Turn Off Ads?
Page 49 of 67 FirstFirst ... 3945464748495051525359 ... LastLast
Results 721 to 735 of 993

Thread: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

  1. #721
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,927

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    My take on Arroyo?

    His ERA has been driven by his BABIP both of which have dramatically improved with the significant improvement of the defense behind him. In other words, significant interaction between his performance and the Reds defense is a large reason why he's outperformed his peripherals so dramatically (i.e. his ERA has been better than his FIP would predict) over the last several seasons. Or to say it another way, put him in front of the Reds defense of 2006-2008 and his ERA would be much closer to his FIP.

    Why do I argue this?

    Here is a breakdown of Arroyo by year showing his ERA, FIP and BABIP. When the FIP-ERA is positive, it means his ERA was lower than his peripherals would predict (i.e. his ERA outperformed his FIP):

    Code:
    Arroyo				
    Season	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	BABIP
    2006	3.29	4.15	0.86	0.271
    2007	4.23	4.57	0.34	0.309
    2008	4.77	4.5	-0.27	0.314
    2009	3.84	4.78	0.94	0.265
    2010	3.88	4.61	0.73	0.239
    2011	5.07	5.71	0.64	0.278
    It's important to note that Arroyo's ERA has outperformed his FIP in 5 of the 6 seasons he's been a Red. But many would agree his 2006 ERA was an anomaly that was unsustainble. Certainly the magnitude of difference between his FIP and ERA spanning the 2009-2011 seasons would not have been expected based upon his prior performance or legitimately ascribed to a skillset. Realizing some may argue this point, below follow a few tables that hopefully demonstrate why one might make the above statement.

    Here's the same breakdown for the Reds' pitching staff over the same years:

    Code:
    Reds				
    Season	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	BABIP
    2006	4.51	4.63	0.12	0.31
    2007	4.94	4.55	-0.39	0.31
    2008	4.55	4.53	-0.02	0.312
    2009	4.18	4.66	0.48	0.283
    2010	4.01	4.18	0.17	0.288
    2011	4.16	4.45	0.29	0.282
    Here are the BABIP for the Reds staff and Arroyo for the two periods of his tenure as a Red (2006-2008 where the Reds had one of the worst defenses in the league and 2009-2011 where the Reds had one of the best defenses in the league):

    Code:
    BABIP by defensive performance
    	         Reds	  Arroyo
    2006-08	         0.311	  0.298
    2009-11	         0.284	  0.261
    Decrease	-0.026	 -0.037
    The data above indicates that for the period of 2009-2011 when Arroyo's ERA has significantly outperformed his FIP despite declining peripherals, the Red's staff as a whole has consistently outtperformed it's FIP as well. The third table suggests the reason why-the dramatically improved defense has driven a large part of this outcome. So he did not outperform his FIP independent of significant influence by his defense.

    So in other words, if the Reds were to pay market value for Arroyo's production over the last several seasons, they'd essentially be "paying double" for the cost associated with building their defense. This also can explain why Arroyo does not have a great deal of trade value despite his ERA's.

    All of that said, a look at Arroyo as a Reds does seem to suggest he has outperformed his peripherals to a greater degree than can solely be explained by the impact of the defense behind him. So there may be room to poke at something interesting here, albeit a minor effect. However, when looking at his time as a Pirate and BoSock, he displayed no discernible ability to consistently outperform his peripherals.

    The ultimate takehome? If they can get a legit arm for their rotation, they should. At least Arroyo should not be a rationale for preventing such a trade.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #722
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    7,496

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Jimmy Rollins' agent, Dan Lozano, has told the Phillies that he is having dialogue with a second unidentified team, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.


    hmmm
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  4. #723
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    10,500

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    My take on Arroyo?

    His ERA has been driven by his BABIP both of which have dramatically improved with the significant improvement of the defense behind him. In other words, significant interaction between his performance and the Reds defense is a large reason why he's outperformed his peripherals so dramatically (i.e. his ERA has been better than his FIP would predict) over the last several seasons. Or to say it another way, put him in front of the Reds defense of 2006-2008 and his ERA would be much closer to his FIP.

    Why do I argue this?

