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Thread: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

  1. #1
    -The Insider-
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    Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    This was posted in the ORG, but the Reds finally have purchased the contract of outfielder Denis Phipps from Triple-A Louisville. Phipps finally had a breakout season, hitting .346 between Double-A Carolina and Triple-A.
    Phipps would have been eligible for free agency if the Reds did not add him to the 40.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    I think people are in for a shock this year with Phipps if they expect him to continue his supposed "breakout."

    Code:
    Season	Team	Age	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR
    2006	R	20.5	238	5.4%	21.0%	.124	.362	.289	.335	.413	 4
    2007	A	21.5	505	8.1%	19.4%	.100	.282	.238	.313	.338	 9
    2008	A	22.5	518	6.6%	21.8%	.101	.317	.255	.307	.357	 7
    2009	A+	23.5	544	5.7%	20.0%	.145	.281	.237	.286	.382	10
    2010	A+/AA	24.5	514	8.2%	20.4%	.164	.295	.247	.314	.411	12
    2011	AA/AAA	25.5	511	7.8%	24.3%	.181	.446	.346	.398	.527	12
    One of two things happened last year -- or some combination of the two.

    1) He turned in to an all-world line drive hitter the likes of which we've never seen
    2) He had amazing run of good luck

    In 2011...
    He was 25/26 years old (July birthday) and reached AAA for the first time.
    Entered the season with a career OPS on the wrong side of .700.
    His BABIP jumped 150 points. That's a 50% increase. Take away a 1/3 of his hits if you want to normalize his slash stats.
    He struck more than ever, getting in to the territory where people start saying "that guy strikes out too much".
    He didn't walk more, sustaining a mediocre walk rate.
    His ISO increase was moderate and explained fully by the BABIP spike. His non-increase in homers helps demonstrate this. He's put up
    He's got decent speed, but he's not a great baserunner.

    This is an org guy who had a career year on the back of a fluke BABIP. It's a great story, but unless he's an absolute tool shed (and maybe he is...), he's not a prospect. If he is a good hitter in 2012 it will be because either he fundamentally takes a giant step forward or because he continues to get lucky.

    I can see rostering him because he could have some trade value to a team that doesn't look at BABIP. But in terms of helping the Reds win baseball games, he's not a good use of a spot on the 40 man roster. As best I can tell, his upside is Darnell McDonald, a completely fungible 5th OF at best.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-27-2011 at 12:21 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    This is an org guy who had a career year on the back of a fluke BABIP. It's a great story, but unless he's an absolute tool shed (and maybe he is...), he's not a prospect.
    I think you're wrong about Phipps. I don't know what "absolute tool shed" means, but he most definitely has tools.

    He may not be an All-Star caliber player, but I think he's got the ability to be a major league regular, easily a 4th OF type if not, given his all around game.

    This is a guy with a different development path than we're used to seeing, that's all.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I think you're wrong about Phipps. I don't know what "absolute tool shed" means, but he most definitely has tools.

    He may not be an All-Star caliber player, but I think he's got the ability to be a major league regular, easily a 4th OF type if not, given his all around game.

    This is a guy with a different development path than we're used to seeing, that's all.
    What path? A path where a guy's production can be sustained solely through an otherworldly BABIP despite mediocre peripherals? Or one where a massive BABIP is a leading indicator of a guy ready to take a sustainable leap built on improved fundamentals. What do you see happening with his walk rate, strikeout rate, etc. next year?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    He started to listen to critiques and what he was doing wrong. That is the explanation of the turnaround.

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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    What path? A path where a guy's production can be sustained solely through an otherworldly BABIP despite mediocre peripherals? Or one where a massive BABIP is a leading indicator of a guy ready to take a sustainable leap built on improved fundamentals. What do you see happening with his walk rate, strikeout rate, etc. next year?
    Late bloomer. Didn't start playing baseball till he was 17-18. As cinreds21 points out, he had some learning to do. He's always been said to have a high ceiling.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    I'd love to see the spray chart for Phipps. I saw him a few times and naturally he had a few hits. They seemed to find the outfield somehow.
    2015 Rotation: Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani

  9. #8
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    His run of BABIP luck is carrying over into winter ball. After 8 games he is 11 for 28. 1 double and 1 home run. Along with 8 Ks. and 5BBs Hitting nearly .400. OPSing over 1.000. BABIPing over .500. K% 24.something percent. BB% 15.something percent. All these numbers are rough since it did not show HBP or sac flies or sacrifice bunts.

    http://firstinning.com/players/Denis-Phipps-a/

    Scroll down to game log.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    Phipps didn't turn into an elite line drive hitter. He had a LD rate of 25%, which is well above average without a doubt, but guys do that all of the time and come back down.

