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Thread: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

  1. #1
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    "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    From an ESPN Insider article (I don't have a subscription so I don't know if the Reds had a hypotethical proposal or not...)

    "Let's trade Cole Hamels."

    As Buster Olney wrote on Monday, it's certainly not a scenario the Philadelphia Phillies' front office wants to face, but it could be one that's at least discussed this winter.

    Hamels turns 28 next month and will be a free agent after the 2012 season, and executives throughout baseball are skeptical about the Phillies' ability to keep the ace-level left-hander, considering the rest of their long-term salary commitments. Hamels is most definitely an ace. He's coming off his best season statistically and is in his prime. The Phillies should keep him, since aces don't exactly grow on trees, despite what it might seem like considering their rotation. Aces are also expensive, and if the Phillies decide to trade Hamels prior to the 2012 season, they will certainly find their phones burning up with prospective suitors.

    If the Phillies put Hamels on the market, here's what they should be looking for:

    1. A replacement in the rotation: Trading Hamels right now is not the best timing, as Roy Oswalt is leaving via free agency, which gives the Phillies two aces in Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, and then some mortality in Vance Worley and Joe Blanton, with Kyle Kendrick the most likely candidate from within to fill the No. 5 slot. Ignore Kendrick's 2011 ERA (3.22), since pitchers who don't miss bats (4.6 K/9) cannot sustain such numbers. And while teams are highly reticent to trade pitching prospects, they become willing when a pitcher like Cole Hamels is on the table.

    2. Bullpen help: Jon Papelbon is simply a Ryan Madson replacement/upgrade, Jose Contreras is old as Methuselah, and most inside the game expect a regression from Antonio Bastardo. Relievers are the most unpredictable commodity in the game, and depth there is always a good thing.

    3. Middle infield insurance: Jimmy Rollins is a free agent and Chase Utley is coming off the two worst seasons since his 2004 rookie campaign while missing a combined 106 games during that time. Enough said.

    4. Athletes with upside Because when it comes to your players, that's what the Phillies always look for. That's their draft mantra, and likely will be their mantra for trades as well.

    So while advising against the idea of it, let's play along and trade Cole Hamels to some likely interested parties, with the help of a big league executive who quipped, "Hey, I love trading other people's players!"
    What would that translate to from the Reds side?

    How about Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Nick Masset, Paul Janish and Yorman Rodriguez?

    Would you do that if you were the Reds? Would the Phillies?
    Go BLUE!!!

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  3. #2
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    I'm not trading a big package for him unless he signs an extension. If he's going to be one-and-done, that's going to reduce the price for him big time.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    From an ESPN Insider article (I don't have a subscription so I don't know if the Reds had a hypotethical proposal or not...)



    What would that translate to from the Reds side?

    How about Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Nick Masset, Paul Janish and Yorman Rodriguez?

    Would you do that if you were the Reds? Would the Phillies?
    For ONE YEAR of Hamels? No thanks. Now if an extension was certain...I'd certainly have to consider it.
    2014 predictions:
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    With Hamels in the fold, it would allow the Reds to contend for the World Series in 2012.

    It would ALSO give them a chance to gauge where Votto really is, and have a Hamels' extension as a contingency plan if Votto doesn't sign long-term.

    This also assumes we sign Phillips to an extension this offseason.
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    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    I would do that trade in a heartbeat for Hamels. But I seriously doubt they would do it. I think they would want an everyday player that is in MLB now. Hamilton doesn't fit that and Janish is uh.... well not an everyday player. Depending on how long they think Howard is going to be out Alonso might work. But I'm afraid they would want Bruce included with a bunch of prospects. Don't think I would do that.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    With Hamels in the fold, it would allow the Reds to contend for the World Series in 2012.
    I agree, this is the type of move you make if you want to be a World Series contender. Hamels is a true TOR and will take a lot to get him. If winning the World Series is the goal, then this is a player you target. This is the type of trade that Jocketty is known for making.

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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    How about Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Nick Masset, Paul Janish and Yorman Rodriguez?

    Would you do that if you were the Reds? Would the Phillies?
    For a year of Hamels?

    Yeah. Yeah, I think I would do that.

    I don't want to give up on Homer Bailey, but I think it's 50/50 that in the next year Cole Hamels will produce more value than the pre-free agency Homer Bailey.

    Billy Hamilton....yeah, I know there is a lot of smoke around him as a prospect, but I'll be surprised if he sticks to the middle infield. I think he's more likely to become Vince Coleman than a really good player.

    Masset...well, y'all know Masset. That would be the hard part of it, but do you give up a failed potential closer who still has potential for a real starting pitcher? Sure, you do.

    Paul Janish. His career as a red is pretty much over. He's bench fodder that you don't want to give 200 at bats to at this point. Yeah, I can part with that if only to clear off a roster spot.

    Yorman....Yorman, did not look good in Dayton and frankly (this is from the outside looking in) I don't know if Yorman wants to be a professional baseball player at this point. Dayton got better when Yorman got moved out of centerfield and then Dayton get even better when they started to limit Yorman's play. Again, it's too early to give up on a prospect, but (from the outside) I wouldn't mind giving up on this one.

