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Thread: Ryan Braun fails drug test

  1. #136
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    I think I read that there is a 4% failure rate for this particular method of testing.
    Do we even know for certain what test we're talking about right now?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #137
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    I'm just going on what you said above, which is "It is to suspend judgment until you have... facts." I'm just pointing out that there are a lot of facts to draw conclusions at this point, starting with the failed test.
    Okay, I probably should have written "all the facts" there.

    I completely agree with you when you say that Braun should get the opportunity to release all of the facts here. However, I think it's unfair to say that people are drawing conclusions as to his innocence or guilt without any foundation. There are a lot of facts out there already, all of which weigh heavily against Braun. Knowing what I know, I feel comfortable saying Braun is probably guilty here. However, I am more than willing to eat crow if Braun shows otherwise. In fact, I hope I have to eat crow here. This is bad for baseball no matter how you spin it.
    I don't think I've seen anyone argue he is undoubtedly innocent in this thread. There are, however, a lot of folks proclaiming his guilt. I don't believe I ever claimed that there was no foundation for guilty claims -- only that they seemed hastily drawn. Of course, as the evidence mounts in different reports, those become less so...
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  4. #138
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Okay, I probably should have written "all the facts" there.



    I don't think I've seen anyone argue he is undoubtedly innocent in this thread. There are, however, a lot of folks proclaiming his guilt. I don't believe I ever claimed that there was no foundation for guilty claims -- only that they seemed hastily drawn. Of course, as the evidence mounts in different reports, those become less so...
    He is guilty. Both sides have admitted he tested positive to a banned substance. That's guilty as far as Major League Baseball's rules on drugs are concerned. There's really no wiggle room in that statement.

    It remains to be seen if he was trying to gain a competitive advantage and we don't know what substance he's guilty of having in his system, or why, but his guilt isn't in question. He tested positive to a banned substance. There's no wiggle room on that... as neither side disputes that information.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #139
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    I think the end of the article cited by wolfboy above makes my point succinctly again:

    For now, as the baseball world digests the news of Braun’s positive test, experts also stressed the importance of avoiding fast conclusions. Baseball has never overturned a case, but appeals in other sports have seen some degrees of success.

    “It’s important to remember a full legal process is afforded before a determination is made on someone’s guilt or innocence,” said Travis Tygart, the chief executive of the United States Anti-Doping Agency. “We should respect that process before making any judgments. It’s unfair to do otherwise.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/sp...ll-battle.html
    Last edited by RedEye; 12-12-2011 at 10:17 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #140
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    At this moment one side (MLB) has yet to make an official statement about any test and the other side (Braun) has proclaimed "BS" in reference to an unknown test of something.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #141
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    At this moment one side (MLB) has yet to make an official statement about any test and the other side (Braun) has proclaimed "BS" in reference to an unknown test of something.
    Given the history of the matter at hand, I'm not sure that the BS statement holds any amount of water. Not that it is impossible but I think we can show a pattern of false statements by users if we wanted to.

  8. #142
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    He is guilty. Both sides have admitted he tested positive to a banned substance. That's guilty as far as Major League Baseball's rules on drugs are concerned. There's really no wiggle room in that statement.
    Everything I have read says that Braun's camp is claiming the first test was a "false positive." Wouldn't that claim -- if true -- give wiggle room?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  9. #143
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Does Braun suffer from depression of an immune deficiency which would legitimize increasing testosterone levels?
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  10. #144
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I don't think I've seen anyone argue he is undoubtedly innocent in this thread. There are, however, a lot of folks proclaiming his guilt. I don't believe I ever claimed that there was no foundation for guilty claims -- only that they seemed hastily drawn. Of course, as the evidence mounts in different reports, those become less so...
    Fair enough. I still feel comfortable saying "guilty" with what's out there, but I'm more than willing to eat crow if I'm wrong.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  11. #145
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I think the end of the article cited by wolfboy above makes my point succinctly again:



