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Thread: BPhil - deal or no deal?

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    BPhil - deal or no deal?

    According to the world of Twitter, today is a big day for BPhil. Guess he and his agent might be meeting with Walt and co. to talk contract extension.

    DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
    GoodMorning... Today is the day I find out my future w/ the @Reds! Either it's going to be a GREAT day or BAD day... #FingersCrossed

    What do you think? What's the offer? Accepted or no?
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    I don't see how a day in mid-November could carry that kind of weight..... Interesting nonetheless.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    I hope not. I know what Phillips wants and what he might even be worth. I don't think he is worth it to the Reds though. I really like Phillips, but he isn't getting any younger and it isn't like the Reds don't have multiple options that have a chance of being ready when he leaves for free agency to take over for him in 2013.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I hope not. I know what Phillips wants and what he might even be worth. I don't think he is worth it to the Reds though. I really like Phillips, but he isn't getting any younger and it isn't like the Reds don't have multiple options that have a chance of being ready when he leaves for free agency to take over for him in 2013.
    This. Objectively speaking, he deserves what he's asking to be paid. As the market goes, he can reasonably expect a big contract. But the Reds should not commit such a big chunk of payroll to a middle infielder on the wrong side of the 30. Will he age well? He very well might. But history shows us that when middle infielders (2B in particular) start to slow down, it tends to happen quickly. And on top of that, you're extending him on the back of what is almost assuredly his career year. If you can give him a deal that prices in some regression, great. But if you have to pay him as if he's definitely going to be a 4+ win player for the next 4 or 5 years, the deal is almost all downside risk.

    If he wants to add a year or two, I'm open to that. But if he's looking to cash in, to make that deal that guarantees a life of comfort for his extended family in perpetuity (which he has said he is) the Reds should not be the ones to take on that risk.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-16-2011 at 01:58 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    This. Objectively speaking, he deserves what he's asking to be paid. As the market goes, he can reasonably expect a big contract. But the Reds should not commit such a big chunk of payroll to a middle infielder on the wrong side of the 30. Will he age well? He very well might. But history shows us that when middle infielders (2B in particular) start to slow down, it tends to happen quickly. And on top of that, you're extending him on the back of what is almost assuredly his career year. If you can give him a deal that prices in some regression, great. But if you have to pay him as if he's definitely going to be a 4+ win player for the next 4 or 5 years, the deal is almost all downside risk.

    If he wants to add a year or two, I'm open to that. But if he's looking to cash in, to make that deal that guarantees a life of comfort for his extended family in perpetuity (which he has said he is) the Reds should not be the ones to take on that risk.
    You're right. However, the slow down doesn't typically happen until the player reaches his mid-thirties. Phillips' full-time comps include Grich (age 34: 4.4 wins; age 36: 2.9 wins), Davey Johnson (hit the wall at 30), Jeff Kent (age 37: 4.4 wins), Joe Gordon (age 34: 3.6 wins), Bret Boone (age 35: 7.1 wins). Also other similar players include Ray Durham (age 34: 3.9 wins), Ryne Sandberg (age 36: 3.8 wins), Frank White (age 35: 3.4 wins), Willie Randolph (age 36: 4.4 wins).

    Definitely seems to me that the investment, unless he's asking for something outrageous, would be well worth it.
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Phillips also posted these on Monday-

    DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
    #BPMemos "It's crazy how you find out what you WANT isn't always what you NEED"
    14 Nov

    DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
    GoodAfternoon... This past weekend was a huge eye opener for me!!!! Hopefully, @Baseball_Aces will have great news for me this week! #OnDeck
    14 Nov
    From the posts over the weekend, it looks like Phillips was in NYC for the Gold Glove Awards and spent quite a bit of time with Matt Kemp. Baseball Aces are his reps.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    You're right. However, the slow down doesn't typically happen until the player reaches his mid-thirties. Phillips' full-time comps include Grich (age 34: 4.4 wins; age 36: 2.9 wins), Davey Johnson (hit the wall at 30), Jeff Kent (age 37: 4.4 wins), Joe Gordon (age 34: 3.6 wins), Bret Boone (age 35: 7.1 wins). Also other similar players include Ray Durham (age 34: 3.9 wins), Ryne Sandberg (age 36: 3.8 wins), Frank White (age 35: 3.4 wins), Willie Randolph (age 36: 4.4 wins).

    Definitely seems to me that the investment, unless he's asking for something outrageous, would be well worth it.
    I'm curious what those guys were at their peaks. The aging curve for Phillips looks a lot different if you view him as a 6 win player right now than a 4 win player. I would also argue that he doesn't have any elite skill like Kent's power or Randolph's contact that is likely to stay an asset til the end. He's more Ryne Sandberg or Robbie Alomar lite. And with those guys, the age hits them all over. They lose the ability to catch up to heat at the same time they lose a step in the field.