    All that said, From the Phillies point of view, I don't think I make that trade. I think I can get mo better players. A lot of the value of the reds package is in potential and the Phillies aren't at a point in the success cycle where long term future potential is really interesting to them.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    I would do that trade in a heartbeat for Hamels. But I seriously doubt they would do it. I think they would want an everyday player that is in MLB now. Hamilton doesn't fit that and Janish is uh.... well not an everyday player. Depending on how long they think Howard is going to be out Alonso might work. But I'm afraid they would want Bruce included with a bunch of prospects. Don't think I would do that.
    I just put it to the criteria the article provided:

    1. A replacement in the rotation (Bailey)
    2. Bullpen help (Masset- although I would rather sub Volquez here)
    3. Middle infield insurance (Janish)
    4. Athletes with upside (Hamilton, Rodriguez)

    Doesn't say they need an everyday position player coming back. If they did have interest in Alonso, I would do Alonso and Bailey straight up for Hamels.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Quote Originally Posted by MattyHo4Life View Post
    I agree, this is the type of move you make if you want to be a World Series contender. Hamels is a true TOR and will take a lot to get him. If winning the World Series is the goal, then this is a player you target. This is the type of trade that Jocketty is known for making.
    Yep, and as a longtime Cardinals fan, you would know both:

    1. The type of move you make if you want to be a World Series contender
    2. The type of trade that Jocketty is known for making
    Go BLUE!!!

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    What if Chapman was included in the trade?

    Bailey
    Chapman
    Hamilton
    Heisey
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    From an ESPN Insider article (I don't have a subscription so I don't know if the Reds had a hypotethical proposal or not...)



    What would that translate to from the Reds side?

    How about Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Nick Masset, Paul Janish and Yorman Rodriguez?

    Would you do that if you were the Reds? Would the Phillies?
    If I were the Reds? Hell yeah. The Phillies? No way. First of all, Hamels isn't going anywhere unless the Phillies are out of it by the All-Star break. That would be one of the most shocking things in baseball. But let's say the Phillies are somehow out of it in July . . .

    Is that a fair deal? I don't think so, but a lot of people might. However, you have to keep in mind that the Reds would be competing with at least a dozen other teams, and I'm sure that offer would be topped easily.

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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    If I were the Reds? Hell yeah. The Phillies? No way. First of all, Hamels isn't going anywhere unless the Phillies are out of it by the All-Star break. That would be one of the most shocking things in baseball. But let's say the Phillies are somehow out of it in July . . .

    Is that a fair deal? I don't think so, but a lot of people might. However, you have to keep in mind that the Reds would be competing with at least a dozen other teams, and I'm sure that offer would be topped easily.
    It's interesting that the first two responders to the thread said "No way" to the proposed trade from the Reds' standpoint.

    While it is true a lot of teams would be in competition, the Phillies may be reluctant to deal Hamels to a team they see as a true competitor, which could ironically/theoretically include teams like the Red Sox, Rangers, and Yankees (as well as the Cardinals, Brewers and Braves) before it included the Reds. Therefore, I could see the Reds having a realistic shot.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    From an ESPN Insider article (I don't have a subscription so I don't know if the Reds had a hypotethical proposal or not...)



    What would that translate to from the Reds side?

    How about Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Nick Masset, Paul Janish and Yorman Rodriguez?

    Would you do that if you were the Reds? Would the Phillies?
    When was the last time a trade with this much talent moved for one player?

    I don't think any GM in baseball trades his two biggest upside players in one deal. And then even adding two important pieces to the puzzle.

  15. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    I don't think the Phillies would be interested in Alonso, even with Howard out. Howard is signed for a long time and then they are just creating a situation where they have a guy who should be playing every day when Howard gets back that then they either need to play out of position or try to trade.

    I would be incredibly hesitant to trade both Hamilton and Rodriguez in the same deal, especially for a one and done type of player like I expect Hamels to be.

    Hamels is one of my favorite pitchers in the game and I would love to land him. Walt better at least be going to the Phillies at the winter meetings and asking what its going to take.

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    Re: "Let's Trade Cole Hamels"

    Keep hoarding prospects and the Reds can keep finishing third.

    We could have had Greinke for less last year.

    The difference between the Brewers, Cardinals and the Reds? The Brewers and Cardinals are willing to trade prospects to win.

    In the last three years, the Brewers have traded "top prospects" Matt LaPorta, Brett Lawrie, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress.

    The Cardinals have traded "top prospects" Brett Wallace, Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez, and several others.

    In exchange the Brewers got Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and CC Sabathia. The Cardinals got Matt Holliday, Edwin Jackson, Mark DeRosa, and two World Series titles.

    The Reds were willing to trade a "top prospect" for an impact player once in the last three years. It got them a division title they wouldn't have otherwise won. Other than that, I see a whole lot of status quo for the Reds.

    I'm not saying you should always trade prospects for impact players, but you need to know when to pull the trigger (and it needs to happen more than once every three years). Otherwise, you will never get your team to the next level. Unless they can extend Phillips and Votto, most are in agreement that the Reds have two years to compete for a World Championship before they will have to take on a Herculean rebuilding effort. 2012 is one of those years. Make it happen Walt.
    Last edited by Benihana; 11-17-2011 at 04:33 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!


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