    Here is a breakdown of Arroyo by year showing his ERA, FIP and BABIP. When the FIP-ERA is positive, it means his ERA was lower than his peripherals would predict (i.e. his ERA outperformed his FIP):

    Code:
    Arroyo				
    Season	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	BABIP
    2006	3.29	4.15	0.86	0.271
    2007	4.23	4.57	0.34	0.309
    2008	4.77	4.5	-0.27	0.314
    2009	3.84	4.78	0.94	0.265
    2010	3.88	4.61	0.73	0.239
    2011	5.07	5.71	0.64	0.278
    It's important to note that Arroyo's ERA has outperformed his FIP in 5 of the 6 seasons he's been a Red. But many would agree his 2006 ERA was an anomaly that was unsustainble. Certainly the magnitude of difference between his FIP and ERA spanning the 2009-2011 seasons would not have been expected based upon his prior performance or legitimately ascribed to a skillset. Realizing some may argue this point, below follow a few tables that hopefully demonstrate why one might make the above statement.

    Here's the same breakdown for the Reds' pitching staff over the same years:

    Code:
    Reds				
    Season	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	BABIP
    2006	4.51	4.63	0.12	0.31
    2007	4.94	4.55	-0.39	0.31
    2008	4.55	4.53	-0.02	0.312
    2009	4.18	4.66	0.48	0.283
    2010	4.01	4.18	0.17	0.288
    2011	4.16	4.45	0.29	0.282
    Here are the BABIP for the Reds staff and Arroyo for the two periods of his tenure as a Red (2006-2008 where the Reds had one of the worst defenses in the league and 2009-2011 where the Reds had one of the best defenses in the league):

    Code:
    BABIP by defensive performance
    	         Reds	  Arroyo
    2006-08	         0.311	  0.298
    2009-11	         0.284	  0.261
    Decrease	-0.026	 -0.037
    The data above indicates that for the period of 2009-2011 when Arroyo's ERA has significantly outperformed his FIP despite declining peripherals, the Red's staff as a whole has consistently outtperformed it's FIP as well. The third table suggests the reason why-the dramatically improved defense has driven a large part of this outcome. So he did not outperform his FIP independent of significant influence by his defense.

    So in other words, if the Reds were to pay market value for Arroyo's production over the last several seasons, they'd essentially be "paying double" for the cost associated with building their defense. This also can explain why Arroyo does not have a great deal of trade value despite his ERA's.

    All of that said, a look at Arroyo as a Reds does seem to suggest he has outperformed his peripherals to a greater degree than can solely be explained by the impact of the defense behind him. So there may be room to poke at something interesting here, albeit a minor effect. However, when looking at his time as a Pirate and BoSock, he displayed no discernible ability to consistently outperform his peripherals.

    The ultimate takehome? If they can get a legit arm for their rotation, they should. At least Arroyo should not be a rationale for preventing such a trade.
    Interesting analysis, and it seems to have some validity.

    I'm swamped at work right now, otherwise I would provide the answer to this question myself, but I wonder how many pitchers are out there, that are these "league average" starters, that could be had for close to half the salary that Arroyo earned (deferred money included) and who provide the similar odds of 30+ games started and 200+ IP over those same years from 2009-now, or even for 2011-2, the length of his extension.

    My guess is zero. But I would love to see the actual results.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #724
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Jimmy Rollins' agent, Dan Lozano, has told the Phillies that he is having dialogue with a second unidentified team, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.


    hmmm
    Doubt it, sounds like Lozano is reaching for leverage. Rollins doesn't seem to want to go anywhere but Philly.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  6. #725
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    1,059

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    In terms of Arroyo, ya'll can talk numbers until you're blue in the face, but from what i witnessed he seemed to be mentally defeated by just about every lefty that stepped in the box. was this a result of him knowing the numbers? i dunno, hopefully he is healthy and can rebound, i wouldnt project worse for anyhow.

    another thing, he really seemed to go away from the changeup that broke down and away from lefties last year. does pitch fx data bare this out when comparing years past? it was an effective pitch for him in the past. he's never going to be tough on lefties, but he's been much better at limiting their damage in the past

  7. #726
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,021

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Jimmy Rollins' agent, Dan Lozano, has told the Phillies that he is having dialogue with a second unidentified team, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.


    hmmm
    Tigers?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #727
    High five! nate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Irvine, CA
    Posts
    6,976

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    1. Deferred money
    I can't see how it's a "plus" that we get to pay for last season in the future.