    Obviously these are all just hypotheticals. From my perspective though, as I said above, the possibility that he ages like Jeff Kent is not worth the possibility that he ages like Davey Johnson, even if the former is much more likely.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Update from DatDudeBP
    http://twitter.com/#!/DatDudeBP
    DatDudeBP Brandon Phillips
    Asked my agent what we got to do to stay in #Cincinnati ... I told him, "If I got to eat lima beans, Ima eat lima beans" ~ Jerry Maguire
    1 hour ago

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    IMO, a player who wants to stay as badly as Phillips seems to...is exactly the kind of player you WANT to keep. I really hope he gets extended. Simply put, I don't see anybody in the system who's even CLOSE to ready to being able to replace Brandon. Especially with the leather. Torreyes is several years away.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    and it isn't like the Reds don't have multiple options that have a chance of being ready when he leaves for free agency to take over for him in 2013.
    The Reds have zero options to provide what Phillips provides to this team. Unless 2013 is to be the next round of tryout camp.

    If Phillips is too expensive, fine, but the Reds then need to re-invest his salary in another top player. Whether it be a second sacker or someone else.

    This isn't about making room for another prospect. It's about winning divisions and pennants.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The Reds have zero options to provide what Phillips provides to this team. Unless 2013 is to be the next round of tryout camp.

    If Phillips is too expensive, fine, but the Reds then need to re-invest his salary in another top player. Whether it be a second sacker or someone else.

    This isn't about making room for another prospect. It's about winning divisions and pennants.
    This is a common mistake made. The Reds don't have to have someone who can step in and replace Phillips. They need someone and about $11.5M, 11.5M, 10M and 8M to replace his production over the next four seasons.

    Right now, the Reds have a guy who just finished AA as a second baseman who has hit .307, .320 and .302 in full season leagues with a little bit of pop and speed. Sure thing? Absolutely not. But it means that the Reds don't have to rush into making a decision on Phillips today either, when they already control him for all of 2012 and can make a decision on whether they like Rodriguez enough to offer Phillips such a deal.

    And sometimes "prospects" are what get you to divisions and pennants. Both with production provided and salary relief that allows you to spend elsewhere. More than one way to skin a cat.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 11-16-2011 at 05:18 PM.

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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    This is a common mistake made. The Reds don't have to have someone who can step in and replace Phillips. They need someone and about $11.5M, 11.5M, 10M and 8M to replace his production over the next four seasons.

    Right now, the Reds have a guy who just finished AA as a second baseman who has hit .307, .320 and .302 in full season leagues with a little bit of pop and speed. Sure thing? Absolutely not. But it means that the Reds don't have to rush into making a decision on Phillips today either, when they already control him for all of 2012 and can make a decision on whether they like Rodriguez enough to offer Phillips such a deal.

    And sometimes "prospects" are what get you to divisions and pennants. Both with production provided and salary relief that allows you to spend elsewhere. More than one way to skin a cat.
    Prospects can contribute to winning teams. Usually, they contribute by complimenting the production of the team's stars.

    The Reds have two stars. Votto and Phillips. If they let one of them go in favor of your AA second baseman, the team will suffer.

    Now, as I said, if they let Phillips go and spend his salary on another star, that's ok with me. And it doesn't have to be a second baseman.

    But the idea that a team constructed around good AA second basemen and the like will prevail against the Cards and Brewers is a fallacy IMO.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Prospects can contribute to winning teams. Usually, they contribute by complimenting the production of the team's stars.

    The Reds have two stars. Votto and Phillips. If they let one of them go in favor of your AA second baseman, the team will suffer.

    Now, as I said, if they let Phillips go and spend his salary on another star, that's ok with me. And it doesn't have to be a second baseman.

    But the idea that a team constructed around good AA second basemen and the like will prevail against the Cards and Brewers is a fallacy IMO.
    Nowhere did I ever suggest just replacing Phillips and keeping the money in Bob's pocket was the way to go.

    Where did anyone suggest you construct a team around Henry Rodriguez? Until Joey Votto is no longer a Red or Jay Bruce steps his game up to the next level or two, the team is going to be built around Joey Votto.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Update from DatDudeBP
    http://twitter.com/#!/DatDudeBP
    He had me at hello. He had me at... hello.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: BPhil - deal or no deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    He had me at hello. He had me at... hello.
    Looks like Jocketty met with Phillips and his agents and made good progress. No deal imminent, however.

    -Matt


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