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Thread: Off Season Confusion

  1. #1
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    Off Season Confusion

    Last year I thought what the Reds needed was to sign a Berkman or Ordonez type to play left and hit cleanup. This offseason seems a lot more confusing as to what steps the Reds need to take. Some thoughts

    1. Are there any teams that have a major prospect such as Alonzo blocked behind a young superstar such as Votto that we could deal for. Tampa seems possible with rotation strength.

    2. I hope they stay away from the Cook type fill in pitchers and maybe bundle several prospects for a TOR starter.

    3. There is no way on earth that they can coount on Rolen to be any kind of a middle of the lineup bat in 2012.

    4. Does Bailey have any kind of trade value these days?

    5. Hope they spend about half or less of what Cordero was making for 2012 closer.

    6. Would be great to find a utility infiekld guy that can play short and third to spell Rolen and protect Cozart.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Off Season Confusion

    First lets start with payroll obligations and expectations for 2012 (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts):

    Arroyo: $12m
    Votto: $11.5m
    Phillips: $12m (unless new contract is signed)
    Rolen: $8.1m
    Bruce: $5m
    Cueto: $5.4m
    Alonso:$1.4m
    Chapman: $4.7m
    Hanigan: $1.3m
    Cairo: $1m

    Total: $62.4m

    Arbitration Expectations:
    Masset: $2.4m
    Bray: $1.4m
    Janish: $.8m
    Arredondo: $1m
    Bailey: $1.8m
    Volquez: $2.3m

    Total: $9.7m

    League Minimums: around $5m
    (Stubbs, Leake, Heisey, Cozart, Wood, Ondrusek, Francisco, Mesoraco, Sappelt)

    Grand Total: $77.1m

    Now that we have that out of the way, two questions must be asked before even entering the offseason to figure out which direction the Reds must go.

    1a. After the market is set for Joey Votto can we afford to resign him without harming our future?
    1b. If we can sign him, is there any part of him that wants to remain here for the long haul?

    2. If we can't sign him for the long haul do we plan for two years and try and figure it out then or do we try and prepare for the future (which I believe is brighter then the next 2 years)?

    After answering those questions then you can move forward into the offseason. Now to your questions:

    1. Tampa Bay with their pitching, Atlanta with their pitching, Toronto with pitching, Boston and NYY because they can take on salaries. Other than that I don't see big packages going to or coming from anyone.

    2. I wouldn't mind signing an Erik Bedard to a 1 year deal with incentives; We could check in on Dontrelle and even Kazmir for minor league deals even though D-train probably earned a legit MLB offer.

    3. Completely agree! I think it is time to allow Juan Francisco to have his chance. Anything Rolen does is a bonus which is a shame because I personally loved the guy for years.

    4. I think he does because he has shown signs of life in each of the past two years and he is only 25. I would say though this may be the final year because he isn't young anymore, he's getting to the age where they should be figuring it out.

    5. My thought on the matter is don't even bother with it. Spend money on the whole bullpen if you want to win late not on 1 guy. Phillies in my opinion are complete morons and that GM should be fired for that deal.

    6. Jed Lowrie in Boston is my pick for a back up infielder; played both SS and 3rd for them and has pop and can hit from both sides of the plate.

    Now back to the offseason, I personally believe once Joey hits free agency he won't look back. So one has to ask themselves why look to trade away our replacement for him to upgrade pitching when in 2 years we are going to need him in a big way. Also it seems to me that Grandal is the true future behind the plate it just so happens that Mesoraco beat him here by a year so I don't think we should trade him either. We haven't a true SS since Larkin but everyone thinks Cozart can do the job (which I don't trust because we have either used an over the hill former all star or a wet behind the ears first timer and its not working). I truly believe that our team can be contenders not only for the next two years but for the future with a couple of trades and signings. Our farm system is loaded with position players but no major pitching prospects. And our "surplus" at the MLB level is lacking so I think we need to reload to get back on track. Not to mention that in the market that we are in we must be efficient in our spending so trading a Joey Votto to fill 2-3 weaknesses is a business/baseball efficient move.

    Say we trade Votto to the Blue Jays for Rickey Romero, Yunel Escobar and one of their top pitching prospects (Alverez, McGuire, Drabek, etc) we fill a TOR arm, our SS for 3-4 years, and put a pitching prospect better than what we have in AAA all for the same amount of $$. Now you can try and sign a RH/OF bat for the 3-4-5 (Yoennis Cepesdes) for $7-8m per year. Now that opens up the ability to trade from within without harming the farm system drastically and you haven't forfeited the current season or your future.

    You've got Heisey, Sappelt, Wood, Volquez, Cozart, Francisco, Frazier and even Hanigan (have to resign Ramon though) to trade for more arms.

    Why get rid of Votto? Payroll flexibility. No anxiety of whether he will be here in two years or not because we chose for him. With two years left on his contract the reward will be better (TX got Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Jarrod Saltlamacchia from the Braves for Teixeira in 2008). In 2001, Alex Rodriguez leaves the Mariners and signs with the Texas Rangers; Mariners win 116 games so you can do addition by subtraction.

    We are a small market team that honestly ever year has high hopes. Cincinnati is a baseball city and when we feel like we have a chance to win we show up but we aren't stupid either. Don't think that you can fool us into believe we are trying to win with Fred Lewis's, and Edgar Renteria's and Johnny Gome's of the free agent world. That's all we are going to get when we have no payroll flexibility. We need a RH power bat in the middle of the lineup to split up our LH, we NEED a SS, we NEED atleast 1 TOR arm, and another bullpen arm either to close or take someone else spot and we have about $8m to work with. That's how I feel about the Redlegs offseason.

  4. #3
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    Re: Off Season Confusion

    Bailey's trade value is to a contending team looking to fill a spot and some upside. The Phillies and Braves would be interested.

    I think a tad longer delivery would really spur Bailey however. His slider was better than Cueto's by years end. It was the "flatter than should be" fastball that was the problem.


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