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View Poll Results: What will Yonder Alonso OPS in 2012-2013?

Voters
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  • Greater than .840

    22 42.31%
  • .800-.840

    24 46.15%
  • Less than .800

    4 7.69%
  • It doesn't matter. He can't play anywhere except 1B.

    2 3.85%
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Thread: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

  1. #1
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    Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    IMO, if he can reasonably play LF and OPS over .840, you have to keep Yonder Alonso and trade other (minor league) chips for a pitcher.

    If he will not OPS over .840, he's not worth the trouble in LF and you should trade him for a frontline starter to improve the rotation.

    If he cannot play a passable LF, the Reds need to trade him now. I'm not interested in keeping a pinch-hitter/2014 replacement in lieu of trying to win these next two years.

    What do you think Yonder Alonso can reasonably OPS in the next two years?
    Go BLUE!!!

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Over .840. He has solid power and excellent plate discipline.

  4. #3
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Should stress that this question is what he will OPS in the next two years, not what will he OPS eventually/in his prime. I think that is an important distinction.

    I still maintain if he can play LF and OPS over .840 we should keep him. If he can't do both of those, then we should deal him.
    Go BLUE!!!

  5. #4
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Maybe .840 or so in the next two years, higher--perhaps much higher--than that eventually. Reds will regret trading him. Period.

  6. #5
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Over .840. When the Reds finally allow him to play every day - even in LF - his offensive numbers will be consistently good, and his defense might improve enough to be passable in LF.

    As long as Stubbs and Bruce are the other two OF's, the outfield defense will be OK.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

  7. #6
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    The two voters for UNDER .800. Please expand on your opinions here.

  8. #7
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    I voted .800 to .840 but for at least the next couple years, it will be closer to .800 than .840.

    Look at what some of the touted young 1B bats OPS'ed in 2011

    Freddie Freeman .784
    Mark Trumbo .768
    Justin Smoak .719
    Eric Hosmer .799
    Mitch Moreland .733
    Daric Barton .592
    Brandon Allen .616
    Brandon Belt .718
    Brett Wallace .703
    Anthony Rizzo .523
    Paul Goldschmidt .808


    I'm fairly Bullish on Alonso's bat, but an OPS above .840 is pretty hard to do and .800 even would top most of these guys. I think it would be crazy to plan the team around Alonso doing much more than .800 the first couple of years. GABP will help, but its still a lot to assume.
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  9. #8
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Assuming Alonso is going to OPS in the low .800 range in 2012 and have a career path that will lead to the mid to high .800 range would put Alonso to be worth around 25 fWAR over the next 6 years. The only SP I have seen the Reds linked to that they could get similar production out of is Michael Pineda. This is kind of off subject, but after reading the thread I spent a little time looking at the fWAR/OPS leader boards from 2011 and I'm becoming a fan of keeping young Yonder.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  10. #9
    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Should stress that this question is what he will OPS in the next two years, not what will he OPS eventually/in his prime. I think that is an important distinction.
    Yep. I would have voted for .840 plus otherwise. I'd still likely go for around.800-.820 next season, .840 plus the year after.

  11. #10
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The two voters for UNDER .800. Please expand on your opinions here.
    I misread the question. I thought it was for next year only.
    I would not be surprised if he OPSed 800-840. It's certainly possible.
    I think he's going to go through the typical learning curve however.

    I have him penciled in for around 800 next year, and I hope I am underestimating him. Just a gut feeling, not that it's defensible or a sure thing.

    I would love to package him for a starting pitcher. I would consider trading him for a closer as well. The big problem is not Yonder's lack of ability, but playing him in LF is not ideal. I'd rather trade him to a team that needs a DH/1b while the world thinks he's a potential 900 OPS bat (if that perception is indeed true).

    IMO, Alonso is basically a first year player. It's hard to OPS 800+ in your first year. Not impossible, but hard.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  12. #11
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I voted .800 to .840 but for at least the next couple years, it will be closer to .800 than .840.

