonso, but you had better be really sure about Grandal and Mesoraco to make that plan.

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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    How do you figure Mesoraco has a better hit tool, doug?

    Grandal's 2011 line is 305/401/500. I realize that includes Bakersfield for half a season, but it also includes Carolina (305 BA with similar patience and less pop than Mesoraco) for a 900 full season OPS. In his half-season of AA, Mesoraco went 294/363/594.

    I get the power and agree completely.

    But Grandal looks like his hit tool is pretty much the same asd is his patience.

    It's a great problem to have, really-- two very good catchers. One ready now and one ready next season.
    Last edited by Scrap Irony; 10-19-2011 at 06:17 PM. Reason: Whoops-- looking at wrong line
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  13. #12
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    To the original question.... absolutely not. Mesoraco is a potential .850+ OPS bat at catcher with potential above average defense. Grandal isn't either of those things. To compare their sheer tools against the other, Mesoraco has the better hit tool, Mesoraco has the better power, Mesoraco is the better thrower, Mesoraco is the better defender and Mesoraco has better speed, though it doesn't matter at all since they play catcher. Athletically, Mesoraco is a little better. When it comes to plate discipline, I think Mesoraco is more advanced there now, but its probably pretty close in the future.

    In short, Mesoraco is on a completely different level than Grandal is. In my opinion, Grandal's ceiling is probably pretty close to what Mesoraco is today.

    Grandal doesn't have the bat to play at first base, so for anyone thinking about that.... I would think again. With that said, Mesoraco could have the bat to play at first, so that could be a way to keep both 2-3 years down the road if you want to do something else with Alonso, but you had better be really sure about Grandal and Mesoraco to make that plan.
    Agree with this completely. Grandal is not an identical commodity arriving a year later. All evidence points to Mesoraco having the better career, and unless a trade partner will blow us out of the water for Mesoraco and scoff at Grandal, Mes is staying IMO. And secondly, I really hope we're not at a point 2-3 years from now where Grandal is our best option at first base. Walt should be spending the next year listening to offers on Grandal.

  14. #13
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    How do you figure Mesoraco has a better hit tool, doug?
    Because he does. He hits the ball harder. He has similar plate discipline, if not better.

    And let's also note that Grandal's BABIP this season was .375. That isn't likely to be repeated or even come close to.

  15. #14
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    How do you figure Mesoraco has a better hit tool, doug?

    Grandal's 2011 line is 305/401/500. I realize that includes Bakersfield for half a season, but it also includes Carolina (305 BA with similar patience and less pop than Mesoraco) for a 900 full season OPS. In his half-season of AA, Mesoraco went 294/363/594.

    I get the power and agree completely.

    But Grandal looks like his hit tool is pretty much the same asd is his patience.

    It's a great problem to have, really-- two very good catchers. One ready now and one ready next season.
    Grandal's average was solid, but he also struck out at a pretty healthy clip, which doesn't bode well for sustainability. And I haven't read anything recently, but bat speed and hit tool were questions about Grandal on draft day.

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    I see that .300/.400/.500 and my eyes light up too -- especially because of the walk rate. But I also see that his walk rate was more than cut in half in AA while he continued to strike out more than 20% of the time. And if we were to normalize his BABIP, we're looking at a .260/.360/.440 line. Still impressive for a 22 year old catcher, but not quite as much.

    Not to break character, but in any event there's a BIG difference between what slash stats a guy puts up and what his hit tool is. Doug is talking about an assessment about the guy's ultimate true talent -- not how that talent has manifested itself so far.

    Especially in the low minors there can be a big gap between observed performance and actual (or projected) ability, for any number of reasons. For example, a guy who can launch a straight fastball 500 feet and who has decent pitch recognition but who can't touch a good breaking pitch can hit .320 in the low minors with great power since he's facing a bunch of guys who can throw their breaking stuff for a strike. Put that guy in AAA (or the majors) and he's a .240 hitter and his power drops off as he makes weaker contact against better quality pitches. And that's just one thing. There's also the poor quality of the fields, worse defense, park effects, age relative to competition, etc.

    When we're talking about the minor leagues, the simple answer is that the performance numbers can be very deceiving. That's not to say they're useless, but the lower you go in the minors the less and less insightful actual performance is and the more you need to rely on the scouts. I don't think any of us has greater insight from what we can read in the numbers than we Doug can provide us from what he's scouted.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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