Jocketty puts a end to Votto rumors; extension possible?

[dougdirt]

Care to elaborate on that road we went down before?

Paying top dollar to free agents, or to keep your own good players, only backfires if that player doesn't perform. If you pay Joey Votto $20M per season and he produces like a MVP caliber player is supposed to, then you don't have a problem there. The big key to me is whether or not your think Votto will age well or not. Will he age similar to Pujols or will he age like Jr. did? His position isn't as demanding as Jr's and without Votto's bat in the lineup this offense may be trouble.

There have been two MVP caliber Reds players in the past 3 decades. I would be willing to pay Votto to be a Red for a long time.

The Reds paying someone, even an MVP, 20-25% of their payroll, is likely to be a problem. The money probably won't be enough to fill out the rest of your roster around that player to the point where it matters that you DO have an MVP type of player.

[mdccclxix]

Basically, the Reds have to win big in 2012 in order to a) have any chance to afford Votto b) convince Votto it's a safe decision to sign long term with the Reds.

[lollipopcurve]

If Votto will not take a hometown discount, he's won't be staying. Jocketty is going to do the safe thing from a PR perspective and make another run at him, but I truly believe it's going to be a formality. Votto will not leave the kind of $$$ on the table that the Reds will ask him to.

Trade will come next offseason or at this year's trading deadline, IMO.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I love how most everyone here "knows" what Joey wants. LOL. He "wants" to test the market. He "wants" to go home to Toronto. He "wants" to sign near his home in Florida. He "wants" control over his future and it's why he didn't sign a longer contract.

Simply put, nobody here "knows" squat. From what I've seen/read/heard, Joey's very much his own man. It wouldn't surprise me if he feels that he's rich already. Not everybody is greedy. Some people do enjoy stability and loyalty. I'm not going to assume anything.

[Cedric]

Care to elaborate on that road we went down before?

Paying top dollar to free agents, or to keep your own good players, only backfires if that player doesn't perform. If you pay Joey Votto $20M per season and he produces like a MVP caliber player is supposed to, then you don't have a problem there. The big key to me is whether or not your think Votto will age well or not. Will he age similar to Pujols or will he age like Jr. did? His position isn't as demanding as Jr's and without Votto's bat in the lineup this offense may be trouble.

There have been two MVP caliber Reds players in the past 3 decades. I would be willing to pay Votto to be a Red for a long time.

It seems really simple to me. Can anyone name a franchise that has won consistently by paying one player the percentage Votto would make? History to me says the best move would be to maximize the return in value by moving him this winter.

[redsmetz]

It seems really simple to me. Can anyone name a franchise that has won consistently by paying one player the percentage Votto would make? History to me says the best move would be to maximize the return in value by moving him this winter.

But that's not what you said in your original post - you named three specific players, only one of whom had a really long contract (Griffey), that frankly, was well structured, but horribly managed by the previous owners. It was compounded by the unfortunate demise of Griffey through injuries, but they never really worked to build a good team around him even though he gave the Reds a very flexible deal. I'm still not sure what Cordero or Hernandez had to do with it.

What you say here certainly is a bonafide point, but it's not the same as what you put forward earlier.

[lollipopcurve]

Simply put, nobody here "knows" squat. From what I've seen/read/heard, Joey's very much his own man. It wouldn't surprise me if he feels that he's rich already. Not everybody is greedy. Some people do enjoy stability and loyalty. I'm not going to assume anything.

Technically, you're right. No one has had a conversation with Votto wherein he tells them what he plans to do after 2013.

But -- have you read his comments about baseball being a business and about how leverage switches to the player after 6 years of service time? What makes you think he might be more willing to give the Reds a discount in the future if he wasn't willing to last offseason? Why do you think he hired Dan Lozano as his agent? (Lozano is gunning for big money clients, and currently has Pujols testing the market.)

Nobody knows what Votto will do -- yet the signs are pointing in one direction, if you're paying attention and staying objective.

[Cedric]

But that's not what you said in your original post - you named three specific players, only one of whom had a really long contract (Griffey), that frankly, was well structured, but horribly managed by the previous owners. It was compounded by the unfortunate demise of Griffey through injuries, but they never really worked to build a good team around him even though he gave the Reds a very flexible deal. I'm still not sure what Cordero or Hernandez had to do with it.

What you say here certainly is a bonafide point, but it's not the same as what you put forward earlier.

I'm saying that I don't trust the current GM to flip value at the appropriate time.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Technically, you're right. No one has had a conversation with Votto wherein he tells them what he plans to do after 2013.