    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/sp...ll-battle.html
    What I got from the article is that things do not look good for Mr. Braun right now, but you can never say never.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  12. #146
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    At this moment one side (MLB) has yet to make an official statement about any test and the other side (Braun) has proclaimed "BS" in reference to an unknown test of something.
    I'm not understanding why you consider a logical discussion as out of order here.
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  13. #147
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I'm not understanding why you consider a logical discussion as out of order here.
    When was that argued? And how isn't one occurring?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #148
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Regarding false positives, it's like any kind of outlier. Yes, it's rare. But it does happen. If you reject everything that has a 95% confidence level, you're going to be wrong 5% of the time.

    Just for the sake of argument, let's make a few assumptions:

    1. The first test produces a false positive 10% of the time.
    2. The second test produces a false positive 1% of the time.
    3. Every active major leaguer is subjected to testing twice per year -- ~1200 testing cases.

    So of those 1200, 120 result in a false positive and go to the 2nd test. Of those 120, 1 or 2 of them result in a false positive and are banned for 50 games. Under such a system, an average of 1 innocent player per year will be found guilty and banned despite being completely innocent.

    This says nothing about the Braun case other than to suggest that it is absolutely possible that he's completely innocent even if he legitimately failed both tests and there was no foul play involved.

    I'm not suggesting he should be let off on that logic, but unless the false positive rates are much lower (which would surprise me), those who are jumping to conclusions are showing bias. Though I'm also guessing that people are conflating "he will suspended" with "he actually cheated".

    I think we can be relatively confident, based on the facts that have been presented so far, that he's going to be suspended. I do not think that we can say with similar confidence that he actually cheated.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #149
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think we can be relatively confident, based on the facts that have been presented so far, that he's going to be suspended. I do not think that we can say with similar confidence that he actually cheated.
    That's a very fair point. I firmly believe he has next to zero chance of avoiding a suspension under the MLB policy. However, he could offer a plausible explanation for the positive test result that could go a long way in repairing his image in the public eye.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  16. #150
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun fails drug test

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Regarding false positives, it's like any kind of outlier. Yes, it's rare. But it does happen. If you reject everything that has a 95% confidence level, you're going to be wrong 5% of the time.

    Just for the sake of argument, let's make a few assumptions:

    1. The first test produces a false positive 10% of the time.
    2. The second test produces a false positive 1% of the time.
    3. Every active major leaguer is subjected to testing twice per year -- ~1200 testing cases.

    So of those 1200, 120 result in a false positive and go to the 2nd test. Of those 120, 1 or 2 of them result in a false positive and are banned for 50 games. Under such a system, an average of 1 innocent player per year will be found guilty and banned despite being completely innocent.

    This says nothing about the Braun case other than to suggest that it is absolutely possible that he's completely innocent even if he legitimately failed both tests and there was no foul play involved.

    I'm not suggesting he should be let off on that logic, but unless the false positive rates are much lower (which would surprise me), those who are jumping to conclusions are showing bias. Though I'm also guessing that people are conflating "he will suspended" with "he actually cheated".

    I think we can be relatively confident, based on the facts that have been presented so far, that he's going to be suspended. I do not think that we can say with similar confidence that he actually cheated.
    False positive rates on those tests are significantly lower than your assumptions. Test with that high of a failure rate would never be used at a professional level, since as your logic proves, they would provide way too many cases of innocent people indicted.

    I don't know that rates for these tests, but I get tested on a regular basis for certain health issues, and I was warned that these tests, which are similar to the first test, have an error rate of around 1.25%, which, given the frequency of my test, actually is still significant.

    So when elevated levels are detected, just like with the drug tests, my doctors do a second round of testing in the same sample, with a different, much more expensive method, just to be sure. That second method, they say, is almost never in error. I was never given a number, but I assume it's a fraction of the 1.25% error rate of th first test.

    I have no idea if this is the same numbers with drug testing, but I would think if it was like you said, no union would ever allow it, and no court would ever uphold it's findings.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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