    Look at what some of the touted young 1B bats OPS'ed in 2011

    Freddie Freeman .784 - Much younger than Alonso
    Mark Trumbo .768 - No plate discipline at all
    Justin Smoak .719 - Plays in Safeco
    Eric Hosmer .799 - Much younger than Alonso
    Mitch Moreland .733
    Daric Barton .592 - Has no power and plays in Oaklands massive stadium
    Brandon Allen .616 - Strikes out 35% of the time he steps to the plate
    Brandon Belt .718 - Younger than Alonso, struggled to make contact and in SF's large stadium
    Brett Wallace .703 - Has no power and struggles to make contact
    Anthony Rizzo .523 - Much younger than Alonso
    Paul Goldschmidt .808 - Struck out 30% of the time he stepped to the plate


    I'm fairly Bullish on Alonso's bat, but an OPS above .840 is pretty hard to do and .800 even would top most of these guys. I think it would be crazy to plan the team around Alonso doing much more than .800 the first couple of years. GABP will help, but its still a lot to assume.
    Your list of comparables aren't really that comparable to Alonso for many reasons. Some guys can't make contact. Some guys are 3-4 years younger than he is. Some guys don't have much power at all. Some suffer from multiple of those issues.

  13. #12
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Based on what I saw at the end of last year, no amount of hard work and training could get Alonso to a level of defensive proficiency that I think is required of a major league LF.

    To be fair, I thought the same thing of Gomes, and the Reds went to the playoffs with him in LF for most games.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #13
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    This is tough. If he had 600 PAs next year, I'd be surprised (pleasantly of course) if he OPSed over .850. I think long-term, he may OPS in the .860-.870 range.

  15. #14
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Your list of comparables aren't really that comparable to Alonso for many reasons. Some guys can't make contact. Some guys are 3-4 years younger than he is. Some guys don't have much power at all. Some suffer from multiple of those issues.
    My list is a realistic view of guys who are considered valuable young 1B, some of whom have been much more highly touted than Alonso. Fans of these organizations were surely having thoughts of MVP caliber offense dancing in their heads just as we do with Alonso. I have high hopes for Alonso. I think he may one day be a .950 to 1.000 OPS bat, but that is what I'm hoping for. The mistake that I think many make (me included) is that we plan for players to perform as we hope they will. I hope Alonso is an MVP caliber bat on par with Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera. Its a realistic hope IMO, but its not what I'd plan for. For planning purposes, I'll assume an OPS of around .800 and realize that, based on the history of highly touted young can't miss players coming up way short after they've had some time for major league pitchers to face them and adjust to them, even that is a fairly optimistic outcome when all the possibilities are considered.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #15
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Predict Yonder Alonso's OPS

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My list is a realistic view of guys who are considered valuable young 1B, some of whom have been much more highly touted than Alonso. Fans of these organizations were surely having thoughts of MVP caliber offense dancing in their heads just as we do with Alonso. I have high hopes for Alonso. I think he may one day be a .950 to 1.000 OPS bat, but that is what I'm hoping for. The mistake that I think many make (me included) is that we plan for players to perform as we hope they will. I hope Alonso is an MVP caliber bat on par with Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera. Its a realistic hope IMO, but its not what I'd plan for. For planning purposes, I'll assume an OPS of around .800 and realize that, based on the history of highly touted young can't miss players coming up way short after they've had some time for major league pitchers to face them and adjust to them, even that is a fairly optimistic outcome when all the possibilities are considered.
    The problem you are having though is that you are not really using good comparables for Alonso. Comparing a 20-22 year old prospect to a guy who will be 25 next year is not a comparable player even if both are highly touted prospects. Comparing him to guys like Daric Barton who has no power or guys like Brandon Allen, Mark Trumbo, Brett Wallace and Paul Goldschmidt who either have plate discipline problems or contact problems isn't really a comparable player either.

    If you want to find a list of comparable players to Alonso, you need to find guys with solid power, good walk rates and a contact rate in the 15-18% range who will be in their 24-25 age season. You can't cite history if you aren't using the correct framework.


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