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Thread: Jurrjens anyone?

  1. #1
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    Jurrjens anyone?

    The article intimates that the Braves could have Jurrjens in play.

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/A...upgrade-110511

    What would it take?

    It also says he's in the last two years of arb. Frankly, I don't think that's a bad window for the Reds. Call it Votto's Last Stand years. At about $5 mill this year, I think the Reds could afford him. Just a matter of the talent going back the other way. Would Stubbs start the conversation?
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Jurrjens, who turns 26 on Jan. 29, was a candidate to start the All-Star Game last season, but he made only seven starts after the break because of a right knee injury. He also missed time with an oblique problem at the start of last season and nearly two months with a strained left hamstring in 2010 and, lest anyone forget, he had a shoulder scare in the spring of 10 and other shoulder issues in 06 and 07.
    Good/great pitcher when healthy. But the information in that quoted paragraph scares the crud out of me. Injuries. Boras client. Arbitration. Yuk.

    Who do the Braves think will give them much for him, with that situation hanging over the deal?

    I'll trade them Stubbs straight up. That's about it.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Atlanta is a tough match. They have Freeman, so probably little interest in Alonso. Christain Bethancourt probably means not much interest in Grandal. Now that they have Michael Bourne, I can't think of any reason why they would want Drew Stubbs. They have tons of young pitching on the verge, so I can't see why they would want any of the Reds question marks.

    I'd love to get Jurrjens but I don't see the Reds having what they'd want without massively overpaying with Bruce or Cueto.

    Jurrjens for Carlos Quentin might be a good match. Then the Reds could deal Stubbs+ for somebody like John Danks.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    I'd stay far away for Jurrjens. He lost significant velocity last season, and has turned into a junkballer of sorts. There's a reason why the Braves want to trade him.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    The Braves aren't in the habit of trading away good, long-term starters. If they're offering Jurrjens, there's probably a sinister reason behind it.

    Stay away.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Fools gold, I'll pass. He doesn't have great control. He doesn't miss bats. His good ERAs have been on the back of lucky HR rates or a lucky BABIP. If we needed another 3/4 type, I guess I'd be interested -- but we don't.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Fools gold, I'll pass. He doesn't have great control. He doesn't miss bats. His good ERAs have been on the back of lucky HR rates or a lucky BABIP. If we needed another 3/4 type, I guess I'd be interested -- but we don't.
    I'll pass because of what the Reds would have to pay to get him, but I don't really think the Reds have 3 better pitchers than Jurrjens even if you normalize the BABIP and HRs.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #8
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?


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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'll pass because of what the Reds would have to pay to get him, but I don't really think the Reds have 3 better pitchers than Jurrjens even if you normalize the BABIP and HRs.
    Agreed. He'd be in our rotation if we had him. But he's a relatively small upgrade and not worth the price.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    A sobering thought for those who think Jurrjens is basically a 3rd or 4th starter. Johnny Cueto was even luckier, not much better than a standard error where xFIP is concerned. Both missed significant time, but Cueto's lost time was due to an actual arm injury. Cueto will probably make more money in 2012. Jurrjens could very easily be the Reds best starter if he was here in 2012.

    Not saying that the Reds should go ater Jurrjens at all cost, but it points to the urgency of improving the rotation. The one spot we all think we can count on may be in for a fairly significant loss in production. If the rotation was bad with Cueto having a luck driven ERA of 2.31, what will it be like if he has an ERA near 4.00 as his component stats suggest?

    Code:
    Name	ERA	IP	BABIP	HR/FB	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	K/9 drop	FIP	xFIP
    Cueto	2.31	156	0.249	5.80%	0.46	2.71	6.00	(0.69)	       3.45	3.90
    Jair    2.96	152	0.269	8.00%	0.83	2.61	5.33	(1.32)	       3.99	4.23
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    A sobering thought for those who think Jurrjens is basically a 3rd or 4th starter. Johnny Cueto was even luckier, not much better than a standard error where xFIP is concerned. Both missed significant time, but Cueto's lost time was due to an actual arm injury. Cueto will probably make more money in 2012. Jurrjens could very easily be the Reds best starter if he was here in 2012.

    Not saying that the Reds should go ater Jurrjens at all cost, but it points to the urgency of improving the rotation. The one spot we all think we can count on may be in for a fairly significant loss in production. If the rotation was bad with Cueto having a luck driven ERA of 2.31, what will it be like if he has an ERA near 4.00 as his component stats suggest?

    Code:
    Name	ERA	IP	BABIP	HR/FB	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	K/9 drop	FIP	xFIP
    Cueto	2.31	156	0.249	5.80%	0.46	2.71	6.00	(0.69)	       3.45	3.90
    Jair    2.96	152	0.269	8.00%	0.83	2.61	5.33	(1.32)	       3.99	4.23
    Good stuff.

    But I don't mind Jurrjans' FIP as much as his declining velocity. He averaged below 90 MPH last hear on his fastball, down 2 MPH from his previous years. That scares me.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Just to be clear, I've been very forward about Cueto's fabulous luck this year. That is a big part of the reason I've been so adamant about adding a legit top of the rotation guy and not another 3/4.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #13
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Just to be clear, I've been very forward about Cueto's fabulous luck this year. That is a big part of the reason I've been so adamant about adding a legit top of the rotation guy and not another 3/4.
    Ideally, I'd agree, but its not like the Reds have enough legit number 3s or 4s to fill out a rotation either. Cueto, Leake, maybe Arroyo if he can bounce back?, maybe Bailey if he can stay healthy??, Volquez?????, Wood ???????, Chapman ???????????????????????????? and after those guys they have absolutely nothing worthy of a major league start. I guess Lecure would be next in line. There really aren't any number ones available. If they wanted to break the bank they could get a weak number 2 in CJ Wilson. If they use all the payflex they might be able to get Mark Buerhle. It doesn't sound like James Shields is available. Wandy Rodriguez, Jair Jurrjens, Gio Gonzalez, etc are the number 3 types who might be available. If they could get any of those guys for something along the lines of Stubbs/Volquez/Janish I'd be all for it. Adding a number 3 who can go deep in games would still be a huge upgrade and would probably do more good for the bullpen than spending a bunch of money on a relief pitcher. I just think Jurrjens will cost more than a Stubbs centered deal and I'm not sure I'd be willing to part with Alonso or anything more than that.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    I don't really want Buerhle or Wandy, mainly because of the money (and talent in Wandy's case) required.

    Guys I'd like to see pursued in the order of what I'd be willing to give up in a trade:

    Pineda
    Shields
    Gonzalez
    Danks
    Jurrjens
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Jurrjens anyone?

    Braves are said to want a Greinke type return for Jurrjens, per MLBTR.
    2015 Rotation: Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani


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