But -- have you read his comments about baseball being a business and about how leverage switches to the player after 6 years of service time? What makes you think he might be more willing to give the Reds a discount in the future if he wasn't willing to last offseason? Why do you think he hired Dan Lozano as his agent? (Lozano is gunning for big money clients, and currently has Pujols testing the market.)

Nobody knows what Votto will do -- yet the signs are pointing in one direction, if you're paying attention and staying objective.

The signs are pointing in one direction if you make lots of assumptions and guesses as to what things mean. Just because he hired some specific agent doesn't mean he going for some specific deal. It could be something as simple as he was recommended to him by someone he trusts. As for his comments about baseball being a business...I don't think anybody would disagree with this...but it doesn't mean that HE'S going to treat it that way. People are assuming he will.

Personally, I think he will end up testing the market...but these blanket statements of assurances that he WILL test the market or that he WILL do this or that...sorry, they've just started grating on my nerves a bit.

[bucksfan2]

The Reds paying someone, even an MVP, 20-25% of their payroll, is likely to be a problem. The money probably won't be enough to fill out the rest of your roster around that player to the point where it matters that you DO have an MVP type of player.

I disagree. They key with everything is player development and finding the right role players to fit your team. Every team has a window to compete, having an MVP caliber player makes that window a lot longer. Just this past off season two teams made it to the playoffs with very small payrolls. Now you tell me that Joey Votto making $20M a season upping the Rays payroll last year to $61M doesn't make them a much better baseball team. We are still talking about a payroll much lower than that of the Reds. Also Arizona last season could have added a $20M player last season, been under the Reds current payroll, and have been a better team with Votto.

In order to do this you have to hope that you have a guy like Hamilton who can replace Phillips when he becomes expensive. Or a guy like Boxberger can replace a closer at a fraction of the cost. Mesoraco can replace a Hernandez and Frazier/Francisco can replace an aging Rolen at a fraction of the cost.

[757690]

It seems really simple to me. Can anyone name a franchise that has won consistently by paying one player the percentage Votto would make? History to me says the best move would be to maximize the return in value by moving him this winter.

IN 2010, the Reds paid Cordero and Harang $24M combined, or 1/3 of the payroll, and got very little production out of them, and they won the division.

Votto will likely get less than 1/4 of the overall payroll, and be significantly more productive than Harang and Cordero combined.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I disagree. They key with everything is player development and finding the right role players to fit your team. Every team has a window to compete, having an MVP caliber player makes that window a lot longer. Just this past off season two teams made it to the playoffs with very small payrolls. Now you tell me that Joey Votto making $20M a season upping the Rays payroll last year to $61M doesn't make them a much better baseball team. We are still talking about a payroll much lower than that of the Reds. Also Arizona last season could have added a $20M player last season, been under the Reds current payroll, and have been a better team with Votto.

In order to do this you have to hope that you have a guy like Hamilton who can replace Phillips when he becomes expensive. Or a guy like Boxberger can replace a closer at a fraction of the cost. Mesoraco can replace a Hernandez and Frazier/Francisco can replace an aging Rolen at a fraction of the cost.

Much easier to find the role players than to find a talent the caliber of Votto to carry your team and be the face of your franchise.

[osuceltic]

Much easier to find the role players than to find a talent the caliber of Votto to carry your team and be the face of your franchise.

Yes, and Jocketty has a history of understanding this and paying for the true premium players. He will fill in around the edges with low-cost guys, but he finds a way to pay the difference-makers.

If Votto simply doesn't want to be here, then they can either trade him at the deadline in 2013 (if they're out of contention) or let him walk and take the draft picks. There is no gun to their head.

[Vottomatic]

If the Reds aren't going to trade for, sign, etc.......a Matt Holliday or Lance Berkman to hit behind Joey, they might as well trade for Joey.

Pujols is great, but he also benefits from the solid protection those guys provide behind him.

Reds don't have that guy that can protect Joey.

And from Joey's point of view, why would he want to be the best player on a mediocre team and continue to suffer through seasons like the last one where he was basically pitched around and saw little to hit? He won't. He will go to greener pastures. Greener in dollars and an organization that wins and has a good lineup around him.

[mth123]

Much easier to find the role players than to find a talent the caliber of Votto to carry your team and be the face of your franchise.

Agreed. A strong organization churns its role players and avoids the $4 and $5 Million deals for bench players and relief pitchers. When you do that, you can afford the face of your franchise.

Votto will make $19 Million 2013. If he signs a Kemp deal, its only $1 Million more to keep him. If they can afford $19 Million, I'm sure they can afford $20 Million. If he'd go 8 years at $160 Million I think its a no brainer that they keep him.

IMO, Votto will not leave town because of money, but he'll not look back if the team keeps squandering its opportunities to contend like they did in 2011.