    I am with Rick, somewhat. I believe that Phipps breakout was mostly from an insanely high BABIP. He made ever so slight improvements across the board in his peripherals.

    He has good offensive tools. He always has. I, and some of you, have been hearing it for years. But those tools aren't breaking the BABIP rule. If he even turned into Joey Votto in terms of BABIP, he is probably a 4th outfielder because he has excellent defense. Phipps might find himself as an extra outfielder because he can play all three spots and has an outstanding arm (I am probably understating his arm there). I just don't see him hitting enough to be an every day player unless he makes actual improvements in either his walk rate or his strikeout rate that are significant.

  11. #10
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    Can y'all just enjoy the success he had this past season and just wait and see what happens? Damn.

  12. #11
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    Can y'all just enjoy the success he had this past season and just wait and see what happens? Damn.
    hahaha Inorite

    Phipps is a great story, and I'm really happy for him. I remember saying the Reds should've cut bait a couple years ago. I really hope he proves me wrong, but I'm not all that optimistic.

    That said, there's sometimes an assumption that a minor league player will see declined production once he hits the majors, but it's really not all that uncommon to see equal or improved production. Phipps might be one of those guys, and I can't wait to find out. Worst case scenario, the Reds have up to three years to work with him, and if they're ever shorthanded, at least they know they have an excellent defender. My money is on him having a career no better than Chris Dickerson's, but he has easily been worthy of a 40-man roster spot.

  13. #12
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    I hold out some hope for Phipps because of the tools, but I suspect RMR is right about this one. Phipps jumps from the unranked to about 20th on my list, but I can see how others would rank him more highly. I kind of hope the Reds can cash him in as part of a package.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    I knew little to nothing about Phipps prior to this season. I had seen the outrageous numbers he was putting up in Carolina about midway through the season so I knew he had to be on the list of guys ticketed for Louisville when a body was needed. When he did get the call he was nothing but impressive both offensively and defensively. With a lot of minor league guys you really have to go on just "what have you done for me lately" type of thinking. The argument that a lot of you are using against Phipps would be the same argument you could use against Mesoraco. He had several disappointing seasons prior to 2010. The Reds could have "cut bait" with him too. I think that has been proven that it would have been a mistake. I'm not saying Phipps is going to be a MLB star but he is probably deserving of that 40 man roster spot. Would anyone really rather see a Fred Lewis type free agent has been on the roster instead?

    On a complete side note to anyone else that has seen Phipps in person play, is it just me or physically does this guy look like Alfonso Soriano or what? Even his approach in the batters box with the high leg kick looks like Soriano. His defense in the outfield beats all hell out of Alfonso though.

  15. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    Quote Originally Posted by HalKing View Post
    I knew little to nothing about Phipps prior to this season. I had seen the outrageous numbers he was putting up in Carolina about midway through the season so I knew he had to be on the list of guys ticketed for Louisville when a body was needed. When he did get the call he was nothing but impressive both offensively and defensively. With a lot of minor league guys you really have to go on just "what have you done for me lately" type of thinking. The argument that a lot of you are using against Phipps would be the same argument you could use against Mesoraco. He had several disappointing seasons prior to 2010. The Reds could have "cut bait" with him too. I think that has been proven that it would have been a mistake. I'm not saying Phipps is going to be a MLB star but he is probably deserving of that 40 man roster spot. Would anyone really rather see a Fred Lewis type free agent has been on the roster instead?

    On a complete side note to anyone else that has seen Phipps in person play, is it just me or physically does this guy look like Alfonso Soriano or what? Even his approach in the batters box with the high leg kick looks like Soriano. His defense in the outfield beats all hell out of Alfonso though.
    No, you couldn't really use the same argument with Mesoraco. Mesoraco had disappointing seasons, but when he broke out two years ago (though I actually believe he broke out three years ago, but it was hidden because he played in the Florida State League, which hid a big uptick in his power), his numbers really increased because he began to hit the ball over the fence a whole lot more than before, while also making slight improvements elsewhere. Phipps didn't start doing that at all. He simply began adding extra singles while maintaining an iffy strikeout rate and a low walk rate.

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    Re: Reds purchase the contract of Phipps

    Phipps would be a great candidate to sell high on in a trade.


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