    2. His first season was an anomaly, so yeah I agree, but he's been rather steady since then, until last season.
    Steadily declining, yes.

    3. Then he's been above average. He's averaged just a hair under 3 WAR a season since he became a full time starter.
    He's racked up 11.2 WAR in his six seasons with the Reds. That's 1.87 WAR/season. That's slightly below average.

    If he bounces back and has an average year for himself in 2012, he would come close to earning his extension based only on his peripherals. Not sure how likely that is, but that's what it would take.
    I think he has to be worth around 3.5-4 WAR/season for the next two years to be worth his contract. I don't think that's likely to happen.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  9. #728
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    5,912

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I can't see how it's a "plus" that we get to pay for last season in the future.
    The time value of money actually dramatically decreased the present day value of the contract he signed. If he remained being steady, the contract did have a chance to provide some surplus value.

    I wouldn't have done it because I didn't like his odds of remaining league average, as he's always walked a fine line, and has inched closer to the dark side seemingly every season.

  10. #729
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    21,065

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Jimmy Rollins' agent, Dan Lozano, has told the Phillies that he is having dialogue with a second unidentified team, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.


    hmmm

    Oh, wouldn't that be a nice Xmas present..
    Nice to fantasize..
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  11. #730
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    5,912

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Oh, wouldn't that be a nice Xmas present..
    Nice to fantasize..
    I don't know about you, but I sure don't fantisize about the Reds signing a 33 year old, declining production SS, for a 4+ year deal, when a team that has been throwing around money like there is no end in sight is struggling to bite the bullet on retaining him.

    For the salaries required, Rollins, IMO, is likely to go on the list of reasons of why you don't allocate huge resources to the free agent market, especially to guys who limp through the end of their prime seasons.

    It would be great if you could get him for 2 years at $10M a year, but that's just likley not realistic in a market where a similarly declining Rafeal Furcal almost gets that.

  12. #731
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,434

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    He's racked up 11.2 WAR in his six seasons with the Reds. That's 1.87 WAR/season. That's slightly below average.
    How are you defining average?

  13. #732
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by Orenda View Post
    In terms of Arroyo, ya'll can talk numbers until you're blue in the face, but from what i witnessed he seemed to be mentally defeated by just about every lefty that stepped in the box. was this a result of him knowing the numbers? i dunno, hopefully he is healthy and can rebound, i wouldnt project worse for anyhow.

    another thing, he really seemed to go away from the changeup that broke down and away from lefties last year. does pitch fx data bare this out when comparing years past? it was an effective pitch for him in the past. he's never going to be tough on lefties, but he's been much better at limiting their damage in the past
    Agreed. Arroyo threw alot more fastballs last year, which was odd considering his decline in velocity.

    I remember the Cardinal players calling him a junkballer in 2010. If he would stick to the junk, and only use the fastball out of the strikezone as a setup pitch, I think he will regain success. Hitters hate facing junkballers with 3 or 4 junk pitches.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  14. #733
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Melbourne, FL
    Posts
    4,854

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    I think it's safe to say the mono thing is a huge variable; besides the gopheritis and the stat evidence, his stuff just didn't look the same. Decreasing velocity as Vottomatic said, and his breaking stuff only occasionally had its previous bite. He might be terrible forevermore, or he might go right back to being the same pitcher he was before 2011. It's just hard to predict.

    I think it's probably safe to say he will get the chance to show 2011 was an anomaly, but in case it wasn't, the Reds need to have a viable Plan B.
    Not all who wander are lost

  15. #734
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    4,078

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Oh, wouldn't that be a nice Xmas present..
    Nice to fantasize..
    Hanley would be a nice Christmas present.. Rollins is like a fruit cake from you Aunt Edna.. You accept it but you set it aside and move on.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

    2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L

  16. #735
    Member dunner13's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    607

    Re: Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

    Darvish is the christmas present I want. Gives a #1 or #2 Starter and we don't have to give up any of our top prospects. We just need Bob to open up his wallet a little bit to make it happen.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25