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Thread: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

  1. #16
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    When we're talking about the minor leagues, the simple answer is that the performance numbers can be very deceiving. That's not to say they're useless, but the lower you go in the minors the less and less insightful actual performance is and the more you need to rely on the scouts. I don't think any of us has greater insight from what we can read in the numbers than we Doug can provide us from what he's scouted.
    Numbers certainly shed light on a lot of things, but you've gotta look well beyond slash lines when a guy only has 400ABs in A ball. BABIP's a legitimate skill for hitters, but it's WAY to early to conclude that Grandal is even above average in that category.

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  3. #17
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Numbers certainly shed light on a lot of things, but you've gotta look well beyond slash lines when a guy only has 400ABs in A ball. BABIP's a legitimate skill for hitters, but it's WAY to early to conclude that Grandal is even above average in that category.
    Ummm.... I think you're misreading my post. I'm arguing precisely that we should not rely on the the stats to come to any conclusions when it comes to minor leaguers.

    However, if we're trying to estimate true talent by looking at the stats, we should be regressing his BABIP towards league average quite a bit.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #18
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Ummm.... I think you're misreading my post. I'm arguing precisely that we should not rely on the the stats to come to any conclusions when it comes to minor leaguers.

    However, if we're trying to estimate true talent by looking at the stats, we should be regressing his BABIP towards league average quite a bit.
    oh yea I wasn't disagreeing with you at all. I was just expounding on the BABIP thing.

  5. #19
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    I respect Doug's opinion on these catchers, but what does Mesoraco's .855 OPS normalize to this year? If Grandal's normalized OPS is .800, and Mesoraco's is say .825, are we really talking about another level? The reports on Grandal's arm are not world beating, but you know, every time I hear Mesoraco brought up from the Red's perspective its that "he's learning" or "he's working on some things". It's never a ringing type of statement. It sort of reminds me of Sappelt. I'm not saying Mez has any serious issues, but he's certainly not a finished product defensively. He's also not a lock to OPS over .800 year in and year out, if at all.
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  6. #20
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I respect Doug's opinion on these catchers, but what does Mesoraco's .855 OPS normalize to this year? If Grandal's normalized OPS is .800, and Mesoraco's is say .825, are we really talking about another level? The reports on Grandal's arm are not world beating, but you know, every time I hear Mesoraco brought up from the Red's perspective its that "he's learning" or "he's working on some things". It's never a ringing type of statement. It sort of reminds me of Sappelt. I'm not saying Mez has any serious issues, but he's certainly not a finished product defensively. He's also not a lock to OPS over .800 year in and year out, if at all.
    If you want to go the normalizing stats route, we first need to adjust for BABIP, which drops Grandal down to .800 or so. Then we need to account for the fact that he did a good chunk of that in one of the best offensive parks in the minors -- in high A. Hardly the same thing as putting up an .855 in AAA.

    But I'd go back to the whole scouting/stats distinction. I don't claim to be a scout, but the ones I've seen/heard from say that Mesoraco has a significantly higher offensive upside than Grandal. That certainly doesn't make it fact -- as we've seen with Votto -- but it's still the best insight we've got. As for the working on things, show me a 23 year old catcher who is a finished product and I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #21
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I respect Doug's opinion on these catchers, but what does Mesoraco's .855 OPS normalize to this year? If Grandal's normalized OPS is .800, and Mesoraco's is say .825, are we really talking about another level? The reports on Grandal's arm are not world beating, but you know, every time I hear Mesoraco brought up from the Red's perspective its that "he's learning" or "he's working on some things". It's never a ringing type of statement. It sort of reminds me of Sappelt. I'm not saying Mez has any serious issues, but he's certainly not a finished product defensively. He's also not a lock to OPS over .800 year in and year out, if at all.
    I don't think you can just "normalize" OPS and compare the two. Mesoraco put up a pretty sustainable .855 OPS over 500AB in AAA. On top of that, it's not exactly the best hitter's park or league. Grandal had a nice season, but BABIP certainly played a factor and I don't think you can put too much stock into his power until he plays outside of Bakersfield for a while.

    Dimensions of Bakersfield home field LF: 328 CF: 354 RF: 328

    I'm not knocking Grandal, but Mesoraco is on a whole different level until Grandal proves otherwise.

