Jocketty puts a end to Votto rumors; extension possible?

[RollyInRaleigh]

Exactly

[Ron Madden]

Just so everyone Knows. I'm not saying it's a sure thing that Votto goes the Free agent rout. Just that it is highly probable and there are some signs that point in that direction.

Both Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are seeking long term deals in excess of TWO Hundred Million Dollars. All I'm sayin' is that if Joey has another great season he might demand and could receive such a deal. I just don't see how a club in the Reds situation can afford to pay any one player that kind of money and remain competitive.

[redsfandan]

Agreed. A strong organization churns its role players and avoids the $4 and $5 Million deals for bench players and relief pitchers. When you do that, you can afford the face of your franchise.

Votto will make $19 Million 2013. If he signs a Kemp deal, its only $1 Million more to keep him. If they can afford $19 Million, I'm sure they can afford $20 Million. If he'd go 8 years at $160 Million I think its a no brainer that they keep him.

IMO, Votto will not leave town because of money, but he'll not look back if the team keeps squandering its opportunities to contend like they did in 2011.

That assumes that he'll be paid that money in 2013 by the Reds. It hasn't happened yet and I don't think anyone can say for sure that he won't be traded before then. Oh, except if you want to take Walt at his word that he won't be dealt.

[mth123]

That assumes that he'll be paid that money in 2013 by the Reds. It hasn't happened yet and I don't think anyone can say for sure that he won't be traded before then. Oh, except if you want to take Walt at his word that he won't be dealt.

Well, for all the talk about getting a better return this year, than by waiting, I don't see it. If Votto's deal is that rich, the Reds won't be the only team that can't afford him. There will be a limited number of teams that can pay and the ones that can would seem to be the ones with a big dollar guy already or will be in the bidding for Pujols or Fielder. Who is going to give up a package of players along with committing the dollars to keep him when they could just sign one of the others without giving up the players? If they just want Votto as a rental with no intention of committing big bucks long term, the return to cincy won't be much. The Reds best play is to keep him and try to win and if he walks, reinvest his money.

I don't see any team offering a deal where the players coming back would have more value than keeping Votto as long as possible and trying to win it all while he's here. Its not that I can't imagine some deals like that, I just don't see any team actually offering such a deal.

[Vottomatic]

I talked to Joey, and he did say he wants to go to Disney World. Other than that, he didn't say much.

[REDREAD]

But if Joey is hell bent on testing the free agent market time does matter.

the closer Votto gets to becoming a free agent the less trade value he has.

I don't think the Reds will ever trade Votto.
But let's say they do.
The closer Votto is to being a free agent, the more suitors there are available to trade him to as well, as there is less time/money commitment involved.

Look at Holliday .. He was traded twice as his contract was about to end.

[MikeS21]

Agreed. A strong organization churns its role players and avoids the $4 and $5 Million deals for bench players and relief pitchers. When you do that, you can afford the face of your franchise.

Votto will make $19 Million 2013. If he signs a Kemp deal, its only $1 Million more to keep him. If they can afford $19 Million, I'm sure they can afford $20 Million. If he'd go 8 years at $160 Million I think its a no brainer that they keep him.

IMO, Votto will not leave town because of money, but he'll not look back if the team keeps squandering its opportunities to contend like they did in 2011.

You are making a risky assumption here. You are assuming that come 2014, the market for Votto will be $20 million. Problem is, who is to say that the market price for Votto in 2014 won't be $25 million? I don't know. I hope you are right and it stays at $20 million.

My guess is that as soon as Pujols signs for 2012, you can add about 10% per year, and that will be Votto's price in 2014. And if that is true, the Reds cannot afford Votto, and all the cast of characters you want to surround him with: a #1 starter, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and that is assuming you have better than average players at all the other positions. And it only gets worse in 2015.

Not sure how squandering an opportunity in 2011 relates to Votto signing in 2014? Even if the Reds had won the World Series in 2011, how would that cause him to sign in 2014? Will winning the 2011 World Series keep Albert Pujols in St. Louis in 2012? Maybe ... maybe not.

[mth123]

You are making a risky assumption here. You are assuming that come 2014, the market for Votto will be $20 million. Problem is, who is to say that the market price for Votto in 2014 won't be $25 million? I don't know. I hope you are right and it stays at $20 million.

My guess is that as soon as Pujols signs for 2012, you can add about 10% per year, and that will be Votto's price in 2014. And if that is true, the Reds cannot afford Votto, and all the cast of characters you want to surround him with: a #1 starter, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and that is assuming you have better than average players at all the other positions. And it only gets worse in 2015.

Not sure how squandering an opportunity in 2011 relates to Votto signing in 2014? Even if the Reds had won the World Series in 2011, how would that cause him to sign in 2014? Will winning the 2011 World Series keep Albert Pujols in St. Louis in 2012? Maybe ... maybe not.

