A low-cost Gio Gonzalez alternative

[RedsManRick]

I wonder if we can somehow get our hands on this guy...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...z-alternative/

In talking with Dan Szymborski about projecting pitchers, he noted that he’s found that the weights that work best are something in the 8/5/4/2 range for players whose prior four year totals stretch back prior to age 24. In other words, the projection will count the most recent year as 42% of the total, 26% for the second most recent year, 21% for the third most recent, and 11% for the fourth most recent.

Running the last four year totals using these weights to give more influence to the most recent years, we come out with the following results:

Gonzalez
BB%: 11.0%
K%: 22.1%
GB%: 48.1%
BABIP: .292
LOB%: 75.6%
xFIP-: 94

Low Cost Alternative
BB%: 12.9%
K%: 22.9%
GB%: 50.6%
BABIP: .291
LOB%: 72.2%
xFIP-: 100

Put me in the camp that says the takeaway here is to stay away from Gio...

[traderumor]

The author noted the different directions in accumulating similar numbers, but didn't note the influence of injury on Volquez.

[RedsManRick]

The author noted the different directions in accumulating similar numbers, but didn't note the influence of injury on Volquez.

Two thoughts:

1.) The basic profile of him as a pitcher hasn't changed. He's always had electric stuff that he struggles to locate. Yes, he's struggled more since the injury, but he's not fundamentally different.

2.) He threw nearly 200 innings last year. At what point do we just start treating his performance as indicative of his talent level again?

You can debate the nuances of the article, but the basic premise holds. Both guys have similar skill sets and yet are valued extremely differently. Sure, there are a number of debates to be had at the margin, but there's no way we should treat Gio like an ace and Volquez like a scrub. Something has to give.

[REDREAD]

I don't want Gio.
Someone made an excellent point.
We already have 3 "wildcards" with potential ace stuff.. Bailey, Chapman, Volquez. Plus Arroyo is another wildcard at this point (not a potential ace, but it's uncertain what we will get out of him next year).

We need a 200 IP 4.00 ERA guy that can consistently put up quality starts more than yet another potential ace that might wash out.

[Rojo]

Someone made an excellent point.
We already have 3 "wildcards" with potential ace stuff.. Bailey, Chapman, Volquez. Plus Arroyo is another wildcard at this point (not a potential ace, but it's uncertain what we will get out of him next year).

We need a 200 IP 4.00 ERA guy that can consistently put up quality starts more than yet another potential ace that might wash out.

I made the point in another thread that maybe we should go with strike-throwing starters. Sign Mark Buehrle to go with Leake, Cueto, Arroyo and maybe Wood. Then we can bring the heat out of the pen -- Bailey, Volquez, Chapman. If one of those three makes his way into the rotation, great.

[mth123]

I don't want Gio.
Someone made an excellent point.
We already have 3 "wildcards" with potential ace stuff.. Bailey, Chapman, Volquez. Plus Arroyo is another wildcard at this point (not a potential ace, but it's uncertain what we will get out of him next year).

We need a 200 IP 4.00 ERA guy that can consistently put up quality starts more than yet another potential ace that might wash out.

Not sure if it was me who you remember, but that is certainly what I believe as well. This rotation needs less to dream about and more to count on.

[REDREAD]

Not sure who said it, especially now after two beers
But it's an excellent point. Let's hope Walt can find a guy like that.

[Vottomatic]

Didn't Randy Johnson struggle with control early in his career?

I would bet a few of these guys eventually get their control under wraps. And if they have good stuff, might be worth it.