  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I respect Doug's opinion on these catchers, but what does Mesoraco's .855 OPS normalize to this year? If Grandal's normalized OPS is .800, and Mesoraco's is say .825, are we really talking about another level? The reports on Grandal's arm are not world beating, but you know, every time I hear Mesoraco brought up from the Red's perspective its that "he's learning" or "he's working on some things". It's never a ringing type of statement. It sort of reminds me of Sappelt. I'm not saying Mez has any serious issues, but he's certainly not a finished product defensively. He's also not a lock to OPS over .800 year in and year out, if at all.
    I think Grandal's arm is actually pretty solid. It grades out as average to a slight tick above from the times I have had on him.

    As for normalizing things, I will say this.... Louisville's right field robbed Mesoraco of a few extra HR's this season that he would have gotten in most places, including GABP. He is a pull hitter, but when he goes the other way it is usually with power. Last season his IsoP to right field was .447, which is pretty darn good. This season it was below .200 in Louisville. It is a tough place to hit the ball out of.

    As for the knocks on Mesoraco's defense.... I think these are the same things you hear about just about all minor league catchers. We just haven't had any worth talking about who were young in how long? Hanigan was always an older guy (spent his career in the minor leagues until he was 27) and who was the last guy from the system to catch before him? I think it is just a perception thing because we haven't had a guy worth talking about at that position who was also young in 10+ years.

  9. #23
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    2 Names -- Saltimacchia and Teagarden. Prospects don't always become JB. Keep 'em both.
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  10. #24
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Unless we are blown away with an offer, meaning a TOR type of SP, then no, we shouldn't, and I mean that for both Mes and Grandal.

  11. #25
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking View Post
    2 Names -- Saltimacchia and Teagarden. Prospects don't always become JB. Keep 'em both.
    Nobody has ever become JB.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

  12. #26
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    I can't find any splits on where Yasmani hit the ball in Bakersfield, or any milb splits in 2011 for that matter, so I can't argue that Yas was aided by his environment and Mez was hurt by it. We'll go with Doug on that.

    I will leave open the possibility, though, that Yasmani has the skill set to put the ball in play where he wants to more often, leading to a higher BABIP than Mez, who just takes a strong cut and can really connect, but often just misses good contact. For a 1st round talent out of Miami that has been praised for his approach, I wouldn't put it past him yet, and a high BABIP is certainly not an uncommon trait for advanced hitters in the minors, no matter the environment.

    In his first year of pro ball he did well. Like many 1st round catchers, he spent 22 in A+ and AA. I suspect he may need to work on pitch recognition if his bb rate in AA was due to better off spead stuff. His 22% or so K rate needs to come down to the teens, IMO, which I think it can.

    I did some research on 1st round C's recently and would rank them, based on their 22-23 y/o seasons in A+ through AAA, like so:
    Weiters A
    Posey A-
    Mesoraco B+ (2010)
    Grandal B (2011)
    Jason Castro B-
    Jeff Clement C

    However, I put Grandal's floor a bit higher than Mez due to OBP skills and approach.
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  13. #27
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking View Post
    2 Names -- Saltimacchia and Teagarden. Prospects don't always become JB. Keep 'em both.
    Interestingly this is also the argument for trading both of them. You don't know if or when they will amount to something so trade them for known quantities. (Not something I would like to see happen by the way)

  14. #28
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    However, I put Grandal's floor a bit higher than Mez due to OBP skills and approach.
    Grandal has the higher floor because he walked a little bit more than Mesoraco? Doesn't Mesoraco having hit well in AAA over 557 plate appearances trump a really high walk rate in Bakersfield?

  15. #29
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    Nobody has ever become JB.
    You are correct, and like Thurman Munson, I shouldn't have embarrased them by comparing them to No. 5. I guess I should say we don't know if they will even become Joe Oliver.
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  16. #30
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Should we trade Mes & keep Grandal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Grandal has the higher floor because he walked a little bit more than Mesoraco? Doesn't Mesoraco having hit well in AAA over 557 plate appearances trump a really high walk rate in Bakersfield?
    I also said approach. I think he will have more chance to succeed and adjust to MLB pitching because he's a switch hitter with a good eye for the strike zone and power from both sides. Lower ceiling, higher floor, that's how I see it. My biggest concern for Grandal is pitch recognition and K rate, but since it was his first year and he did so well with OBP, I am optimistic that he will get his K rate down in the 17-19% range. Mesoraco could end up a 20 hr catcher, with a .245 average, which I don't think holds as much value as a catcher that bats, say .285 with 12-15 hr and OBP's .380. That's my rough vision of the future there.
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