Actually the discussion is about signing him to an extension now and the impact of Matt Kemp's deal with LA. MVP, plays a higher leverage position, 1 year younger. IMO that seems to have set a market for Votto and any extension discussions. I don't think that Votto will leave town over the difference between $20 Million and $22 Million per year. But he may just want to go somewhere with a better chance to win and the Reds passive approach to contention in 2011 would probably be a factor in him deciding to leave.

[Unassisted]

Personally, I think he will end up testing the market...but these blanket statements of assurances that he WILL test the market or that he WILL do this or that...sorry, they've just started grating on my nerves a bit.

But that's what we do on message boards. We read the tidbits that the media give us... both straight up and between the lines, and we try to connect the dots from them to figure out what is happening and to anticipate what will happen.

Nowadays with Twitter and talk radio, we actually get conjecture directly from media people who talk to players. I know I tend to give their conjecture more weight than that from random message board posters. If Jim Day and John Fay tweeted that Votto has one foot out the door, then I would be more likely to think that, too. Thus, I'm guessing that a lot of the confidently-worded opinions you are reading here were formed by posters who also trust that media conjecture.

[klw]

I never got the impression from his statements at the time of the last contract that Votto was necessarily committed to testing the market. It seemed that he was more interested in not committing himself to being somewhere long term to a certain location or franchise at that point. He came across as being thoughtful and sincere as opposed to trying to do a spin on things. It seemed like he simply wasn't ready to say he wanted to be in Cincy past the date of the deal.

Analogy: He was ready to move in with the Reds and be monogamous but wasn't going to propose until he saw how the living together went first.

Here is what he said at the time.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...s_mlb&c_id=mlb

"I don't know, as far as beyond three years," Votto said on Dec. 4, perhaps foreshadowing the deal he wound up getting. "I think it's a real unfair question to ask. This is not me saying I don't want to be here. But last year was a difficult year for me. This year was a better year for me. It's really hard for me to think three years ahead, five years ahead, seven years ahead or 10 years ahead. When [Troy] Tulowitzki signed that 10-year contract [with the Rockies], I was blown away. I can't imagine seeing myself 10 years from now saying I want to be here. It's an overwhelming thing to ask a young person like myself and say, 'Here's a lot of money. Be happy with this over 10 years, deal with it.'"

While the last part deals with the amount of money, it seems that the place, circumstances, his happiness, and ability to commit long term are the primary issues in play here.

[Scrap Irony]

I get that feeling as well, klw. Perhaps it's simply good PR, but, in Votto's case (especially the way he seems to act at other times), I don't think it is.

That said, I'm sure leaving any money on the table will be virtually impossible. The combination of pressure from the MLBPA, his own competitive drive, and the attraction of playing in big games all season long will likely mean Votto will test the market. He may decide to stay in Cincinnati. Likely, he's going to Toronto, Baltimore (if they can't sign Fielder or Pujols this offseason), New York, LA, or another big market team.

I just hope he doesn't go to St. Louis. Then I will have to hate him with a passion.

[lollipopcurve]

Analogy: He was ready to move in with the Reds and be monogamous

Not really. He has had no choice in the matter.

Keep in mind that while Votto might be seen as keeping things close to the vest, it could be that his not saying anything positive about Cincinnati is a sign that despite having lived in the town for 4 years now (or at least 4 baseball seasons) he really hasn't found a way to enjoy the place.

[_Sir_Charles_]

But that's what we do on message boards. We read the tidbits that the media give us... both straight up and between the lines, and we try to connect the dots from them to figure out what is happening and to anticipate what will happen.

Nowadays with Twitter and talk radio, we actually get conjecture directly from media people who talk to players. I know I tend to give their conjecture more weight than that from random message board posters. If Jim Day and John Fay tweeted that Votto has one foot out the door, then I would be more likely to think that, too. Thus, I'm guessing that a lot of the confidently-worded opinions you are reading here were formed by posters who also trust that media conjecture.

I know that. Guessing what will happen, anticipating what will happen...all fine and good. Stating for a fact what will happen...very irritating to me lately. Nothing personal...just grating on my nerves lately.

[lollipopcurve]

He may decide to stay in Cincinnati. Likely, he's going to Toronto, Baltimore (if they can't sign Fielder or Pujols this offseason), New York, LA, or another big market team.

Like the Cubs. Or Miami, if they don't get a big-time 1B before then.

[Ron Madden]

I know that. Guessing what will happen, anticipating what will happen...all fine and good. Stating for a fact what will happen...very irritating to me lately. Nothing personal...just grating on my nerves lately.

I don't think anyone has ever come out and said they know that Joey is hell bent on testing the market.

The thought of it may grate on your nerves but there is a real and distinct possibility it happens.