Joe Morgan was very small too. What was he, 5-7 and 155 lbs. in his prime?
I think Torreyes will be great and I struggled with not ranking him higher. I think he's next in line for me at #9.
RHP Brad Boxberger
LHP Tony Cingrani
RHP Drew Cisco
UT Todd Frazier
UT Brodie Greene
SS Didi Gregorius
LHP Ismael Guillon
OF Ryan LaMarre
RHP Kyle Lotzkar
2B Henry Rodriguez
OF Yorman Rodriguez
3B Gabriel Rosa
OF Dave Sappelt
1B Neftali Soto
2B Ron Torreyes
other (please list below)
Joe Morgan was very small too. What was he, 5-7 and 155 lbs. in his prime?
I think Torreyes will be great and I struggled with not ranking him higher. I think he's next in line for me at #9.
So were Dustin Pedroia, Omar Vizquel, and Miguel Tejada at the same age Torreyes is right now.
98% (IIRC) of all males really blossom between the ages of 18-21. With weight training, science, nutrition supplements, and the natural progression of the body, Torreyes should be able to continue to display pretty much the same power he's shown up until now physically.
It helps that his hit tool is so high. (Much higher than Altuve's, the same little guy he often gets compared to.) The higher the hit tool, the more likely he can find a gap or three and raise that OPS higher.
Conservatively, he's a 750-ish OPS bat. But his ceiling is much, much higher than that.
Hypothetically, what is his offensive ceiling?
I just don't see his power being enough to be "much, much higher" than .750 OPS. Of course, we may have a different definition of "much, much higher" which is why I am asking. What is the line you see as his ceiling, with a doubles/triples/HR line added in?
340/410/470/880
25-35 doubles
5-7 triples
10-15 dingers
Sappelt...but since he has no shot at winning I'll go with Soto who is in this area for me.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I still can't believe Box is going to take this when you still have Yorman, Soto, Torreyes, and Sappelt. I wish more Box supports would speak up and explain how they can rank him above those 4 guys.
"When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"
That is a very wide range of power there. From the bottom end to the top end of that spectrum, we are talking about a difference in about 50-60 points of slugging. If we go with the low end of 25/5/10, which is still pretty strong for someone his size and a 6% walk rate and a 10% strikeout rate, we are looking at these lines given the different BABIP rates over 600 PA's:
At the low end, he isn't coming close to your projected line with those rates. So lets look at if he is at the high end of that spectrum in power.Code:PA AB h 2b 3b hr bb k hbp sh sf babip avg obp slg 600 552 150 25 5 10 36 60 5 5 2 .289 .272 .321 .389 600 552 155 25 5 10 36 60 5 5 2 .300 .281 .329 .399 600 552 160 25 5 10 36 60 5 5 2 .310 .290 .338 .408 600 552 165 25 5 10 36 60 5 5 2 .320 .299 .346 .417 600 552 170 25 5 10 36 60 5 5 2 .331 .308 .355 .426 600 552 175 25 5 10 36 60 5 5 2 .341 .317 .363 .435
We get a bit closer here, though the average isn't there like you said without a very likely unsustainable BABIP over .360. His walk rate would still need quite a boost to reach the marks you listed as well.Code:PA AB h 2b 3b hr bb k hbp sh sf babip avg obp slg 600 552 155 35 7 15 36 60 5 5 2 .292 .281 .329 .451 600 552 160 35 7 15 36 60 5 5 2 .303 .290 .338 .460 600 552 165 35 7 15 36 60 5 5 2 .313 .299 .346 .469 600 552 170 35 7 15 36 60 5 5 2 .324 .308 .355 .478 600 552 175 35 7 15 36 60 5 5 2 .334 .317 .363 .487 600 552 180 35 7 15 36 60 5 5 2 .344 .326 .371 .496
So, am I off in my thinking here with his walk rate (6%) and strikeout rate (10%) compared to what you were thinking?
Yep, having all 3 of Corcino, Stephenson, and Boxberger ranked ahead of all 5 of Yorman, Soto, Torreyes, Sappelt, and Frazier is something I just don't get. It's almost like RedsZone wants the perception of the system to be that it's more balanced than it really is and doesn't want to acknowledge that the strength of the system is easily position players.
Last edited by redsfandan; 11-05-2011 at 01:16 PM. Reason: replaced 'I' with 'It' (woops)
Boxberger, Corcino, Stephenson 7, 8, 9 respectively.
Its not just about Starter versus Reliever. Its about liklihood of being a positive. I think its a pretty good bet that in the next couple of years that Boxberger will come up and successfully fill a role that the team spent $12 Million on in 2011. That would seem to have a lot of value that I think gets short changed here.
Of course I view prospects differently than most on here do. I have Billy Hamilton at number 10 while Zach Cozart sits at number 2 on my list.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
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